Rapport tempts fortune, wins Belgrade Grand Prix

by Carlos Alberto Colodro
3/14/2022 – A win with white in Sunday’s second game of the final gave Richard Rapport tournament victory at the second leg of the FIDE Grand Prix in Belgrade. Rapport beat Dmitry Andreikin after rejecting a draw by triple repetition in a double-edged position. This victory, combined with his reaching the semifinals in the first leg of the series, places him as a clear favourite to get a spot in the Candidates Tournament. | Photos: Mark Livshitz

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With a foot in the door

FIDE Grand Prix Belgrade 2022There is only a 3.3% chance of Richard Rapport not qualifying to the Candidates Tournament after having won the second leg of the FIDE Grand Prix in Belgrade, as Chess by the Numbers has shared on Twitter. The Hungarian grandmaster is up to number 7 in the live ratings list and can almost be counted as the seventh player to get a spot in the Candidates.

As we noted in a previous report, by Rapport’s own admission, luck has played a role in his getting the best result so far in the series. Besides getting victories in close matchups both in Berlin and Belgrade after taking considerable risks, Rapport has now been favoured by the drawing of lots for the third leg that kicks off next week. The three players, other than him, to have reached the final either in Berlin or Belgrade have all been seeded in the same pool, which means (in the worst-case scenario for him) only one among his three closest pursuers could reach the semifinals in that event — i.e. Hikaru Nakamura, Levon Aronian or Dmitry Andreikin.

Moreover, even if one of these three players reaches the final, it would be necessary for either Anish Giri, Leinier Dominguez or Maxime Vachier-Lagrave to win the tournament for Rapport to be disqualified — and only if one of these players outscores him on tiebreak criteria.

Rapport’s almost-certain qualification to the Candidates cannot be fully ascribed to luck by any stretch of the imagination, though. The Hungarian star did not shy away from employing his usual creative playing style in the first two legs of the series, and has demonstrated that he is particularly well-versed in dealing with imbalanced, sharp positions.

Richard Rapport

Richard Rapport

In the second game of the final match in Belgrade, Rapport had the white pieces and managed to get his opponent spending considerable amounts of time from as early as move 5. A tense struggle in the opening and early middlegame gave fighting chances to both players as the time control was approaching. On move 26, the contenders began to repeat moves, signalling an implicit draw offer. After the same position appeared twice on the board, though, Rapport decided to take his chances by deviating into a double-edged struggle — despite only having two minutes on the clock with over 10 moves to go to reach the time control.

The brave decision paid off. Andreikin soon faltered, and Rapport made the most of his chances in an excellent display of calculation and technical abilities to take home tournament victory, €24,000 in prize money and a near-certain qualification to the Candidates.

Richard Rapport, Dmitry Andreikin

The final game of yet another remarkable tournament

Rapport’s 5.a3 out of a Queen’s Gambit Declined — with an exchange on d5 — was a tricky way to avoid long theoretical lines. Andreikin’s principled 7...c5 had the Hungarian thinking long and hard, though, as he spent over 15 minutes before deciding on 8.Be5.

 

It was clear that we were in for an entertaining struggle between two in-form players. The tense strategic battle that followed left both players with chances to fight for more if they so decided. By move 25, White was targeting a weakness on e6, while Black had strong central pawns and a chance to infiltrate along the c-file.

 

Black can place either the rook or the knight on e4. Andreikin opted for 25...Ne4, and saw his opponent immediately challenging the centralized piece with 26.f3.

There followed 26...Rc3 27.Qd4 Rc4 28.Qe3 Rc3 29.Qd4 Rc4, with Andreikin offering Rapport to draw the game by a threefold repetition.

 

But Rapport did not want to take the match to rapid tiebreakers just yet. With two minutes on the clock, the Hungarian played 30.Qe5, not fearing to enter a position with both kings vulnerable to attacks.

Andreikin, not one to shy away from tactical complications, continued with 30...Nd2, allowing Rapport to break things open via 31.f5

 

White at the very least is giving up an exchange — 31...Nxf1 32.fxe6 followed. As so often happens in double-edged positions, an innocuous-looking imprecision turned out to be the decisive mistake, as Andreikin’s 32...Ke8 gave White the edge going forward, when 32...Ke7 would have kept the balance.

Had Black placed his king on e7, 33.Qxg7 would have been a check, but the black monarch would have found shelter on the queenside, escaping via d6 and c7. In the game, on the other hand, there followed 33...Qb6+ 34.Kxf1 Rc1+ 35.Ke2, and Andreikin saw it necessary to give up his rook to try to save the game with a perpetual check.

 

After 35...Re1+ 36.Kxe1 Qe3+, it turns out that White can escape the checks by transferring his king to the queenside and eventually blocking a check with his queen on b2. 

Andreikin probably knew that he was lost once the time control was reached, but he continued playing until move 45, when he ‘resigned the game’ in a friendly, joking manner.

 

45...Qf1+ allowed 46.Bxf1, and Andreikin hurried to congratulate his opponent for the fine victory. A great way to finish a remarkable game, and a remarkable tournament.

 

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Carlos Colodro is a Hispanic Philologist from Bolivia. He works as a freelance translator and writer since 2012. A lot of his work is done in chess-related texts, as the game is one of his biggest interests, along with literature and music.

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arzi arzi 3/17/2022 01:18
Lajosarpad:"@arzi I did not say it's like the tossing of coins. If you read my earlier comments, I have said that ELO points and other aspects are probably not reflected in the calculation whose results we see here. Which implies that I very much support the inclusion of other factors into the formula, if that was not clear already."

I talked about chances, described as a percentage. A difficult or easy opponent is not related to chance, but to the degree of difficulty. I agree that Nakamura has a difficult task humanly.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/17/2022 12:09
@arzi I did not say it's like the tossing of coins. If you read my earlier comments, I have said that ELO points and other aspects are probably not reflected in the calculation whose results we see here. Which implies that I very much support the inclusion of other factors into the formula, if that was not clear already.

However, Rapport has MUCH better chances now than Nakamura for qualifying, because Rapport has already won a tournament and reached the semifinal of the other. Is it more probable that "Nakamura will qualify" than "Aronian OR Andreikin OR Oparin will qualify"? I consider that one of the other three winning the tournament has a higher chance than Nakamura winning. For instance, Aronian has an ELO rating of 2785 and leads against Nakamura in their lifelong score 14-8, while they had played 27 draws https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chess.pl?yearcomp=exactly&year=&playercomp=either&pid=17316&player=&pid2=10084&player2=&movescomp=exactly&moves=&opening=&eco=&result=

So, it seems that Aronian has a better chance for qualifying than Nakamura. This means that if we consider Aronian's chances only, then it is necessarily true that Nakamura has a less than 50% chance for qualifying. And I would not write off Andreikin, a former World Cup finalist, nor Oparin. Their nonzero chances further decrease Nakamura's chances.

It is almost certain that Rapport will qualify, while, if Nakamura does not reach the semifinal now, then his chances will significantly decrease. For instance, if Andreikin wins the tournament, then Rapport and Andreiking will qualify. So, Nakamura has less than 50% chance to get through the first stage. He has his chances, but he has yet to play his second tournament. While Rapport almost certainly qualified, even if Nakamura also qualifies.
arzi arzi 3/16/2022 01:03
To Lajosarpad, This is not a case of tossing coins. The difficult opponents does not mean the same as throwing consecutive coins, with random luck. Before even playing the second tournament Nakamura has a better "chance" of qualification than Rapport, because Nakamura may also win his second tournament. Rapport has already played two rounds and cannot improve himself.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/16/2022 11:30
@arzi in the first phase only one person qualifies to the semifinals. Nakamura will have 3 super GMs trying to beat him to it, which is never an easy task and at least two of the main rivals of Rapport will be eliminated at that point from the tournament. If he does not qualify for the semifinals, then he has much worse chances than Rapport. And, if Nakamura wins the tournament, then he will surely qualify. But winning it is very hard.
Hurin Hurin 3/15/2022 04:47
@arzi, when Nakamura wins the last GrandPrix, then he has two tournament wins. So he'll qualify for sure
The next qualification spot will be for Rapport, because no one can better perform with a win in a GrandPrix and a semifinal spot then Rapport did.. Not even Aronian because he is eliminated by Nakamura in the group fase in this case.
arzi arzi 3/15/2022 01:14
To, lajosarpad: Well, actually Nakamura has played only one tournament, so he has better chance of qualification than Rapport. He just need to win. After two wins Nakamura has better chance of qualifying than Rapport. To say Nakamura has worse chances now because it is so difficult to win is not true, in this particular situation. This is not a case of tossing coins.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/15/2022 12:36
@arzi as pointed out in earlier comments, Nakamura would need to be pretty successful in the next tournament to achieve a very high chance of qualifying. If he is out in the tournament phase, then his chances are worse than in the case when he qualifies to the semifinals, or even the finals or even win. Yet, we can only calculate now with the current information. If the next tournament starts and Nakamura performs well, then all chances will be modified in light of the information that is not available now and will be available then. It is likely that at that point, Rapport's 3.3% chance would be modified into some direction as well. Also, let me point out that the chances are calculated by the numbers of eventualities, probably ratings or other factors were not taken into account. I did not calculate the chances at this point, so I could be wrong.
arzi arzi 3/15/2022 09:11
It could be useful to show us the remaining chance of qualification for the all players to Candidates. As a percentage.
MauvaisFou MauvaisFou 3/15/2022 08:46
could someone give us the actual rankings (with number of tournaments already played, or still to be played, for each player) and remind us the number of points given in one tournament ? Thank you in advance, and thank you to Fixpont, who gave valuable information about tiebreaks.
Frits Fritschy Frits Fritschy 3/15/2022 12:41
Couldn't Andreikin have drawn with 33... Qc7? The engine gives white a clear advantage with 34 Qg6+ Ke7 35 Bxf1 Qb6+ 36 Kg2 Qxe6 37 Qxe6+ Kxe6 38 Bxc4 dxc4, but that is not quite clear to me: after b5 black has a defended free pawn on c4. White's connected pawns can't win on their own, so they should be supported by the king, but then he will have to let the c-pawn go for promotion. Sometimes king and connected pawns can be fast enough to deliver mate, but a quick look didn't convince me that is possible. Something for Karsten Müller?
Raymond Labelle Raymond Labelle 3/14/2022 11:05
My interpretaton of Dimitri's last move: it was to show the brilliancy of the calculation that it was because of that white B. that he could not succeed in making a perpetual. Very gentlemanly from Dimitri's part.
Mamack1 Mamack1 3/14/2022 08:16
In actual fact, he only ever played 1....a6 in a single game.

But what a game.
Vidmar Vidmar 3/14/2022 08:11
Tony Miles was "prone to win", with 1...a6
fixpont fixpont 3/14/2022 04:22
"If players finish tied on Grand Prix points, then the following tie-breaks are applied, in order:

- number of tournament first-place finishes;
- number of tournament second-place finishes;
- number of points scored in regular time limit games;
- number of wins in regular time limit games;
drawing of lots."

"- number of points scored in regular time limit games;"
"- number of wins in regular time limit games;"

this is key, Rapport won the regular game in the final and in the semifinal too, while Hikaru only won in rapid in the first final and both had 2 points in their group stage, it is pretty hard for Rapport not to qualify, the only way him dropping out is like Naka reaches the final but loses to Leinier/Giri and Leinier/Giri wins every single game (or at least a lot in regular time control)... pretty unlikely
ulyssesganesh ulyssesganesh 3/14/2022 03:31
Rapport is playing like Tony Miles ....
Hurin Hurin 3/14/2022 03:06
If Nakamura gets in the semifinals only a win of the GrandPrix by Giri, Dominguez or Vachier-Lagrave will help the last three. But I am unaware of the tiebreak rules then. Might be that even then Nakamure reaches the candidates.

If I am right in poule A 3 playes have a chance to qualify ( Nakamura, Andraikin and Aronian) in the other poules only one player still has a chance to qualify. poule B- Dominguez, poule C -Vachhier-Lagrave and poule D - Giri.

So only 6 of the 16 players are playing to qualify at this stage and Rapport is keeping his fingers crossed that there will be no last minute surprise for him.
Wastrel Wastrel 3/14/2022 03:01
It seems to me that the "3.3%" remark in the article is for bookmakers and has no meaning for the practical chances of players competing for the Candidates. It depends on the pairings and a number of other things, such as whether a player feels comfortable at the venue. In Rapport's case, apparently his wife has been a great help and inspiration!
arzi arzi 3/14/2022 02:28
If Nakamura gets in semi-final on the next Fide GP he has the same 3.3% chance of not qualifying. Right?
calcomar calcomar 3/14/2022 02:00
@lajosarpad - Indeed, I meant that only one of the three *could* (in the worst-case scenario for Rapport) reach the semis. Thanks for pointing it out!
Crouchyboy Crouchyboy 3/14/2022 01:58
Nakamura has nowhere near a 96.7% chance of qualification to Candidates - unlike Rapport. Rapport has already played in two Grand Prix events, Nakamura only one. Nakamura shall need another strong performance in the next one (semi finals at least) to reach the Candidates.
arzi arzi 3/14/2022 01:36
"There is only a 3.3% chance of Richard Rapport not qualifying to the Candidates Tournament after having won the second leg of the FIDE Grand Prix in Belgrade."

Nakamura has the same 3.3% chance not qualifying to the Candidates Tournament, I guess.
lajosarpad lajosarpad 3/14/2022 11:36
"which means only one among his three closest pursuers will reach the semifinals in that event — i.e. Hikaru Nakamura, Levon Aronian or Dmitry Andreikin." not necessarily. There are four players in the pool and the fourth player could win it too, in which case none of the mentioned three players would reach the semifinal.
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