Ken Rogoff and the Curse of Cash

Munich lecture by Ken Rogoff

The Center for Economic Studies (CES), which is an independent institute within the Faculty of Economics of the University of Munich, invites visiting scholars to conduct their research in Munich, Germany, and to give a lecture series in return. In November 2014 their guest was Ken Rogoff, who received a prize and held a talk on a fairly controversial subject.

The prizegiving and the lecture were extremely well attended...

... and Ken Rogoff held a speech which surprised everybody.

Watch the video – you won't regret it!

Here is the full lecture that Ken held in Munich at the end of 2014 at the ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e.V. It is a fascinating 42-minute talk you should reserve time to watch. The lecture is an early version of what Rogoff has laid out in his new book: that paper money has brought on a great deal of problems for humanity, and that possibly the time come for governments to start phasing out paper currency (cash), except perhaps for small-denomination notes, coins, or both. Miss this lecture at your own peril – with the publication of Curse of Cash the subject is going to become mainstream in a short time.

Kenneth Saul Rogoff is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He has served as an economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and has also been an advisor on the team of a presidential candidate. As a former chess grandmaster, who at the height of this career was ranked number forty in the world, Ken has not been able to abandon his love of the game.

A conjunction of pure brain power: world class economist and chess grandmaster Ken Rogoff, GM and author John Nunn, computer and computer chess pioneer Ken Thompson at the London Chess Classic 2011

I (Frederic Friedel, above in the middle) was able to attend the lecture in Munich and reunite with two old and close friends. Ken has visited me in Hamburg, and I have seen him in London and California. Helmut Pfleger (right) was the first GM I met in my life. I used him in two science documentaries on how computers play chess, and we have been friends ever since.

On the day after the lecture I got Ken and Helmut to discuss a game they had played 44 years ago at the 17th World Student Team Chess Championship in Haifa. Helmut did not remember the moves, but Ken did. It was a Benko in which Helmut hung on to the pawn and crushed him. Here's that memorable game:

Ken wrote us today: "I am pretty sure my game with Helmut was my first and last attempt to play the Benko Gambit. Obviously, I had no feel for it, deserved to crushed, and Helmut executed with flair. Fortunately, our team captain had faith and let me continue to play on first board for the US after this defeat., I ultimately recovered, and the US team won the tournament on the back of a spectucular performance by my teammate Andrew Soltis."

Incidentally in 2012 Ken played chess moves for the first time in thirty years: a blitz game against a guy called Magnus Carlsen. He (Ken) was slightly better but drew.

The Curse of Cash by Kenneth S. Rogoff

From the New York Times bestselling author of This Time Is Different, “a fascinating and important book” (Ben Bernanke) about phasing out most paper money to fight crime and tax evasion—and to battle financial crises by tapping the power of negative interest rates. onglisted for the FT & McKinsey Business Book of the Year 2016 Hardcover | 2016 | $29.95 | £22.95 | ISBN: 9780691172132 296 pp. | 6 x 9 | 30 line illus. eBook | ISBN: 9781400883219 | Reviews Table of Contents Chapter 1 [PDF] A Q&A with the author Add to Shopping Cart Availble also on Amazon Read the first pages here

The world is drowning in cash—and it’s making us poorer and less safe. In The Curse of Cash, Kenneth Rogoff, one of the world’s leading economists, makes a persuasive and fascinating case for an idea that until recently would have seemed outlandish: getting rid of most paper money.

Even as people in advanced economies are using less paper money, there is more cash in circulation—a record $1.4 trillion in U.S. dollars alone, or $4,200 for every American, mostly in $100 bills. And the United States is hardly exceptional. So what is all that cash being used for? The answer is simple: a large part is feeding tax evasion, corruption, terrorism, the drug trade, human trafficking, and the rest of a massive global underground economy.

As Rogoff shows, paper money can also cripple monetary policy. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, central banks have been unable to stimulate growth and inflation by cutting interest rates significantly below zero for fear that it would drive investors to abandon treasury bills and stockpile cash. This constraint has paralyzed monetary policy in virtually every advanced economy, and is likely to be a recurring problem in the future.

The Curse of Cash offers a plan for phasing out most paper money—while leaving small-denomination bills and coins in circulation indefinitely—and addresses the issues the transition will pose, ranging from fears about privacy and price stability to the need to provide subsidized debit cards for the poor.

While phasing out the bulk of paper money will hardly solve the world’s problems, it would be a significant step toward addressing a surprising number of very big ones. Provocative, engaging, and backed by compelling original arguments and evidence, The Curse of Cash is certain to spark widespread debate.

Kenneth S. Rogoff, the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is the coauthor of the New York Times bestseller This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton). He appears frequently in the national media and writes a monthly newspaper column that is syndicated in more than fifty countries. He lives in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Don't miss the above article in the Wall Street Journal, August 27 7 2016: The Sinister Side of Cash, by Kenneth S. Rogoff. It is apparently free on the Internet and not hidden behind a paywall.

Currently there are close to 5000 articles on "Curse of Cash" in the international press. A few of them contain visceral criticism, as do some of the feedback items posted below. Ken Rogoff is posting a blog about once a week on the Princeton Univeristy Press Website addressing some of them. Here's the first.

Previous ChessBase articles with Ken Rogoff

Chess Grandmasters at the Davos conference 03.02.2009 – As the World Economic Forum held its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, two chess grandmasters weighed in on the crisis that has hit the economies of industrialised nations. One was Chess World Champion Vishy Anand, the other one of the leading economic thinkers in the world, Ken Rogoff – who in his day was listed in 40th place in the world chess rankings. Articles and videos.

Rogoff: Things are not going to get better soon 01.04.2009 – Are you baffled by the global financial crisis? Are the contradictory statements put out by various experts confusing you? Then listen to this interview with one of the world's leading economists, Kenneth S. Rogoff, who very lucidly explains the current situation, its causes and its possible remedies. Ken is also a chess grandmaster, and in 1972 he played the following jewel of a game.

Grandmasters and Global Growth 07.01.2010 – Professor Kenneth Rogoff is a strong chess grandmaster, who also happens to be one of the world's leading economists. In a Project Syndicate article that appeared this week Ken sees the new decade as one in which "artificial intelligence hits escape velocity," with an economic impact on par with the emergence of India and China. He uses computer chess to illustrated the point.

Rogoff: Technology and Inequality – parallels in chess 21.07.2011 – When a leading economic thinker happens to also be a strong chess grandmaster, his explanations of financial matters tend to draw allegories from the game he loves. Prof. Kenneth Rogoff periodically sets out his views in TV interviews and newspaper columns. Here is one from Project Syndicate that has appeared in many news sites. A while ago Ken sent warm birthday greetings to ChessBase.

Rogoff on chess addiction and why he had to give up the game 16.12.2011 – One of the highlights of the London Chess Classic has been the visits of a large number of important and interesting people. One of them, the Professor and world-renowned economist Ken Rogoff, is also a chess grandmaster. He was whisked away from the VIP room at Olympia for an interview with the BBC, in which he very frankly discusses the dangerous side of his former chess career.

Rogoff on innovation, unemployment, inequality and dislocation 10/7/2012 – "Two hundred years of breathtaking innovation have produced rising living standards for ordinary people," says a renowned economist (and chess grandmaster), "with no sharply rising trend for unemployment." As an example, Ken Rogoff looks at the world of professional chess, where technology has actually contributed to equalizing incomes of player and trainers. Must-read article.

Magnus Carlsen Storms New York's Chess Scene 06.09.2012 – They could barely reach the other side of the chessboard, but playing against the world's top-rated grandmaster Magnus Carlsen was a thrilling experience for many New York kids. Carlsen also played with billionaire investor and philanthropist George Soros, and a blitz game against one of the world's leading economists, Kenneth Rogoff. Lubomir Kavalek reports in The Huffington Post.

Ken Rogoff: economist and chess player 9/30/2015 – If you own a television set and watch news you will know him: Prof Kenneth Rogoff, who is interviewed on a weekly basis by the biggest news outlets in the world – CNN, CNBC, New York Times, Bloomberg – regarding world economics. But did you know that this famous economist started off as a chess player – and a highly successful one at that? Mini-series on Rogoff and chess.

Rogoff on the Fischer movie "Pawn Sacrifice" 9/18/2015 – Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff is a world famous economist – and a chess grandmaster. He thinks that in the Hollywood movie actor Toby Maguire portrays Fischer with remarkable authenticity "indeed, pitch-perfect for those of us who met Bobby in his prime" (as Rogoff did). In his review Ken speculates how Fischer would not be Fischer in today's world.

Did you guess who annotated Rogoff-Spencer 1969? 10/2/2015 – In a previous article we reproduced a report on the 1969 US Junior Championship in which Ken Rogoff, today a world famous economist, won the title with a two-point lead over the field. The key game in the final round was witnessed by a kibitzing chess columnist, who expressed his admiration for the sixteen-year-old and annotated his game – with advice for budding chess players.