What if the World Championship match is decided in blitz games?

by New In Chess
11/21/2018 – Two years ago, in New York, Magnus Carlsen defended his title by winning the rapid tiebreaker. Traditionalists will shudder at the thought of blitz games deciding the world championship match in London. GM MAXIM DLUGY looks at the players’ chances if that scenario becomes reality and has suggestions for how Fabiano Caruana, despite a whopping rating gap of 172(!) points, might beat the odds.

ChessBase 18 - Mega package ChessBase 18 - Mega package

Winning starts with what you know
The new version 18 offers completely new possibilities for chess training and analysis: playing style analysis, search for strategic themes, access to 6 billion Lichess games, player preparation by matching Lichess games, download Chess.com games with built-in API, built-in cloud engine and much more.

More...

New in Chess on the potential tiebreak scenario

As the World Championship between Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana was around the corner, and the bookmakers’ odds were only slightly in favour of the World Champion, there seems to be every reason to wonder what would happen if, after 12 classical games, we’d see a tiebreaker with a faster time-control. Whether there would be rapid games, as we saw in New York two years ago, when Magnus faced Sergey Karjakin,  or whether we would even go to blitz games if the rapid games yield no decision either.

NIC special issueWhile Magnus Carlsen also excels in rapid and blitz chess, Fabiano Caruana’s strength clearly lies in the classical time-control. Does this mean that Magnus has the pleasant option of just coasting to the tiebreaker, as he did against Karjakin once he had equalized the score with two games to go? Is the champ such a clear favourite in the faster time-controls that his challenger will have to steer clear of the tiebreak at all cost and put all his efforts into the first 12 games?

On the face of it — yes! At the time of writing, the difference between the two players in the classical time-control is 12 rating points, while the difference in the rapid ratings is 91 points, and the gap in the blitz ratings even a whopping 172 points!

From my discussions with former World Champion Anatoly Karpov, who had the privilege of talking to Arpad Elo, the inventor of the current rating system, I learnt that the difference in ratings is just an indication of the expected score between players in the long run, and in no way an indication of a foregone conclusion. In fact, Prof. Elo was annoyed when FIDE decided to use his system to include and exclude players from certain events, merely on the basis of these numbers — he never meant it to be used that way. 

Notwithstanding this, we live in a practical world, and it does seem to us that if a player is 170 points lower, he is the underdog, even if we shouldn’t expect the top dog to automatically score 7½ points in a 10-game match, as predicted by the rating system. This doesn’t bode well for Caruana, who it seems has shown serious weakness in playing blitz against the top players in the world. His recent 20½-6½ loss to Levon Aronian in the Chess.com championship created a sensation, while his struggling in the blitz part of the Grand Chess Tour has become the norm, rather than the exception.

Does that mean that Magnus only needs to tie the match, split the four rapid games and finish Fabiano off in the two-game blitz playoff? I don’t think it will be that simple. First of all, as any odds player knows, the positive expectation of results plays out very well over the long haul, but in a short match, anything can happen. Even if Fabiano’s expectation in a two-game blitz match is half a point out of 2, it’s very easy to beat the odds, either by catching your opponent with an opening novelty and winning one game or simply by managing to draw both games, which would take the match to a totally unpredictable Armageddon shoot-out. The nervous tension in those two blitz games would be as high as with a throw-in in the final seconds of a basketball game with the shooter’s team down one point. Here, too, the ability to control your nerves will be the main factor.

To showcase what can happen when time runs short, I would like to direct the reader to the following incredible game, which may hopefully demonstrate the kind of situation that could arise in the final countdown. This blitz game, played last year between Fabiano and Magnus in the Paris leg of the Grand Chess Tour, demonstrates how a lack of time can make the best players in the world come up with seemingly random moves.

 
New ...
Open...
Share...
Layout...
Flip Board
Settings
MoveNResultEloPlayers
1.e41,165,57054%2421---
1.d4946,47455%2434---
1.Nf3281,31256%2441---
1.c4181,93756%2442---
1.g319,68856%2427---
1.b314,23654%2427---
1.f45,88648%2377---
1.Nc33,79651%2384---
1.b41,75348%2380---
1.a31,19754%2403---
1.e31,06848%2408---
1.d394850%2378---
1.g466246%2361---
1.h444653%2374---
1.c342651%2425---
1.h327956%2416---
1.a410860%2468---
1.f39147%2431---
1.Nh38966%2508---
1.Na34262%2482---
1.Nf3 d5 2.g3 Nf6 3.Bg2 Bg4 4.0-0 e6 5.d3 Be7 6.h3 Bh5 7.Nbd2 c5 8.e4 Nc6 9.Re1 dxe4 10.dxe4 0-0 11.e5?! A dubious decision, extending the scope of Black's light-squared bishop on the b1-h7 diagonal. Nd7 12.g4 Bg6 13.Nc4 Nb4 14.Ne3 Nb6 15.Qe2 N6d5 With more time on the clock, Magnus would probably have preferred a gradual improvement of his already comfortable position with 15...Qc7 , with ideas of ...Nc6 and ...c4, when Black is already significantly better. 16.Rd1 Qc7 17.Nxd5 Nxd5 18.a3 c4 19.Nd4 Rfd8 20.Kh1 It was better to simplify the position with 20.Nf5 exf5 21.Bxd5 , since White's d4-knight has a smaller radius of action than its colleague on d5. 20...c3 21.b4 Qb6 22.Nb3 Rd7 23.f4 Rad8 24.Rf1 Black has somehow lost momentum, because the pawn on c3, although strong in itself, is blocking Black's pieces from entering White's position. Time for some fun! h6 25.f5 Bh7 26.Na5 The direct approach 26.f6 Bf8 27.fxg7 Bxg7 28.Nc5 Rc7 29.Qf2 looked more promising, even though Black could arrange for counterplay by sacrificing the rook for the annoying knight with Rdc8 30.Qh4 Rxc5 31.bxc5 Qxc5 32.Bxh6 Bxc2 , with an unclear position. 26...Qc7 27.Nc4 A strange move, since the knight doesn't really have anywhere to go to. Again, 27.f6 would have been better. 27...b5 Even stronger was 27...Rc8! , forcing White to withdraw the knight or to sacrifice a pawn by jumping to d6. Objectively, Black's advantage would be nearly decisive in that case. 28.Na5 a6 29.Nb3 Nb6 30.Bf4 It's not clear how exactly White wants to break through on the kingside, since Black's control of the d-file and of some key squares is extremely annoying. Nc4 31.Bg3 Bg5?! Entering the dragon with 31...Nd2! was crushing. White cannot allow Black a passed pawn on d2, and must start giving away a serious amount of material. 32.Rf3 Rd2 Nice, but not at all necessary. 32...Nd2 was still winning. 33.Nxd2 cxd2 34.h4 Now begins a series of the most incredible mistakes recorded in a game between two world top chess players. Of course, it is a blitz game, but let's just see what happens before drawing our own conclusions. Ne3? A losing move. After the best sequence 34...Be3 35.Rd1 Nb2 36.Rxe3 Qxc2 37.Rxd2 Rxd2 38.Qf3 Qd1+ 39.Kh2 Qxf3 40.Rxf3 exf5 41.gxf5 Nc4 42.e6 Bxf5! 43.exf7+ 43.Rxf5 Rxg2+! 43...Kf8 44.Rf2 Rxf2 45.Bxf2 Kxf7 the endgame should be a draw. 35.hxg5 d1Q+ 36.Rxd1 Rxd1+ 37.Kh2? Now it's White's turn to go wrong. After 37.Be1! Black's knight cannot keep defending the rook on d1, and White collects an exchange with a winning position. 37...Nxg4+ 38.Kh3 Rd4? This logical-looking move, guarding the knight on g4, is a losing mistake. Black could have kept the balance with the incisive 38...Qd7‼ 39.g6 fxg6 . Now the position is completely crazy, because Black has three viable options: ...g5, ...Rd2 and ...gxf5, all leading to roughly level positions. For example: 40.Kxg4 g5 41.Bf2‼ Bxf5+ 42.Kg3 Rd2 43.Qe1 Rxc2 44.Kh2 . 39.g6 fxg6 40.fxe6 g5 41.Rf7 The unlikely 41.c3! was even stronger, overloading the rook on d4, but Fabi's move is also quite strong. Now we see that White needs to get rid of Black's defending knight on g4 as quickly as possible. 41...Qc8 But here White played: 42.Qf3?? This move turns a winning position into a losing one and deserves two question marks. The only winning move, and a logical one, was 42.Rd7! Rxd7 43.exd7 Qxd7 44.e6 , winning the knight on g4. 42...Bg6?? Black's logical-looking reply is also a losing blunder, turning a win into a loss. Instead, Black should have given his king breathing room with a tempo as follows: 42...Be4 43.Qb3 Bxg2+ 44.Kxg2 Qc6+ 45.Qf3 Qxe6 , with a totally winning position. 43.Re7?? The third double question mark in a row, returning the favour again. The winning concept 43.Rd7! Rxd7 44.exd7 Qxd7 is now demonstrated with 45.Qd5+ Qxd5 46.Bxd5+ , picking up the knight on g4. 43...Nxe5?? Magnus once again plays a losing move in a winning position. The correct idea was to finally protect the knight on g4 with 43...h5! , whereupon White's Rd7 would no longer work. 44.Qf2?? Fabiano is playing the same game. His winning combination now started with a queen sacrifice as follows: 44.Bxe5‼ g4+ 45.Qxg4 Rxg4 46.Rxg7+ Kf8 47.e7+ Ke8 48.Rg8+ Kxe7 49.Rxc8 Bf5 50.Rc5! , and Black is down a piece without a significant discovered check by the rook. 44...Qd8?? The final mistake in this incredible battle of nerves. Black plays another losing move instead of winning with 44...Qc3‼ with the very unpleasant threat of 45... Rh4 mate. After 45.Ba8 Rd2 it becomes pretty clear that White is simply lost. 45.Rxg7+! Kxg7 46.Bxe5+ Kg8 47.Bxd4 Qd6 48.Qf6 g4+ 49.Kxg4 and the World Champion resigned. 1–0
  • Start an analysis engine:
  • Try maximizing the board:
  • Use the four cursor keys to replay the game. Make moves to analyse yourself.
  • Press Ctrl-B to rotate the board.
  • Drag the split bars between window panes.
  • Download&Clip PGN/GIF/FEN/QR Codes. Share the game.
  • Games viewed here will automatically be stored in your cloud clipboard (if you are logged in). Use the cloud clipboard also in ChessBase.
  • Create an account to access the games cloud.
WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Fabiano Caruana-Magnus Carlsen-1–0

The Blitz Whisperer column, by Max Dlugy
Republished with kind permission of 
New in Chess magazine


Free 50-page Carlsen-Caruana Match Special

special World Championship issue includes a preview by Jan Timman and an interview with Sergey Karjakin about his 2016 match with Carlsen (who confesses to overlooking dedicated training in rapid in advance of the match)


About New In Chess Magazine

New In Chess is read by club players in 116 countries.

  • 8 issues a year
  • 800 pages a year of the very best in chess
  • game annotations by the best players on the planet 
  • on-the-spot tournament reports
  • columns both serious and hilarious
  • in-depth interviews
  • 'Secrets of Opening Surprises' 
  • chess history that comes to life
  • an honest GM opinion on the latest chess books
  • exclusive columns by Judit Polgar, Nigel Short, Hans Ree and others
  • the digital edition is available for iPad or iPhone, for Android tablet or phone and for Windows desktop and notebook (Windows 8 and 10)

The magazine has regular contributions from all the world’s best players: Magnus Carlsen, Wesley So, Fabiano Caruana, Anish Giri, Hikaru Nakamura, Vladimir Kramnik, Levon Aronian, Vishy Anand, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, Sergey Karjakin, Veselin Topalov, Alexander Grischuk, Judit Polgar and Hou Yifan. Editor-in-chief is Dirk Jan ten Geuzendam.


New In Chess (NIC) was founded in 1984 and appears eight times a year. It is read by club players in 116 countries. A yearly subscription for eight issues costs €79.99.

Discuss

Rules for reader comments

 
 

Not registered yet? Register

We use cookies and comparable technologies to provide certain functions, to improve the user experience and to offer interest-oriented content. Depending on their intended use, analysis cookies and marketing cookies may be used in addition to technically required cookies. Here you can make detailed settings or revoke your consent (if necessary partially) with effect for the future. Further information can be found in our data protection declaration.