Carlsen vs Caruana: Looking back and looking ahead

by Conrad Schormann
9/9/2018 – The World Championship match between Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana in London will begin in exactly two months on November 9th, and their last direct encounter before the match in London was at the Sinquefield Cup 2018 in Saint Louis. Together they won the tournament along with Levon Aronian. They drew each other, although Carlsen was close to winning. What does that mean for the World Championship in London? CONRAD SCHORMANN looks for answers, and you can have your say in our poll! | Graphic: World Chess

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Onward to London

As the World Championship match in London approaches, Magnus Carlsen can feel Fabiano Caruana breathing down his neck. For six years Carlsen has been the number one on the rating list but had Fabiano Caruana won his direct encounter with Carlsen in round seven of the Sinquefield Cup 2018 in Saint Louis he would have been the new number one on the live rating list, and presumably also the September FIDE list.

Carlsen sketch by Willum Morsch

No wonder the last game between C&C before their match in London was a nervy affair. "There was a lot at stake today. I was a bit nervous," admitted Carlsen after the game; a game that showed that the World Champion is able to play his best when under pressure — at least for 26 moves.

Now he has to work on keeping the tension high before the opponent admits defeat. In Saint Louis, he failed to do so — and in spectacular fashion. When he was close to winning against Caruana, Carlsen decided to enter the "Confessional" to go live on air to send a message to his critics to shut up. He did so with a gesture that is quite common in professional sport but has never been seen before in the history of chess.

Right: Carlsen as seen by Willum Morsch (@WillumTM on Twitter)

Carlsen endeavouring to silence his critics?

However, when returning from the "Confessional" things no longer went smoothly. Carlsen lost his way, missed the almost winning move 27.f5-f6, and allowed Caruana to save his neck.

 
Carlsen vs Caruana, Round 7
Position after 26...Rh7

The position was ripe for 27.f6 Nd5 28.Ng4 g6 29.c4 with a solid white edge

To bring a confident and optimistic mood to the board in London, Caruana and Carlsen will both try to focus on what was good for them in their recent encounters. Both will find a lot. Carlsen will be optimistic because he was on top of Caruana in their most recent games, Caruana will like that he managed to draw two of the three games he might have lost and that, all in all, he has played at least on the same level as Carlsen — if not better.

After winning two World Championship matches against Viswanathan Anand, Carlsen enjoyed the reputation of being a patient and ruthless finisher who will bring the game home, and who basically forces his opponents to collapse if he manages to build up and to sustain just a little bit of pressure. Recently he seemed to have lost this ability but in Saint Louis, he might have found it again.

Caruana sketch by Willum Morsch

Though he lost his grip on the game against Caruana, two long wins against Nakamura and Karjakin helped Carlsen to win the tournament together with Caruana and Aronian.

But Carlsen was unhappy about his pragmatism which actually is a hallmark of his style. The position from the game against Caruana in which he could have cashed in with 27.f6! is, in a way, similar to a position from a game against Wojtaszek played in May 2018. In this game Carlsen played his own version of a Sicilian and saw the winning move 18.Nd5! but preferred a solid move which kept the pressure instead of spending a lot of time searching for a possible immediate win. Against Wojtaszek, this approach to shy away from concrete play worked, against Caruana it gave the game away.

Above: Caruana as seen by Willum Morsch

Or, as Grandmaster Jonathan Tisdall put it on his blog last week:

Magnus did what he used to do best, use absolutely every atom of possibility in every position, and just pose too many problems. While it was encouraging that this power has returned, he will almost certainly need to produce a little bit more in terms of problems vs. Caruana. One cannot count on trouble at the molecular level being enough to wear down the challenger.

Recently Caruana has had considerable difficulties against Carlsen but all in all, Caruana had a fantastic 2018. Even at the Altibox Norway tournament in Stavanger where Carlsen had homecourt advantage and Caruana lost in their direct encounter, he still managed to finish ahead of the World Champion.

Carlsen-Caruana, Altibox 2018

 
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1.e4 e5 2.Bc4 Nf6 3.d3 c6 4.Nf3 d5 5.Bb3 Bb4+ 6.Bd2 Bxd2+ 7.Nbxd2 a5 8.c3 Nbd7 9.exd5 cxd5 10.0-0 0-0 11.Re1 Re8 12.Nf1 b5 13.a4 b4 14.cxb4 axb4 15.Ne3 Bb7 16.d4 e4 17.Ne5 Nxe5 18.dxe5 Rxe5 19.Qd4 Re7 20.Rac1 Rd7 21.Red1 h6 22.Rc5 Ra5 23.Rxa5 Qxa5 24.h3 Kh7 25.Rc1 Rc7 26.Rxc7 Qxc7 27.Qxb4 Qc1+ 28.Bd1 Ba6 29.Qd4 Be2 30.Kh2 Bxd1 31.Nxd1 Qc7+ 32.Kg1 Qc1 33.b4 e3 34.fxe3 Ne4 35.Qxd5 Nd2 36.Qf5+ Kh8 37.Qg4 f5 38.Qe2 Ne4 39.Qe1 Qa1 40.a5 Nd6 41.Qd2 Nc4 42.Qd4 Qc1 43.Kf1 Nxe3+ 44.Qxe3 Qxd1+ 45.Kf2 Qc2+ 46.Kg3 g5 47.Qe5+ Kh7 48.Kh2 f4 49.Qd5 Qa4 50.Qf7+ Kh8 51.Qg6 Qxb4 52.Qxh6+ Kg8 53.Qxg5+ Kh7 54.Qh5+ Kg7 55.Qg5+ Kh7 56.h4 Qd6 57.Qh5+ Kg7 58.Qg5+ Kh7 59.h5 f3+ 60.g3 f2 61.Qg6+ Kh8 62.Qxd6 f1Q 63.Qh6+ Kg8 64.Qe6+ Kh8 65.Qe3 Qb5 66.Qc3+ Kh7 67.g4 Qd5 68.Qc7+ Kg8 69.Kg3 Qe6 70.Qd8+ Kh7 71.Qd3+ Kh8 72.a6 Qe5+ 73.Kh3 Qa1 74.Qd8+ Kh7 75.Qe7+ Kh6 76.Qe3+ Kh7 77.a7 1–0
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Magnus Carlsen-Fabiano Caruana-1–02018C24Altibox Norway1

GM Daniel King analysis Round 1 of Norway Chess


The Reliable Petroff

The Petroff (or Russian) Defence which is characterised by the moves 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 has been popular at the highest levels for many years and enjoys the reputation of being an extremely solid defence.


The last clash before the match

Will we see further Petroff debates in London? At any rate, it will be World Championship match in which the number one and the number two of the world battle it out — the first such match in decades. And before the Candidates Tournament in Berlin it was even an open question who is the world's number two and if there's a clear number two at all. But in the last six months, Caruana has answered this question convincingly. If Caruana now finds a way to avoid getting regularly into trouble against Carlsen and stops the tactical mistakes that sometimes plague him he may well be the new number one at the end of November.

 
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1.e4       e5 2.Nf3 The champion invites his challenger to start the debate they will probably have in London before the match. Nf6 Of course. Will Caruana's Petroff hold, and will it give Caruana the bitterly needed counterchances with Black? And what will Carlsen have to offer against Caruana's main weapon against 1.e4 after months of preparation? These are crucial questions and the answers to them might have a huge impact on the match. 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.Nc3 Formerly a sideline, now a mainline like 5.d4. At the start of the year, in Wijk aan Zee 2018, Carlsen tried 5.Qe2 Qe7 6.d3 Nf6 7.Nc3 Qxe2+ 8.Bxe2 against Caruana but did not get much. 5...Nxc3 6.dxc3 Be7 7.Be3 Nc6 8.Bc4 A carlsenesque move that had not been played before on grandmaster level and that made Caruana think for seven minutes. Whether it is good for White to commit his bishop that early to such an exposed square is still open to debate. But at least Black cannot sing his usual song with ...Be6, ...Qd7 and ...0-0-0. But even if it is likely that Carlsen did not intend to play 8.Bc4 in London and two months before the match just wanted to give Caruana something to think about - after the favourable course of this game Carlsen will wonder whether he should not try 8.Bc4 again when battling for the crown. 8.Qd2 is the move that is almost automatically played. White keeps the white-squared bishop flexible and immediately castles queenside to then storm ahead on the kingside. Be6 9.0-0-0 Qd7 10.Kb1 Bf6 11.h4 0-0-0 is an often debated line that Caruana had already twice on the board. Recently, Black fared rather well with castling queenside after the line had become popular again and had given White good results at first. 8...0-0 9.Qd2 Bf5 A fighting move. White castled queenside, Black kingside and Black keeps material on the board. 9...Ne5 immediately questions the cheeky Bc4. 10.Nxe5 dxe5 11.0-0-0 Qxd2+ 12.Rxd2 does not seem to an ending that Black has to fear. The correspondence game Borzenko,A (2513)-Helbich,J (2545), ICCF email 2008, soon ended with a draw. 10.0-0-0 Qd7 11.Kb1 Rfe8N The bishop wants to hide on f8. Bf6 is only seemingly active and gives White a target to play against with g4 and g5. 12.h4 Bf8 13.h5 h6 14.Be2 Carlsen looks for and finds the best set-up before marching ahead on the kingside. The Bc4 no longer wants to be a target for Black who might attack it with ...Ne5. 14.Rdg1 would be the move most mere mortals would play but this is probably not as precise as Carlsen's move. Bg4 15.Nh2 Ne5 15...Bxh5 16.g4 Bg6 17.g5 h5 18.Nf1 followed by Ng3 would be pleasant for White. 16.Be2 16.Bb3 a5 16...Bxe2 17.Qxe2 d5 and Black threatens to drum up serious counterplay on the queenside with ...Nc4 and ...Qb5. 14...Bg4 15.Nh2 Bxe2 16.Qxe2 Ne5       "Strange, but I thought I should be okay here," explained Caruana after the game. "But then I was pushed back further and further and it would come to a difficult endgame, no matter what I do." To determine when things went downhill for Caruana is indeed not easy. Maybe he has to look for alternatives in this position. 16...d5 is the proposal of the engine after a lengthy and deep research. It now evaluates the position as equal. Black still has the idea ...Nc6-e5(-c4) and the freed Bf8 might help Black to generate play against the white king. Black also plans ...Rad8 which stops the Rd1 to join the attack on the kingside because Black has ...d4. Sometimes ...Bc5 might also be an option now, e.g. after 17.Rdg1?!. 17.g4 Rad8 18.Rhg1 18.Rdg1?! d4 18...Ne5 Perfect timing. The knight on c6 first takes care that ...d4 is in the air, which forces White to keep his rook on the d-file. Now, with the rook on g1, Black has time to stop the pin on the e-file and to let the horse gallop to c4. 19.b3 19.g5 Nc4 20.gxh6?? Qb5-+ 19.Bc1 f6 and Black is okay. 19...Qc6 20.Qd2 20.g5 Qxc3 Threatening the powerful ...Nc4, after which White will understand that the Bf8 can easily turn into a strong attacker. 20...f6 21.f4 Nf7 and the black knight has the route f7-d6-e4 which gives Black a good game.sichert dem Schwarzen gutes Spiel. 17.Bc1 Cool. White is not worried about discoveries on the e-file. Carlsen takes care that Black does not get counterplay against his king, e.g. with ...Qc6, ...Nc4 and ...Qb5. Similar to 14.Be2 he also removes all targets Black might have in the center. Qc6 18.f4 Nc4 19.Qd3 Qe4 A natural move to relieve the pressure but also an indicator that Black is first of all trying to avoid running into a devastating attack. US Grandmaster Robert Hess proposed the pawn sacrifice 19...d5 20.Qxd5 Qxd5 21.Rxd5 and now it seems as if Black had a little activity for the pawn but definitely not full compensation. Probably it is already too late to look for ways to equalize here. 20.g4 Ne3 21.Rde1 Qxd3 22.cxd3 Nd5 23.Reg1 Re6?! Switching to full defensive mode, often a mistake if there's an active alternative. Probably Caruana already had 24... Ne7 in mind, thinking that his position would be solid after the knight retreat, and therefore refrained from the better 23...Re2 24.g5 Kh7 24.g5 Black is under pressure, he has no counterplay, and after White's move he commits an error. Caruana had seen 26.f5! but thought that the move does not work. Ne7? Black had to play 24...Kh7 and it is not clear whether White has a way to break through. 24...hxg5 25.fxg5 Rae8 26.Ng4 was dismissed by Caruana: "If Black plays perfectly, he might be able to hold this." 25.gxh6± Rxh6 26.f5 For the first time, a win for White is in reach. While Caruana was looking for a defensive set-up Carlsen went into the "Confessional" to go live on air, wordlessly holding his index finger to his lips: "Critics, you better shup up, " was the message. "This backfired," Carlsen admitted after the game. Rh7 26...Rxh5?? 27.Ng4 Rxh1 28.Nf6+ Kh8 29.Rxh1# was the line Caruana missed when he played 23...Re6 with the idea 24...Ne7?. 27.Ng4?! Played with the erroneous belief that it does not matter whether White first plays Ng4 or f6. "My intuition said f6" Carlsen, who was more than dissatisfied, said after the game. "But I don't trust is, that is not a good sign." 27.Ng4 threatens Nf6+ but almost forces Black to play the manoeuvre ...Kh8 followed by ... Ng8 that keeps his kingside together. 27.f6 Nd5 28.Ng4 Threatening Nh6+. g6! and Black holds for the moment though he is without counterplay and under severe pressure. The seemingly more natural 28...Kh8? 29.Bg5 immediately wins material for White. Black cannot take on f6 because he will be mated. 27...Kh8 28.f6 Ng8 The black forces are a sorry sight but suddenly it is hard to see how White should continue. And now Carlsen started to use up tons of time without finding a plan to keep his complete control. 29.fxg7+ 29.h6!? is an intersting try to give a pawn to paralyse Black completely. Caruana expected 29.h6 and was not happy: "I can't move anything." Nxf6 29...gxh6 30.Rh5 30.Nxf6 gxf6 31.Re1± 29...Rxg7 30.Be3 c5 31.Bf4 31.Bd2 with the idea c4 and Bc3 still gives Black problems to solve. 31...Re8 The worst is over for Black. 32.Ne3 Rxg1+ 33.Rxg1 Re6 34.Nd5 Nf6 35.Nc7 Re2 36.Nb5 Re6 37.Rf1 37.Nxa7 Kh7! yields nothing for White. The h-pawn will drop, the black pieces are more centralised and more active then the white pieces. 37...Kg8 38.Nc7 Re2 39.Nb5 Re6 40.Nc7 Re2 41.Nb5 Re6 ½–½
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Carlsen,M2842Caruana,F2822½–½2018C42Sinquefield Cup7.1

Caruana and Carlsen will each have one more tournament before the November match. Caruana plays board one for the top-seeded USA team at the Batumi Olympiad starting September 23rd. There he will not only face strong opposition, providing a good warmup for the match, but the American team is also defending their 2016 Olympiad gold in Baku, this time as the Elo favourites.

Carlsen decided to give the Olympiad a pass but he will compete in the European Club Cup, beginning October 12th, in Halkidiki, Greece, for the Norwegian team Valerenga, ranked sixth.

So, what do you think? Will Carlsen's match experience prove decisive, or will Caruana's solid 2018 form give him the edge? Two months out...

Who will win the World Championship Match 2018?
Magnus Carlsen51
56%
Fabiano Caruana39
43%

Poll closes on September 17th at midnight UT

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Conrad Schormann, skilled newspaper editor, runs an agency for editing and communication in Überlingen, at Lake Constance. But he lacks time to play chess which is partly due to the fact that he very much likes to write about it, for Chessbase, in the Reddit chess forum, or for his chess teaching blog Perlen vom Bodensee...


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