Berlin GP: Aronian and Dominguez score crucial wins

by Carlos Alberto Colodro
3/23/2022 – In an exciting first round, the third leg of the Grand Prix series saw four players getting off to winning starts at Berlin’s Unter den Linden. Levon Aronian and Leinier Dominguez got crucial wins against direct contenders Hikaru Nakamura and Daniil Dubov, while Nikita Vitiugov got the better of Amin Tabatabaei, the lowest-rated player in pool D. The most surprising result of the day was Alexandr Predke’s win over Maxime Vachier-Lagrave. | Photos: World Chess

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A winner per pool

FIDE Grand Prix 2022Four players, one in each pool, kicked off the third stage of the Grand Prix series with victories. After the first day’s action, Levon Aronian, Leinier Dominguez, Alexandr Predke and Nikita Vitiugov are the early leaders of pools A to D respectively. Given how exciting the first two stages have been and the fact that two spots in the upcoming Candidates are up for grabs, these results bode well for the tournament’s potential entertainment value.

Aronian and Dominguez’s victories are particularly relevant in the fight to reach the knockout, as they beat dangerous, often-streaky opponents who have proven their mettle in elite competitions before. While Dominguez defeated the ever-creative Daniil Dubov, Aronian got the better of the first leg’s winner Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura had defeated Aronian in the final of the series’ inaugural tournament, which also took place in Berlin.

Meanwhile, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave suffered a big blow in pool C, as he was defeated by rating underdog Alexandr Predke. This loss not only hurts the Frenchman’s chances to win his pool, but also any outside chance he had to rapidly gain rating in order to claim the spot taken away from Sergey Karjakin by FIDE’s six-month ban (pending a potential appeal).

In pool D, Nikita Vitiugov beat Amin Tabatabaei, while Yu Yangyi held Anish Giri to a draw in a double-edged game.

Pool A: Aronian breaks Nakamura’s defences

Out of a Queen’s Gambit Accepted, a favourite of Nakamura’s, Black decided to leave his king in the centre and expand on both flanks. As usually happens in such sharp positions, a single mistake turned out to be decisive — in this case, it was Naka who faltered amid the complications.

 

23...Ndxc3, grabbing yet another pawn to get three connected passers on the queenside, is Black’s best alternative here. Of course, it is never easy to make such a cold-blooded move, potentially opening up the position, with a vulnerable king on a board full of pieces.

Nakamura instead opted for the safer-looking 23...Nf4. The problem with the chosen knight jump, however, is that White can respond energetically by 24.Qa2 (24.Ra6 or 24.Bg3 are also strong), as Aronian did not shy away from entering an imbalanced struggle.

Apparently Naka realized he was already in trouble once his opponent transferred his queen to the a-file, as he spent over half an hour on 24...Qb7. The 5-time US champion is known for his tenacity in defence, though, and pushed his opponent to work extra hard in the ensuing technical battle. 

After simplifications, Aronian had a rook and two pawns against Black’s two minor pieces.

 

The man from Yerevan, now representing the United States, needed more than 30 moves to convert this position into a win.

 
 

Andrey Esipenko

Andrey Esipenko played the Catalan and drew Grigoriy Oparin

Pool B: Time trouble

Two incorrigible chess fighters, Dubov and Dominguez created an imbalanced position in their direct encounter.

 

Dominguez had already spent around 15 minutes on three different occasions before reaching this position, and here needed a bit over 13 minutes to decide on 17...Bxf3, generating a long-lasting asymmetry both in terms of structure and material balance.

The Cuban-born grandmaster emerged with a superior position out of the ensuing complications, but he was over an hour behind on the clock. In the run-up to the time control, Dominguez missed some chances, but he also managed to avoid making any kind of irreversible blunder. 

It was only after move 40 that Dubov made the game’s decisive mistake.

 

The e3-rook is under attack, but it is definitely not easy to decide where to place it as the knight is well-positioned and ready to fork White’s pieces. Dubov erred with 43.Rf3, which should not be responded by the direct 43...Nf4 but by the strong zwischenzug 43...Rc2.

Dominguez’s rook move threatens to create mating nets with the help of the knight (from f4) and the pawn on g5. Thus, after 44.Kg3 Nf4, Dubov decided to immediately give up an exchange with 45.Rxf4, leaving Black a pawn up in a pure rook endgame. 

The ending was winning for Dominguez, and the US grandmaster did not falter in conversion.

 
 

Pool C: Predke pushes his g-pawn

Much like in the second leg, Predke and Vachier-Lagrave were seeded in the same pool and paired up against each other in the first round. While MVL survived from an inferior position in Belgrade, he was unable to avoid a loss this time around.

 

Out of a Symmetrical English turned sharp, Predke found the most trying continuation in the diagrammed position: 15.g4. As Srinath Narayanan pointed out on Twitter, this manoeuvre had echoes of Judit Polgar’s victory over Ferenc Berkes from 2003.

While Polgar won that game in 24 moves, Predke needed 23 to take down his famed opponent.

 

Black is lost on all fronts. MVL resigned.

 
 

Alexandr Predke

Alexandr Predke

Pool D: Vitiugov beats Tabatabaei

In a pool that includes Giri, Yu and Vitiugov, Iranian GM Amin Tabatabaei is likely to become the target of his 2700+ rated opponents, especially when he plays with the black pieces.

Out of the gate, Vitiugov defeated the rating underdog with the white pieces after a long fight which started as an Open Ruy Lopez.

 

The man from Saint Petersburg (when he was born, the city was still called Leningrad) gained a pawn in the early middlegame. The queens left the board on move 22, and with 23...d3 Tabatabaei put all his hopes in the d-file passer as compensation for the missing material.

It was a 64-move struggle, but Vitiugov prevailed in the end, thus putting pressure on Giri and Yu — who drew their direct encounter — right from the get go.

 
 

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Carlos Colodro is a Hispanic Philologist from Bolivia. He works as a freelance translator and writer since 2012. A lot of his work is done in chess-related texts, as the game is one of his biggest interests, along with literature and music.

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arzi arzi 3/28/2022 06:33
To Lajosarpad and Jagob woge, on Friday after work, I read a newest New In Chess magazine related to GP and noticed an information which was missing from me our discussion. There are two qualification spots, not one! My mistake. Of course, now it is totally different situation. There is only one situation when Rapport is NOT qualifying. That is Nakamura goes to semifinal and Dominguez wins the final 2-0.
The second and the last GP should have been organized according to the previous results of the first round and not according to the Elo numbers. Now it happens that one of the possible finalists falls, namely Nakamura or Aronian. They should have been put in a different starting group because several players have no chance of getting into the top two.
arzi arzi 3/25/2022 02:32
You guys are adding the rounds together but you seem to forget that every single round is independent of others, except for the players - who is in and who is out. Every new round you have, a new chance will start again. Nakamura can win this first round. It just need one win against Aronian and other players draws their games. It is quite possible and not even too difficult to achieve. One win to get mini match against Aronian. Draws are the most common results. Next round Nakamura or Aronian or Dominguez have a new chance. Nakamura needs only to get in semifinal. He has better score against Rapport. He won him in the first GP. Nakamura does not have to play final to beat the Rapport but then Dominguez may have the same result as them. Then they have to calculate the scores between Nakamura and Dominguez.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/25/2022 01:34
@Jacob Woge as a result, Nakamura's chance must be smaller than 50%, because, if Nakamura had more than 50% chance, while Aronian had more than 50% chance (because Nakamura has 50% chance in this scenario), that would mean that their sum is higher than 100%, which proves that Nakamura's chance cannot reach 50%. p(Nakamura) < 50% < 96.7%, so, it is evidently provable that Nakamura had less than 50% to perform at least as well as Rapport, while we know Rapport's performance with 100% certainty, since it already happened. And then, Andreikin and Oparin also had their chances, not to mention that 3 of Rapport's main rivals were seeded into the same pool, maximum one could qualify from there. Andreikin has an Élő of 2724, which is lower than Nakamura's, but not significantly lower, while their lifetime score is 1 win for Andreikin, 1 win for Nakamura and 2 draws. So, Andreikin had almost the same probability for qualifying as Nakamura, while Esipenko was also a possible winner. Events since then have changed the chances, as Nakamura has lost a game and Andreikin has widthrawn, that further increased Rapport's chance of qualifying and decreased Nakamura's chance to do so.

So, Nakamura had the opportunity to achieve a greater result than Rapport, he was very unlikely to achieve that and even if Nakamura would have surpassed Rapport, it would have been unlikely that another person would also have surpassed him.

So, prior to the tournament, Rapport's chance was 96.7%, while Nakamura's chance for qualifying was less than 50%. So, Nakamura had a much lower chance for qualifying than Rapport.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/25/2022 01:27
@Jacob Woge

while your points are mostly correct, this is not as complicated as it may seem. We are already past 3 rounds and now Nakamura's chances have been lowered by effects that happened since the start of the tournament, my main point was that even before the tournament, we knew that Nakamura had lower chances of qualifying than Rapport. According to some calculations, Rapport had a 96.7% chance of qualifying before the tournament in Berlin based on his decent result in the first tournament and excellent result in the second.

So, if Nakamura had at least similar chances as Rapport at the start of the Berlin tournament, then Nakamura's chance of qualifying into the semifinals should have been at least 96.7%. So, if arzi was right, then Nakamura's chance cannot be lower than 96.7% in terms of qualifying in the preliminaries, since, if he does not qualify to the semifinals, then, if somebody surpasses his result, besides Rapport, then Nakamura is eliminated, while Rapport will only be eliminated if two people would surpass him and that automatically means that Nakamura's result is also surpassed, if he does not qualify into the semifinals.

So, is Nakamura's chance prior to the Berlin tournament reaching 96.7%? Not by far.

Proof: In order for Nakamura to qualifying, Aronian, Oparin and Andreikin (yes, Andreikin withdrawn, but at prior calculations we could not foresee that) cannot qualify. However, Aronian's Élő points are 2772, while Nakamura's Élő points are 2736, while their lifetime score was 14 wins for Aronian, 8 wins for Nakamura and 27 draws, so, Aronian was both the favorite to win the preliminaries and he is also a difficult opponent for Nakamura. So, we know that

p(Aronian) > p(Nakamura)
arzi arzi 3/25/2022 07:12
Jagob woge:"Nakamura can, as the only player, decide his own fate."

Yes.
For the last time: 3 GP:s and players can play only two of them.
1.Rapport 20 points, no more coming.
2.Nakamura has 13 p and he might get from 0 p to 13 p. 7 points may be enough? For sure to qualify he must enter on final, lose or win does not matter. Best chance. It is totally up to Nakamura himself.
3.Aronian 10 p, has to win a final and get 23 p to qualify. Losing the final is not enough, same points as Rapport, 20 p but no wins in final. Second best chance. It is totally up to Aronian himself.
4.Dominguez has 7 p and winning the final, same score as Rapport, 20p. If he wins the last final 2-0, I guess he will qualify? Dominguez has the third best chance. It is up to Dominguez.
If Nakamura wins the first round in GP3, Aronian out. Aronian wins Nakamura is out. Domingues wins final Nakamura and Aronian are out.
This is just, what might happen. Everything is open, every round starts the new chance for those 4 players who fight for the place of qualification. Like tossing coin many time in a row, each new toss starts the new chance. Previous toss does not affect the next toss.
Jacob woge Jacob woge 3/24/2022 06:20
This is a complicated system. Let me see if I get this right ...

Nakamura can, as the only player, decide his own fate. Any other player in this leg is either out of contention, or dependent on other results, including in most scenarios, a mediocre performance from Nakamura himself.

Rapport obviously can not decide his own fate. But, him having put in a great performance, the chance of not one, but two players slipping past him is very slim.

If I wanted to qualify and had the choice of whose boots to be in, I would pick Rapport’s, anytime.

A good performance already achieved is worth more than a good performance on the horizon.
arzi arzi 3/24/2022 02:55
Lajosarpad:"@arzi At this point Nakamura has worse chances than Rapport, he is likely to fall out from the preliminaries."

One win is enough for renewal against Aronian if other games are draws. Like Rapport in his first round in GP1? He also lost a game. Later Rapport lost a semi-final to Nakamura. If Nakamura lose this first round then Rapport has much better chance qualifying. If Nakamura gets in semi-final but stays only there does he have a better chance qualifying than Rapport? Last time they were playing in the same GP Nakamura did win the semi-final against Rapport. If that is the case then Nakamura needs only get in semi-final, right?
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/24/2022 02:35
@arzi At this point Nakamura has worse chances than Rapport, he is likely to fall out from the preliminaries.

Nobody said that Nakamura does not have a chance. You seem to move some goalposts and betray total confusion about the concept of chance. I started to read your comment, but seeing that you have fallen into a fallacy, misrepresenting my position as if I was ever suggesting that Nakamura has no chance, I decided to optimize my time and do something better than reading your comment further, since I know that I have never written Nakamura off. Everyone reading my earlier comments here also knows that, including you. Happy writing
arzi arzi 3/24/2022 01:07
To nirvana1963, in first GP, round 1, Rapport(3.5p) lost one game and win 2 games, same points as Wojtaszek (3,5p). Rapport went on all the way to the semifinals. Did he lose his first game in round 1? Now Nakamura has lost the first game. If he wins only one game from his remaining games, against Aronian, and other games are draws for all players then Nakamura needs to win only one more game, against Aronian, I guess. Is it impossible task? Does Nakamura have a fair chance to get through? Is it possible to win two games, one of them against Aronian? What are the chances to win? Does the chance depend on the opponent or is it always the same with all the players? Does the win depends on a day the game is played or for food you have just eaten or perhaps from the news in Ukraine read about just before the game?
arzi arzi 3/24/2022 12:29
to nirvana1963: It does not matter how small is the chance, it is still a chance. Zero chance means impossible task.

If you have a coin you have 50/50 chance to get either clava or crown in a perfect system. If you manipulate the coin, clava and clava, then you have no chance to get a crown. If coin tosser flips the coin randomly he gets either clava or crown with 50% chance, in theory, but if a tosser manipulate the coin toss so that it always gives us clava, then it is also impossible to get a crown. Chess is not a game of chance as flipping the coin. Of course we can bet on chess, giving the appropriate probability values ​​for each game and each round but we can´t control the manipulation of the game. We can´t control the players wish to lose on purpose, manipulating the chance in their own benefit. You can manipulate a loss but it is much harder to manipulate the win for your benefit. The chess game should end to draw if played perfectly by both side.
nirvana1963 nirvana1963 3/24/2022 11:55
@arzi With all respect but I think you don't understand the concept of chance. If I or you were participating in this GP we could win. It would be very, very difficult but not impossible. But I think you understand our chances would be close to zero right? So it would minimise our chances...
arzi arzi 3/24/2022 10:44
If all remaining games end as draws except Nakamura-Aronian 1-0 then all players have 3 points. Are they all playing against each other again or just Nakamura and Aronian?
arzi arzi 3/24/2022 09:49
To lajosarpad, by the way, did Rapport play in both finals? If not and Nakamura plays on both final but loses the second one (this one), does Nakamura have a better chance qualifying than Rapport? Has Rapport then any chance qualifying?
arzi arzi 3/24/2022 09:17
Lajosarpad:"I think everybody knows that you were wrong when you assumed before the tournament that Nakamura had the same chance not to qualify to the candidates tournament as Rapport, including yourself. It is one thing to be wrong about something. It happens to everyone. And it is quite another thing not to admit it."

You really do not get it?

Nakamura CAN WIN this GP. It is difficult but not IMPOSSIBLE. So he has BETTER CHANCE qualifying than Rapport who cannot better his results anymore because he has already played his GP:s, right? Two wins outplays one win plus one semifinal, right?
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/24/2022 08:38
@arzi Making a move is always an answer to the question "how should I move?". So, this is very much in line with difficulty index calculation. See https://trainingindustry.com/glossary/difficulty-index/
and https://assessment.aa.ufl.edu/media/assessmentaaufledu/practical-guide-materials/Module-4c---Difficulty-and-Discrimination.pdf

I think everybody knows that you were wrong when you assumed before the tournament that Nakamura had the same chance not to qualify to the candidates tournament as Rapport, including yourself. It is one thing to be wrong about something. It happens to everyone. And it is quite another thing not to admit it.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/24/2022 08:38
@arzi looks like you are very confused about probability calculation. We can safely assume that all participants want to win the tournament. We could speculate about corruption and bought players, but I see no reason to do so. So, if Nakamura tries his best to win the tournament and others also try their best, then there IS a calculable probability of who wins the tournament. If there is a higher chance of winning a tournament, then the difficulty is lower than in the scenario where winning it is less likely.

When we work out formulas, including, but not limited to probability, we aim to represent reality as accurately as possible. In our case, while calculating the likelihood of Nakamura qualifying should take into account his Élő rating, his lifetime score against other players as well as the Élő rating of his rivals and their lifetime scores against each-other. Beating a stronger player requires more effort than beating a weaker player. Beating a player one is uncomfortable against is more difficult than beating a player one is usually scoring better against.

These should be very simple. Since I work with mathematical formulas as a profession and I know for a fact that difficulty can be included into formulas, I factually know that you are wrong when you state that difficulty cannot be included into chance calculation. An example for this is the difficulty index, which is based on the proportion or probability that individuals will take a test correctly. If we view the test as "making a series of moves that will not lead into trouble against Aronian", that represents the difficulty of not losing against him. We see how people of Nakamura's calibre could cope with this challenge in the past and make some statistics. Or, we could think about the difficulty of winning as "making a series of moves that will lead into a winning position against Aronian".
arzi arzi 3/24/2022 06:35
Lajosarpad:"That's not quite accurate. It can be included into the formula, or excluded from it. So, it quite depends on the way one is calculating chance."

No, it is not. You have to toss the coin the same way, either it is difficult way or easy way. If the difficult way affects the coin landing more in clava, then it is not a chance but manipulated toss.

Lajosarpad:"arzi:Like tossing the coin, the difficulty to flip the coin does not belong to the equation of chance or probability. "

This is a misunderstanding of the relation between "difficulty" and "chance".

No it is not. You have misunderstood the chance. If you affect the result with the way of your play, then it is not a chance, but the manipulation of the result. You can play well, average level, or badly. In chance there are no such a ways. You can lose on purpose a game, to get some money in betting. Can you win on purpose? You may if all your prepares are working, but it is not up to you only. Your opponent will also have something to say. If I have a broken hand when tossing a coin, it might be a "difficult" way of tossing, but if that difficult way of tossing does not affect on result in any way, then it is question of chance, no manipulation by the player or coin tosser, like the particles in chaos or when we talk about entropy of system.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/23/2022 08:15
@arzi

"The degree of difficulty does not include in chance."

That's not quite accurate. It can be included into the formula, or excluded from it. So, it quite depends on the way one is calculating chance.

"Like tossing the coin, the difficulty to flip the coin does not belong to the equation of chance or probability. "

This is a misunderstanding of the relation between "difficulty" and "chance". If you toss a coin, then it is beyond reasonable doubt that you will succeed in tossing your coin and a head or tail will result of this operation. Yet, in the case of a chess preliminary tournament where Nakamura is playing, the result depends on the difficulty Nakamura has to face. Should he play a group of kindergarten children, he would likely have a 100% score, yet, against super GM opposition he is unlikely to win the tournament, especially if Aronian is playing, who has a positive score against Nakamura and has a higher ELO as well.

Probability calculations can include difficulty into the formula when calculating the chances. All it takes to do so is to accurately approximate the effect of difficulty on the chances. If we do not have such an understanding, then we can use ELO and lifetime score as a basis for "difficulty" and see how players coped with a similar difficulty in comparison to their abilities on average to find a pattern that we could use for our calculations.
Leavenfish Leavenfish 3/23/2022 05:56
Which would only bring him back to 'even' you might say. Anyone in contention will need a nice plus score to qualify. Naka a little less than others probably because he won the other leg but this leaves him even less room to err. The final script to this play is yet to be written.
arzi arzi 3/23/2022 02:11
Yes, but he also can win the second game against Aronian, right?
Leavenfish Leavenfish 3/23/2022 01:46
It's a LOT more difficult after losing the first game! His odds went down considerably after that - these matches are just too short and one decisive result changes the probabilities considerably. But then...that wasn't the final game.
arzi arzi 3/23/2022 11:58
So? What we were talking about, at least myself, was about chance / probability, in percentage. The degree of difficulty does not include in chance. Like tossing the coin, the difficulty to flip the coin does not belong to the equation of chance or probability. Nakamura has every chance to win also this GP, it is just more difficult after losing the first game.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/23/2022 11:23
Just after Rapport won the Belgrade leg, arzi said:

"Nakamura has the same 3.3% chance not qualifying to the Candidates Tournament, I guess. "

I disagreed with the statement above and pointed out that while Rapport has already played his tournaments and he has a very good chance for achieving one of the top two places that would qualify him to the candidates tournament based on facts already known, yet, Nakamura has to be successful in the Berlin leg in order to qualify and, if Nakamura would not reach the semifinals in Berlin, then he will have much worse chances than Rapport, while Rapport almost certainly qualifies even if Nakamura wins in Berlin. I further argued that we should not write off other players, like Aronian, Andreikin and Oparin, who all have non-zero chances and actually Aronian is the favorite to win the preliminaries.

Finally, I have pointed out that the chances that we can calculate are always changing when the facts change. Nakamura had a much less than 50% chance for qualifying, because 1. Aronian is the favorite, 2. Aronian has a positive score against Nakamura, 3. The other players might also win

Yet, Nakamura's chances dramatically decreased now that he has lost his first game against his main rival. I would not write Nakamura off just yet, since he will play another game against Aronian, where he might beat him and there are other, lower-rated players as well, against whom Nakamura might be more successful than Aronian, but, if I had to bet now on one person who is the most likely to qualify, then it would be Aronian.
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