Ovi-ready

by Jonathan Speelman
4/18/2021 – With the Candidates Tournament resuming this week, all eyes are turning to Yekaterinburg. Bravely, star columnist Jon Speelman decided to add his voice to the hubbub of predictions, “thus preparing to get egg all over my face or, as you might say, becoming Ovi-ready”. Who do you think will be Magnus Carlsen’s next challenger? | Image: FIDE

Winning starts with what you know
The new version 18 offers completely new possibilities for chess training and analysis: playing style analysis, search for strategic themes, access to 6 billion Lichess games, player preparation by matching Lichess games, download Chess.com games with built-in API, built-in cloud engine and much more.

Predictions, predictions

[Note that Jon Speelman also looks at the content of the article in video format, here embedded at the end of the article.]

With the Candidates Tournament resuming the day after this comes out, all eyes are turning to Yekaterinburg. So I thought, perhaps somewhat foolishly, that I’d add my voice to the hubbub of predictions, thus preparing to get egg all over my face or, as you might say, becoming “Ovi-ready”.

More than a year after the first half, this is almost a completely separate tournament, which feels like a race with significant handicaps. The standings have been reprised in many places elsewhere, so I’ll just run down the list starting with the two leaders, Ian Nepomniachtchi and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave.

Nepo has had quite a good year online and also won the Russian Championship over the board in Moscow in December. His last outing at the Magnus Carlsen Invitational was impressive, especially in the way that he coped with Carlsen in the semifinal, fighting for his life when necessary but being prepared to change gear and go for the win when Carlsen over-pressed. This was reminiscent of Anatoly Karpov in his pomp and bodes well for the Candidates.

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Ian Nepomniachtchi | Photo: FIDE

MV-L in contrast has had a less good year. When he did play over the board in Wijk aan Zee he finished near the bottom, perhaps because he was trying to protect his openings. But those openings came under fire at Wijk anyway, and in particular he lost twice within two rounds on the black side of the Poison Pawn — to Nils Grandelius and then Fabiano Caruana. Of course, he’s had plenty of time to repair it and/or prepare escape pod(s) to other openings. But it is a real worry for a player who has been scary in an opening for years when the fear starts to transfer to them.   

Of the four a point behind, Caruana surely has the best chance. Although his online results weren’t fantastic, that is only of limited relevance. Admittedly, there is quite a lot of correlation between classical chess and internet rapidplay, but this decreases markedly when you move on to blitz and almost disappears in the video game which chess players call bullet.  Incidentally, I wonder whether readers have noticed that the really macho boys have nowadays started to play quite a lot of 30-second chess and that, unsurprisingly, Alireza Firouzja is fantastic at this.  

Much more importantly, regarding the Candidates, Caruana was in very decent form over the board in Wijk ann Zee coming third equal. He is terrifying when he gets on a roll and in top form could be almost unstoppable.

Anish Giri arrives on the back of victory in the final of the Carlsen Invitational and, much more important, first equal — though he lost the play-off with Jorden Van Foreest — over the board in Wijk. He has made himself a much more overtly aggressive player over the last year and must have a decent chance of winning, though I think less than Caruana.

Anish Giri, Fabiano Caruana

In the hunt — Anish Giri and Fabiano Caruana | Photo: Lennart Ootes / FIDE 

Of the eight players in Yekaterinburg, Alexander Grischuk plays perhaps the most enigmatic chess with a penchant for winding the opponent up, which chimes with my own style years ago. He’ll certainly win some games in the second half but will probably lose some as well, which I suspect will put him out of contention for first. In contrast, Wang Hao seemed still to be establishing himself a year ago and was rather drawish. If he remains the same, then he won’t score enough wins to challenge for first.  

Which leaves the final two a further point behind: Ding Liren and the bottom seed Kirill Alekseenko.

Alekseenko surely has less chance of winning from this position than Leicester City did of winning the Premiership, the year they created their massive shock. Ding though does have some chance if he gets off to a terrific start and has a perfect tournament. His bad form in the first half was certainly partly the result of the quarantine he had to endure in Moscow before travelling to Yekaterinburg, and I presume that more sensible arrangements have been made this time. He’s a fantastic player and his lousy form in internet chess over the last year is hardly relevant when you realize that he was playing long “days” of chess starting at about midnight in his time zone.

Overall, I think that Nepo is  favourite to become Carlsen’s next challenger followed by Caruana and MV-L together; Giri; Grischuk; Ding and Wang Hao; and Alekseenko. I’m not a betting man and didn’t initially think in terms of probabilities, but we might as well assign some percentages to them something like 27; 20, 20; 15; 10; 4, 4; and “0” (it’s certainly less than 1/100 that Aleksienko will win). From Monday we’ll find out, and I await oviform rebukes when I turn out to have been totally mistaken.

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave in good spirits during Sunday’s press conference | Photo: Lennart Ootes / FIDE

To conclude, three possibly relevant over-the-board games from the last year:

 
New ...
Open...
Share...
Layout...
Flip Board
Settings
MoveNResultEloPlayers
Replay and check the LiveBook here
1.e4       c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6 6.Bg5 e6 7.f4 Qb6 8.Qd2 Qxb2 9.Rb1 Qa3 10.Be2 Two rounds earlier Nils Grandelius had played the main line against MV-L and had won that game, though there is a clear improvement for Black in the next diagram. 10.f5 Be7 11.fxe6 Bxe6 12.Nxe6 fxe6 13.Bc4 Nbd7 14.Bxe6 Nc5 15.Bb3 Rc8 16.0-0 Nxb3 17.Rxb3 Qc5+ 18.Be3 Qc4 19.Rf4
Grandelius v MV-L: the critical position where MV-L overestimated his chances. 19...Qe6? 19...Nh5 20.Rf3 Nf6 20.Rxb7 0-0 21.h3 Rb8 22.Ra7 Ra8 23.Rxa8 Rxa8 24.Nd5 Rb8 25.c4 Bd8 26.Qf2 Nd7 27.Bd4 Bg5 28.Rf5 Bh6 29.Kh2 Rc8 30.Qg3 g6 31.Qh4 Bf8 32.Rf6! Qe8 32...Nxf6 33.Nxf6+ Kf7 34.Qxh7+ Bg7 35.Ng4 Rg8 36.Nh6+ Kf8 37.Bxg7+ Rxg7 38.Qh8+ 33.Rxf8+! Qxf8 34.Ne7+ Kf7 35.Nxc8 1-0 (35) Grandelius,N (2663)-Vachier Lagrave,M (2784) Wijk aan Zee NED 2021
10...Nc6 11.Nxc6 bxc6 12.e5 Nd5 13.Nxd5
13...exd5? Of course, it would be almost impossible to judge in a game, but I and more importantly my engine believe that cxd5 should be just about alright, though future games may prove otherwise. 13...cxd5 14.0-0 h6 15.Bh4 dxe5 16.fxe5 Be7 16...Qa4? 17.c4 Bc5+ 18.Kh1 0-0 19.Rb3 dxc4 20.Rg3 c3 21.Bf6 21.Qxh6 17.Rb3 Qc5+ 18.Bf2 Qc7 19.Rg3 Bg5 20.Qd4 20.Be3 Qxe5 20.Rxg5 hxg5 21.Qxg5 f5 22.Bh5+ 22.exf6?? Qxh2# 22...Kf8 Black should (allegedly) be able to consolidate here. 20...0-0 21.h4 Bd8 22.Be3 f5 23.Bxh6 Rf7 23...Qb6? 24.Rxg7+ Kh8 25.c3 24.c4 14.e6! This vicious blow destroys Black's position. f6 14...fxe6 15.f5 e5 16.0-0 and for example: h6 17.f6 hxg5 18.fxg7 Bxg7 19.Qxg5 Qc5+ 20.Kh1 Qa7 21.Qg6+ Kd8 22.Rf7 14...Bxe6 15.0-0 Qc5+ 16.Kh1 Bf5 17.Rb7 Be4 18.c4 f6 19.Qb2 fxg5 20.Bh5+ Kd8 21.Rb8+ Rxb8 22.Qxb8+ Kd7 23.Qb7+ Kd8 24.Bg4 15.Bh5+ Kd8 16.Bh4 d4 17.Bf2 Qc3 18.f5 Qxd2+ 19.Kxd2 c5 19...g6 20.Bxd4 Bh6+ 21.Kd3 Ke7 22.Bf3 20.Bf3 Ra7 21.g4
Although Black is a pawn up, the e6 pawn is so strong that White has a huge advantage. 21...g6 22.Bh4 Be7 23.Rb6 h5 24.h3 Ke8 25.Bg3 Rc7 26.Kd3 hxg4 27.hxg4 Rxh1 28.Bxh1 gxf5 29.gxf5 Bf8 30.Kc4 Rh7 31.Be4 Be7 32.Bxd6 Bxd6 33.Rxd6 Bb7 34.Bxb7 Rxb7 35.Rxa6 Rb2 36.Kxc5 Rxc2+ 37.Kxd4
1–0
  • Start an analysis engine:
  • Try maximizing the board:
  • Use the four cursor keys to replay the game. Make moves to analyse yourself.
  • Press Ctrl-B to rotate the board.
  • Drag the split bars between window panes.
  • Download&Clip PGN/GIF/FEN/QR Codes. Share the game.
  • Games viewed here will automatically be stored in your cloud clipboard (if you are logged in). Use the cloud clipboard also in ChessBase.
  • Create an account to access the games cloud.
WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Caruana,F2823Vachier Lagrave,M27841–02021B9783rd Tata Steel Masters7.4
Nepomniachtchi,I2784Karjakin,S27521–02020E2073rd ch-RUS 20207.1
Giri,A2764Wojtaszek,R27051–02021A4583rd Tata Steel Masters10.5

Select an entry from the list to switch between games



The Ruy Lopez is one of the oldest openings which continues to enjoy high popularity from club level to the absolute world top. In this video series, American super GM Fabiano Caruana, talking to IM Oliver Reeh, presents a complete repertoire for White.


Links


Jonathan Speelman, born in 1956, studied mathematics but became a professional chess player in 1977. He was a member of the English Olympic team from 1980–2006 and three times British Champion. He played twice in Candidates Tournaments, reaching the semi-final in 1989. He twice seconded a World Championship challenger: Nigel Short and then Viswanathan Anand against Garry Kasparov in London 1993 and New York 1995.

Discuss

Rules for reader comments

 
 

Not registered yet? Register

We use cookies and comparable technologies to provide certain functions, to improve the user experience and to offer interest-oriented content. Depending on their intended use, analysis cookies and marketing cookies may be used in addition to technically required cookies. Here you can make detailed settings or revoke your consent (if necessary partially) with effect for the future. Further information can be found in our data protection declaration.