Statistics for the 5th Zurich Chess Challenge

2/11/2016 – With just one day left before the start of the 2016 Zurich Chess Challenge people are asking: who has the best overall chances, who will be the ultimate winners. The event has a "new classic" (one hour per side) format, so one has to delve into many results of the players in different game formats to find an answer. This was done by the organizers in a wonderful collection of statistics.

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5th Zurich Chess Challenge 2016 – statistics

From 12 to 15 February 2016 world chess elite players will be in Zurich, for the fifth edition of the Zurich Chess Challenge at the Hotel Savoy Baur en Ville. It is organized by the oldest chess club in the world, the Schachgesellschaft Zürich, and sponsored by Oleg Skvortsov, owner of the International Gemological Laboratories in Moscow, who is experimenting with a new classical time control: 40 minutes per game with a 10 second increment for each move.

With just one day left before the start of the 2016 Zurich Chess Challenge we bring you some wonderful statistics, provided by the organisers.

Classical statistics crosstable

First of all we will look at how the players perform against each other in classical time controls. The horizontal rows show the results of each player with the white pieces while the columns present the corresponding headups with black.

 
Kramnik
Nakamura
Anand
Shirov
Aronian
Giri
Kramnik
**
+2 =4 -3
+7 =32 -4
+10 =15 -3
+5 =9 -1
+5 =0 -0
Nakamura
+2 =4 -2
**
+2 =4 -0
+2 =0 -0
+4 =6 -2
+2 =11 -1
Anand
+6 =34 -0
+1 =6 -4
**
+12 =9 -1
+2 =10 -4
+0 =5 -0
Shirov
+9 =13 -5
+0 =1 -0
+1 =18 -4
**
+0 =7 -2
+1 =5 -1
Aronian
+3 =15 -2
+9 =6 -2
+5 =13 -2
+3 =6 -0
**
+1 =4 -0
Giri
+0 =4 -1
+1 =7 -1
+1 =4 -0
+3 =2 -0
+0 =5 -3
**

Calculating all individual results together, it's a little surprising to see the Armenian Levon Aronian clearly ahead of his rivals. Four percentage points are quite a gap at that level. On second to fourth place the performance of Nakamura, Kramnik and Anand is almost equal, while Giri and especially Shirov are well below 50%. However, as usual these statistics have to be treated with a little caution: Giri's negative score mainly arises from his disastrous results against Kramnik and Aronian, while Anand can undoubtedly be called Shirov's personal nemesis, as his overall performance is clearly in the Indian's favour (+13 =27 –2).

Classical ranking according to percentages

# Player
+ / = / -
Total
Percentage
1 Aronian
+33 =81 -17
73,5/131
56,1%
2 Nakamura
+22 =49 -18
46,5/89
52,2%
3 Kramnik
+39 =130 -31
104/200
52%
4 Anand
+31 =135 -25
98,5/191
51,6%
5 Giri
+7 =47 -14
30,5/68
44,9%
6 Shirov
+15 =76 =42
43/133
39,8%

Considering the time control that is applied in Zurich this year, the results for Rapid Chess are also highly interesting. Not surprisingly, the overall performance sees Anand clearly in front, followed by Aronian and Nakamura. Kramnik is a little below the 50% line, while Giri and Shirov can be found at the bottom of the table again. However, the results are a little distorted, as "old hands" as Anand and Kramnik have more than 100 recorded rapid games in the databases, while Giri has only played 18 "official" encounters so far.

Rapid statistics crosstable

 
Kramnik
Nakamura
Anand
Shirov
Aronian
Giri
Kramnik
**
+1 =2 -1
+4 =29 -4
+4 =7 -2
+5 =5 -2
+0 =3 -1
Nakamura
+1 =2 -3
**
+3 =1 -0
+0 =0 -0
+1 =2 -3
+1 =1 -0
Anand
+9 =24 -4
+0 =1 -0
**
+7 =16 -1
+4 =6 -2
+1 =1 -1
Shirov
+5 =7 -3
+0 =1 -0
+3 =10 -8
**
+0 =0 -0
+0 =0 -0
Aronian
+6 =3 -2
+1 =3 -3
+4 =5 -2
+0 =1 -0
**
+1 =0 -0
Giri
+1 =2 -1
+1 =0 -0
+0 =1 -1
+0 =0 -0
+0 =0 -1
**

Rapid ranking according to percentages

# Player
+ / = / -
Total
Percentage
1 Anand
+36 =93 -22
82,5/151
54,6%
2 Aronian
+20 =24 -17
32/61
52,5%
3 Nakamura
+10 =13 -9
16,5/32
51,6%
4 Kramnik
+27 =84 -32
69/143
48,3%
5 Giri
+4 =8 -6
8/18
44,4%
6 Shirov
+11 =42 -22
32/75
42,7%

Blitz is and has always been an important part of the Zurich Chess Challenge. The overall winner is determined by the rapid games, where a win is awarded two points and a draw one, and the blitz games, where win and draw count one, and half a point respectively.

Not surprisingly, Blitz rather favours the indisputed ICC bullet champion Hikaru Nakamura, who is clearly ahead of his rivals by scoring a whopping 60.4% out of 48 games. Giri is now in second place, still clearly above the 50% line, followed by Kramnik with 51.3%. One who is probably not expected to be at the bottom of the table is Viswanathan Anand with only 38.6%, which is mainly due to his very bad score against Nakamura and Giri (+2 =3 –7).

Blitz statistics crosstable

 
Kramnik
Nakamura
Anand
Shirov
Aronian
Giri
Kramnik
**
+1 =0 -1
+2 =5 -1
+2 =3 -0
+2 =1 -0
+0 =0 -1
Nakamura
+1 =2 -1
**
+3 =0 -0
+0 =0 -0
+9 =4 -1
+2 =1 -0
Anand
+3 =1 -2
+2 =3 -1
**
+0 =1 -0
+1 =1 -0
+0 =0 -1
Shirov
+1 =1 -1
+0 =1 -0
+0 =0 -1
**
+0 =0 -0
+0 =0 -0
Aronian
+2 =1 -2
+4 =6 -2
+2 =2 -1
+0 =0 -0
**
+2 =2 -0
Giri
+1 =1 -0
+1 =1 -1
+2 =0 -0
+0 =0 -0
+1 =0 -0
**

Blitz ranking according to percentages

# Player
+ / = / -
Total
Percentage
1 Nakamura
+20 =18 -10
29/48
60,4%
2 Giri
+7 =5 -5
9,5/17
55,9%
3 Kramnik
+12 =15 -11
19,5/38
51,3%
4 Aronian
+11 =17 -18
19,5/46
42,4%
5 Anand
+9 =13 -13
13,5/35
38,6%
6 Shirov
+1 =6 -4
4/11
36,3%

And finally the inevitable: An overall ranking table with all points of all three time controls brutally put together. According to these calculations, the American Hikaru Nakamura is a slight favorite to win the tournament - and indeed that's what he already did last year. But already a short glance at the bottom of the table makes it clear that it's not that simple – the Latvian Wizard Alexei Shirov will definitely not enter the stage of the Savoy Baur en Ville just to be the sacrificial lamb. We wouldn't be surprised if things turn out quite differently in the end ... and we're looking forward to an exciting weekend of world class chess!

Overall ranking according to percentages

#
Player
Total
Percentage
1
Nakamura
92/169
54,4%
2
Aronian
125/238
52,5%
3
Anand
194,5/377
51,6%
4
Kramnik
192,5/381
50,5%
5
Giri
48/103
46,6%
6
Shirov
79/219
36,1%

Poll: win a valuable prize

Predict who will emerge as victor of this year's Zurich Challenge. You can vote – only once! – until 12:00 noon European time on Saturday February 13, three hours before the start of the first round.

2016zurichwinner

You need to have a ChessBase Account to participate and win an interesting prize – a copy of Fritz 15 signed by all the participants of the 2016 Zurich Chess Challenge.

The prize will be awarded to a voter chosen at random from those who have selected the correct winner.

Links

The games will be broadcast live on the official web site and on the chess server Playchess.com. If you are not a member you can download a free Playchess client there and get immediate access. You can also use ChessBase 12 or any of our Fritz compatible chess programs.


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MagicMagnus MagicMagnus 2/13/2016 05:38
Go Aronian!
salem abdelaziz salem abdelaziz 2/12/2016 03:22
Nakamura
Kenster Kenster 2/12/2016 12:59
I suspect Nakamura or Aronian might win, but Giri could also sneak in. Surprises may happen though :p !
chessram chessram 2/11/2016 10:00
some of the numbers dont add up ... i think the writer did not proof read :-). A good statistical perspective to the tournament never the less
MJFitch MJFitch 2/11/2016 06:43
Giri will finally take some chances and win!!!
Balthus Balthus 2/11/2016 06:13
Good luck Lev! Glory to Armenia!
TMMM TMMM 2/11/2016 05:40
Strange that they add up statistics for different opponents, instead of taking averages over averages which should clearly be preferred. If player 1 scores 60-40 against player 2 in 100 games and 0-20 against player 3 in 20 games, I would say his odds against player 2 are 60% and against player 3 are 0%, so you'd expect him to score on average 0.6 points in 2 games. The analysis above would say player 1 scored 60/120 games in total, giving him an expected 50% score (1.0/2) overall. I think statisticians will shiver seeing the above "analysis".

And of course the entire analysis does not take into account recent form; scoring 10-0 in the first 10 games and then 0-10 in the last 10 games, the head-to-head would be 10-10 but one player would be the clear favorite.
ayushsyna ayushsyna 2/11/2016 05:08
East or West Anand is the BEST
ayushsyna ayushsyna 2/11/2016 05:08
East or West Anand is the BEST
jainaarvi jainaarvi 2/11/2016 03:22
Nakamura is in form
digupagal digupagal 2/11/2016 03:03
Form is temporary, 'vishy' is permanent.
digupagal digupagal 2/11/2016 03:01
Form is temporary 'vishy' is permanent.
vinniethepooh vinniethepooh 2/11/2016 01:22
Although I am not a BIG fan of Kramnik,he is recently playing great mixtures of chess in form of attacking and torturing.He has the most chance.Vishy is out of form and it's unlikely he will win.Aronian has chances,but he is not consistent.Giri is another favourite.Nakamura....hmm.I don't like this guy.As for Shirov,he is not gonna win,but he might create a sacrificial masterpiece or something!


richard_l_jones richard_l_jones 2/11/2016 11:19
Nakamura
ulyssesganesh ulyssesganesh 2/11/2016 10:49
vishy come on!!!! and win the zurich!

veni! vedi! vishy!
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