As the World Championship match in London approaches, Magnus Carlsen can feel Fabiano Caruana breathing down his neck. For six years Carlsen has been the number one on the rating list but had Fabiano Caruana won his direct encounter with Carlsen in round seven of the Sinquefield Cup 2018 in Saint Louis he would have been the new number one on the live rating list, and presumably also the September FIDE list.
No wonder the last game between C&C before their match in London was a nervy affair. "There was a lot at stake today. I was a bit nervous," admitted Carlsen after the game; a game that showed that the World Champion is able to play his best when under pressure — at least for 26 moves.
Now he has to work on keeping the tension high before the opponent admits defeat. In Saint Louis, he failed to do so — and in spectacular fashion. When he was close to winning against Caruana, Carlsen decided to enter the "Confessional" to go live on air to send a message to his critics to shut up. He did so with a gesture that is quite common in professional sport but has never been seen before in the history of chess.
Right: Carlsen as seen by Willum Morsch (@WillumTM on Twitter)
Carlsen endeavouring to silence his critics?
However, when returning from the "Confessional" things no longer went smoothly. Carlsen lost his way, missed the almost winning move 27.f5-f6, and allowed Caruana to save his neck.
The position was ripe for 27.f6 Nd5 28.Ng4 g6 29.c4 with a solid white edge
The game between Carlsen and Caruana attracted ESPN, HBO, Sports Illustrated and the legendary Harry Benson. In fact, there was so much media at the @STLChessClub that for the first 15 minutes of the game only media was allowed in the playing hall while the fans waited in line pic.twitter.com/RrMdqf3wKl
— Grand Chess Tour (@GrandChessTour) August 26, 2018
To bring a confident and optimistic mood to the board in London, Caruana and Carlsen will both try to focus on what was good for them in their recent encounters. Both will find a lot. Carlsen will be optimistic because he was on top of Caruana in their most recent games, Caruana will like that he managed to draw two of the three games he might have lost and that, all in all, he has played at least on the same level as Carlsen — if not better.
After winning two World Championship matches against Viswanathan Anand, Carlsen enjoyed the reputation of being a patient and ruthless finisher who will bring the game home, and who basically forces his opponents to collapse if he manages to build up and to sustain just a little bit of pressure. Recently he seemed to have lost this ability but in Saint Louis, he might have found it again.
Though he lost his grip on the game against Caruana, two long wins against Nakamura and Karjakin helped Carlsen to win the tournament together with Caruana and Aronian.
But Carlsen was unhappy about his pragmatism which actually is a hallmark of his style. The position from the game against Caruana in which he could have cashed in with 27.f6! is, in a way, similar to a position from a game against Wojtaszek played in May 2018. In this game Carlsen played his own version of a Sicilian and saw the winning move 18.Nd5! but preferred a solid move which kept the pressure instead of spending a lot of time searching for a possible immediate win. Against Wojtaszek, this approach to shy away from concrete play worked, against Caruana it gave the game away.
Above: Caruana as seen by Willum Morsch
Or, as Grandmaster Jonathan Tisdall put it on his blog last week:
Magnus did what he used to do best, use absolutely every atom of possibility in every position, and just pose too many problems. While it was encouraging that this power has returned, he will almost certainly need to produce a little bit more in terms of problems vs. Caruana. One cannot count on trouble at the molecular level being enough to wear down the challenger.
Recently Caruana has had considerable difficulties against Carlsen but all in all, Caruana had a fantastic 2018. Even at the Altibox Norway tournament in Stavanger where Carlsen had homecourt advantage and Caruana lost in their direct encounter, he still managed to finish ahead of the World Champion.
GM Daniel King analysis Round 1 of Norway Chess
Will we see further Petroff debates in London? At any rate, it will be World Championship match in which the number one and the number two of the world battle it out — the first such match in decades. And before the Candidates Tournament in Berlin it was even an open question who is the world's number two and if there's a clear number two at all. But in the last six months, Caruana has answered this question convincingly. If Caruana now finds a way to avoid getting regularly into trouble against Carlsen and stops the tactical mistakes that sometimes plague him he may well be the new number one at the end of November.
Caruana and Carlsen will each have one more tournament before the November match. Caruana plays board one for the top-seeded USA team at the Batumi Olympiad starting September 23rd. There he will not only face strong opposition, providing a good warmup for the match, but the American team is also defending their 2016 Olympiad gold in Baku, this time as the Elo favourites.
Carlsen decided to give the Olympiad a pass but he will compete in the European Club Cup, beginning October 12th, in Halkidiki, Greece, for the Norwegian team Valerenga, ranked sixth.
So, what do you think? Will Carlsen's match experience prove decisive, or will Caruana's solid 2018 form give him the edge? Two months out...
Poll closes on September 17th at midnight UT
