Carlsen’s public statement: “I believe that Niemann has cheated more”

by ChessBase
9/26/2022 – A day after getting a convincing victory at the Generation Cup, as he anticipated, Magnus Carlsen has shared a public statement regarding the polemic surrounding his withdrawal from the Sinquefield Cup and his quick resignation against Hans Niemann. The world champion wrote: “I believe that Niemann has cheated more — and more recently — than he has publicly admitted”. | Photo: Amruta Mokal
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“He wasn’t even fully concentrating”

Magnus Carlsen has finally explicitly stated why he took two dramatic decisions in the last few weeks: to withdraw from the Sinquefield Cup after three rounds and to resign a game on move 2 against Hans Niemann at the Generation Cup.

It had to do, as we all suspected, with Hans Niemann’s alleged cheating. 

The statement appeared on the same day that the US Chess Federation announced the field for the 2022 edition of the US Championships, with Hans Niemann in the lineup.

Useful links

Carlsen’s statement

Originally posted on Twitter

Dear Chess World,

At the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, I made the unprecedented professional decision to withdraw from the tournament after my round three game against Hans Niemann. A week later during the Champions Chess Tour, I resigned against Hans Niemann after playing only one move.

I know that my actions have frustrated many in the chess community. I’m frustrated. I want to play chess. I want to continue to play chess at the highest level in the best events.

I believe that cheating in chess is a big deal and an existential threat to the game. I also believe that chess organizers and all those who care about the sanctity of the game we love should seriously consider increasing security measures and methods of cheat detection for over the board chess. When Niemann was invited last minute to the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, I strongly considered withdrawing prior to the event. I ultimately chose to play.

I believe that Niemann has cheated more — and more recently — than he has publicly admitted. His over the board progress has been unusual, and throughout our game in the Sinquefield Cup I had the impression that he wasn’t tense or even fully concentrating on the game in critical positions, while outplaying me as black in a way I think only a handful of players can do. This game contributed to changing my perspective.

We must do something about cheating, and for my part going forward, I don’t want to play against people that have cheated repeatedly in the past, because I don’t know what they are capable of doing in the future.

There is more that I would like to say. Unfortunately, at this time I am limited in what I can say without explicit permission from Niemann to speak openly. So far I have only been able to speak with my actions, and those actions have stated clearly that I am not willing to play chess with Niemann. I hope that the truth on this matter comes out, whatever it may be.

Sincerely,
Magnus Carlsen – World Chess Champion

Topics: Hans Niemann, Magnus Carlsen
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genem genem 9/27/2022 05:47
In the Sinquefield tournament, I wonder whether Carlsen would have implied his accusation against Neimann IF the 15 minute broadcast delay had been used from round 1 onward? It becomes very hard to see how anyone could cheat when metal detectors and a broadcast delay are both used for security.
How much longer before FIDE requires all broadcast tournaments to use a delay?

Otherwise, maybe no 2600 player should be allowed to play against a 2777 player, because any victory by 2600 will generate suspicion and perhaps accusations too.

I have no opinion on whether Neimann cheated, or whether Carlsen's accusatory behavior is libel. But Carlsen needs to provide real evidence. It is fine if Carlsen refuses to enter tournaments where Neimann is playing, but when it comes to tweeting implicit accusations...
Daniel Miller Daniel Miller 9/27/2022 05:44
As a lawyer, I see people throwing around burdens of proof that are not relevant. It is enough for me that Hans cheated many times before. It does not matter whether it was online or live. His actions show that he values winning over fairplay and will do what's necessary to meet his high expectations of himself. It is a lack of character. Look, a cheater may go periods of time without cheating but he will always be a risk and that will affect the other participants' psyche. We cannot have that. We need to protect chess and not protect the cheaters. The fact that he has cheated at least once, means we cannot invite him to money tournaments ever again. Rex and Tony Rich need to protect chess integrity and not force the players we love to play with a past cheater.
Dekenba Dekenba 9/27/2022 05:28
Who to believe?

Man who has won multiple world titles & is considered by many as the best chess player of all time.
Or
Man who has been caught cheating twice, whom Chess.com accused of cheating online more regularly than the two instances made public.

Excuse me if I side firmly with Magnus. He's intelligent enough to not ruin his career with unprovable accustions, nor to leave himself exposed legally. Saying he needs Hans permission to explain more suggests he has all the evidence he needs, but Hans hasn't given him permission to produce it.

Magnus is calling Hans bluff. What Hans does next will speak for itself - if he declines to allow Magnus to discuss whatever it is he has, then we know Hans is hiding something. As he's already been caught cheating twice - with Chess.com saying they've evidence he did so more than twice - it'll mean Hans has basically admitted to more cheating.

Hans is in big trouble.
saturn23 saturn23 9/27/2022 04:21
Science22 - Regarding the twitter link you posted (https://twitter.com/ATL_kings/status/1568656197812891653), some people claim in the comments that the data is not quite accurate. Also, why is the analysis limited to 2019-2020? Others have pointed out that those conclusions do not hold if you consider Niemann's performance in the last year. Here is a comment made by Nikos Ntirlis:

"I checked all the FIDE-rated tournaments of HN for 2022. All broadcasted live. He lost elo in 5 of them.
Going 12 months back, I found 3 tournaments with no live transmission. He won 6, 11 and 18 elo points in those 3..."

It looks like the person who made that analysis specifically selected a time period (March 2019 - November 2020) that allows them to reach those conclusions.
pascal2010 pascal2010 9/27/2022 03:51
so many experts here.....i'm confused hehe
Chessoutpost Chessoutpost 9/27/2022 03:42
Correct me if I am wrong, but the game in St. Louis was played Over the Board. They have anti-cheating protocols in over the board events. They are checked for phones, electronics, etc. How would he have cheated over the board in that game? Someone signaling moves to him over the board? Did he leave the board often in the critical positions? This is the point that needs to be vetted and explained. If professionals at the highest level have found a way to cheat in a relatively secure event over the board the game will always be in question. If Magnus refuses to play Niemann over a camera/internet event that is his choice/protest. If he refuses to play him over the board then that's an entirely different matter. To accuse someone of cheating is a very serious charge. The burden of proof is much higher over the board. He must offer some evidence other than "I suspect". That is not a credible claim. Magnus has been the gold standard in chess for over a decade now. I hope he provides something concrete. It is always possible that Niemann was highly motivated for the game and played above his level, and Magnus played below. Without clarity and evidence of real proof, it hurts Magnus and chess which is a bad thing. If Magnus has found a way that players can cheat over the board in a small venue event, then it must be vetted and addressed. Suspicion alone is not enough.
tauno tauno 9/27/2022 03:24
I think there is a nice rhetorical trick in this statement: Carlsen uses the word "believe" three times. If you change that word to "confident" you will see what I mean. (There are a couple of others too, but this one was new to me.)
Jack Nayer Jack Nayer 9/27/2022 02:50
Science22: Ken Regan's method is useless to find what he is supposedly looking for. It is ridiculous. I don't like your test either. Let Niemann play some games against strong GMs, as you say, in an absolutely secured room. No explanation needed. I very much expect that the result will speak for itself. I am not the only one.
Science22 Science22 9/27/2022 02:45
Sorry, i forgot to copy the links given from another user :
https://twitter.com/ATL_kings/status/1568656197812891653
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ

I have been teaching statistics for 40 years. Hans Niemann's performance live and not live differ in a statistically significant way. It cannot be the same person playing. No human can perform so different in a systematic way.
saturn23 saturn23 9/27/2022 02:36
Science22 - The fact that he played the move you mentioned (Nh2!) does not mean anything. It does not mean that he saw all the consequences of the move. It is one of a few moves that any player would consider in that position. And from what I have seen on reddit the analysis provided by Yosha Iglesias seems to be suspect.

If you think that Lance Armstrong is the only one who cheated in cycling I have bad news for you. It is pretty much a known fact that (likely) everybody in cycling uses performance enhancing drugs (as it is the case in many athletic disciplines). 9 out of the 10 fastest sprinters have been caught using performance enhancing drugs at some point in their careers (the only exception is Usain Bolt, a name too big to be exposed).
Science22 Science22 9/27/2022 02:12
In the years 1999-2005, the American Lance Armstrong won the Tour de France 7 years in a row. Few dared to say that the emperor was naked as in H.C. Andersen's fairy tale. In January 2013, Lance Armstrong finally admitted that he was doped.

I am deeply impressed by Yosha Iglesias and Atlanta King, who separately provide some crushing evidence that Hans Niemann uses computers to play his games. Niemann plays as ELO 2400 in tournaments that are not broadcast online. Contrary in online games, he sometimes sees 15 moves ahead (Nh2!) in pure Alpha Zero style. He always gain ELO online and lose not online.

The difference is statistically significant and pierces through the analysis that Kenneth Regan has provided by mixing tournaments together. Regan forgets that the most important thing for the validity of a mathematical model is that the assumptions are thoroughly investigated.

My own test is very simple. Let Niemann play 10 games with standard thinking time against 10 strong grandmasters (+ 2600 players) in a room where there is no communication with the outside world.
After each game, Nieman must explain what he considered to be important moments in the game, as well as motivate why he chose the moves they did. No fraudster will be able to provide an analysis of his games corresponding to ELO 2850 without actually having ELO 2850.
Aighearach Aighearach 9/27/2022 01:55
He basically describes himself having a nervous breakdown during a game where his op played slightly weak moves and he himself blundered.

But even weeks later, he's blaming his opponent for that?

He needs to be strongly sanctioned by FIDE at this point.
binnun binnun 9/27/2022 01:08
Well, chess is a mind game. It seems, Hans Niemann is better at that than Magnus Carlsen, who has lost it (pun intended).
Future_Champion Future_Champion 9/27/2022 01:08
I think Magnus does not have the proof to say Hans Had cheated. Because he said " I Believe " . But he did not said I have proof against Niemann !!. And ok Niemann has cheat in the past and we all can see on his analyzes at the Sinquefield Cup that Hans is not a clearly a 2700's Elite player. But he can have potential, but not yet. But also is not fair from Carlsen's accuaciton against Niemann with out concrete proof of "cheating" because he is destroying Niemann's career. But If I'll be in Niemann's shoes and I am innocent of cheating. I will do my statement as well against Carlsen of false accusations......To Be Continue
Frits Fritschy Frits Fritschy 9/27/2022 01:03
To add to all this: this is not just about Hans Niemann. I have no idea what he has or has not done. It is mainly about all players who might be accused and blacklisted just because a stronger player says so after losing to one of them.
Did you have an outstanding tournament? You took away their prize money, so you're a suspect at least.
Magic_Knight Magic_Knight 9/27/2022 12:57
I knew it would be anti-climatic.....but I had no idea it would be a disappointment like this. All MC has is "he wasn't fully concentrating?" LMAO...

The only thing here, as it always was from the day it started, is the smell of a sore loser.
Frits Fritschy Frits Fritschy 9/27/2022 12:56
Zdrak,
Accusing someone openly of cheating without any reasonable evidence is an offence according to the FIDE Handbook. Me and others have repeatedly given the relevant links before, but you can find it yourself.
Ajeeb007 Ajeeb007 9/27/2022 12:54
The implication is that Carlsen "had the impression" that Niemann was cheating OTB in the Sinquefield Cup. Well, that sinks it. Niemann was cheating. Forget Ken Regan's recognized expertise in this area. Evidence? No, we don't need any evidence of OTB cheating to wreck the guy's career. The smell test is good enough.
chessgod0 chessgod0 9/27/2022 12:50
@adbennet
Agree--Chessbase coverage of this has been exemplary and it's good they are finally leaving comments open again.

re: Carlsen...I support him. He doesn't have to play anyone he doesn't want to and once someone is a cheater it is almost impossible to trust that person is on the level again. I appreciate him sticking to his position despite the mass outrage against him and would not be surprised if this fueled him to further greatness over the board.
tauno tauno 9/27/2022 12:42
Let us put it in this way:
It had to do, as we all suspected, with Carlsen’s cheating allegations.

”This game contributed to changing my perspective.”
-Why can’t you just admit that you just played poorly, lost and got angry?

”I believe that Niemann has cheated more - and more recently - than what he has publicly admitted.”
- Believe, believe. I can believe too. I believe I’m paranoid, but my doctor said there is no evidence.

”Unfortunately, at this time I am limited in what I can say without explicit permission from Niemann to speak openly.”
- What the heck! Do you need an explicit permission by Niemann to speak openly? About what? And if so, why haven’t you asked him? Or maybe you have and he said no?

“I am not willing to play chess with Niemann.“
- I understand. Partly because you have to try to defend and justify your actions, partly because you can't apologize because it would hurt so much.

After all, I have to say I am very impressed by Carlsen’s statement and his mentor must be doing a great job. Nah, only kidding. I’m disappointed. Magnus and his team have had so many days to prepare Carlsen’s defense speech and this was all they have to offer. But anyway, well written. Let's hope FIDE appreciates elegant formulations.
doctormate doctormate 9/27/2022 12:23
I believe Dr Ken Regan more than I do Carlsen in this context.
chamishavolkov chamishavolkov 9/27/2022 12:17
Richie Rapport should seriously have got vaccinated. What an ordeal.
saturn23 saturn23 9/26/2022 11:57
We need to highlight a few very important points:

1. So far Carlsen has provided absolutely no evidence that Niemann is cheating in over the board chess.

2. In his statement Carlsen is apparently implying that Niemann cheated against him at Sinquefield Cup (claiming that "he wasn’t tense or even fully concentrating on the game").

3. If Carlsen has evidence that Niemann cheated it is very selfish to keep that evidence for himself. If Niemann is a cheater then all his potential opponents should be aware of that.

Hopefully some chess players are also going to change "their perspective" and be unwilling to play chess with someone who is willing to destroy another player's career based on his feelings.
adbennet adbennet 9/26/2022 11:52
Once again I applaud ChessBase's sober restraint in their coverage of this surreal story. Also that they are willing to leave the comments section open.
physica physica 9/26/2022 11:44
Let's go...

to the court!

What if other players refuse to play H.N.? He will win every tournament by default?

Gotta give it to M.C sticking on his impression and not backing down to preserve his face. Niemann's results are suspicious: based on Sinquefield Cup, he could've taken the whole tournament if he'd converted his winning positions. Quite unprecedented if a 2600 could've won an elite 2700 tournament with such performance. Quite unprecedented at highest human level if one stumbles into winning positions with accident/skill and botches them regularly...
Zdrak Zdrak 9/26/2022 11:39
I was not aware that Twitter requires "procedure" or "real proof" before posting a few lines of text. Frits Fritschy, you are putting the cart before the horse. The standard of proof will only become relevant should FIDE decide to ban Niemann, or otherwise sanction him. Meanwhile, Niemann hasn't been banned, fined or sanctioned by FIDE, and all we have is the World Champion expressing his opinion.
As for your mention of "at least an indication", Carlsen clearly indicated that he "had the impression that [Niemann] wasn’t tense or even fully concentrating on the game in critical positions, while outplaying me as black in a way I think only a handful of players can do". Whether you agree or not, that's an indication.
John Maccormack John Maccormack 9/26/2022 11:32
Unless someone can cheat by invisible means while also leaving absolutely no clues in his play pattern that a recognized expert could detect by computer analysis, this announcement rings hollow. Tell us more.
ChessSpawnVermont ChessSpawnVermont 9/26/2022 11:25
No substance whatsoever to Carlsen's accusation. His belief is meaningless absent concrete factual proof that Niemann cheated otb in St. Louis.

NOTE to Carlsen: You do not need Niemann's permission to set forth factual proof that Niemann cheated otb against you, if you have relevant facts as opposed to subjective feeling about Niemann's demeanor during the otb game in St. Louis. Perhaps Niemann was just acting to psych you out. If so, it clearly worked.

All Carlsen has presented is supposition and suspicion regarding otb cheating by Niemann in St. Louis. Carsen is a disgrace to his championship.
Jack Nayer Jack Nayer 9/26/2022 11:10
#We must do something about cheating, and for my part going forward, I don’t want to play against people that have cheated repeatedly in the past, because I don’t know what they are capable of doing in the future."
Good Carlsen, good!
Frits Fritschy Frits Fritschy 9/26/2022 10:53
Again breaking news: Carlsen believes Niemann cheated. Of course the chess world wasn't aware of that. And what is the proof, or at least the indication? That he played well and that Carlsen believes that was unnatural.
Again: rules? procedures? real proof?
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