11/21/2018 – Two years ago, in New York, Magnus Carlsen defended his title by winning the rapid tiebreaker. Traditionalists will shudder at the thought of blitz games deciding the world championship match in London. GM MAXIM DLUGY looks at the players’ chances if that scenario becomes reality and has suggestions for how Fabiano Caruana, despite a whopping rating gap of 172(!) points, might beat the odds.
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New in Chess on the potential tiebreak scenario
As the World Championship between Magnus Carlsen and Fabiano Caruana was around the corner, and the bookmakers’ odds were only slightly in favour of the World Champion, there seems to be every reason to wonder what would happen if, after 12 classical games, we’d see a tiebreaker with a faster time-control. Whether there would be rapid games, as we saw in New York two years ago, when Magnus faced Sergey Karjakin, or whether we would even go to blitz games if the rapid games yield no decision either.
While Magnus Carlsen also excels in rapid and blitz chess, Fabiano Caruana’s strength clearly lies in the classical time-control. Does this mean that Magnus has the pleasant option of just coasting to the tiebreaker, as he did against Karjakin once he had equalized the score with two games to go? Is the champ such a clear favourite in the faster time-controls that his challenger will have to steer clear of the tiebreak at all cost and put all his efforts into the first 12 games?
On the face of it — yes! At the time of writing, the difference between the two players in the classical time-control is 12 rating points, while the difference in the rapid ratings is 91 points, and the gap in the blitz ratings even a whopping 172 points!
From my discussions with former World Champion Anatoly Karpov, who had the privilege of talking to Arpad Elo, the inventor of the current rating system, I learnt that the difference in ratings is just an indication of the expected score between players in the long run, and in no way an indication of a foregone conclusion. In fact, Prof. Elo was annoyed when FIDE decided to use his system to include and exclude players from certain events, merely on the basis of these numbers — he never meant it to be used that way.
Scarcely any world champion has managed to captivate chess lovers to the extent Carlsen has. The enormously talented Norwegian hasn't been systematically trained within the structures of a major chess-playing nation such as Russia, the Ukraine or China.
Notwithstanding this, we live in a practical world, and it does seem to us that if a player is 170 points lower, he is the underdog, even if we shouldn’t expect the top dog to automatically score 7½ points in a 10-game match, as predicted by the rating system. This doesn’t bode well for Caruana, who it seems has shown serious weakness in playing blitz against the top players in the world. His recent 20½-6½ loss to Levon Aronian in the Chess.com championship created a sensation, while his struggling in the blitz part of the Grand Chess Tour has become the norm, rather than the exception.
Does that mean that Magnus only needs to tie the match, split the four rapid games and finish Fabiano off in the two-game blitz playoff? I don’t think it will be that simple. First of all, as any odds player knows, the positive expectation of results plays out very well over the long haul, but in a short match, anything can happen. Even if Fabiano’s expectation in a two-game blitz match is half a point out of 2, it’s very easy to beat the odds, either by catching your opponent with an opening novelty and winning one game or simply by managing to draw both games, which would take the match to a totally unpredictable Armageddon shoot-out. The nervous tension in those two blitz games would be as high as with a throw-in in the final seconds of a basketball game with the shooter’s team down one point. Here, too, the ability to control your nerves will be the main factor.
To showcase what can happen when time runs short, I would like to direct the reader to the following incredible game, which may hopefully demonstrate the kind of situation that could arise in the final countdown. This blitz game, played last year between Fabiano and Magnus in the Paris leg of the Grand Chess Tour, demonstrates how a lack of time can make the best players in the world come up with seemingly random moves.
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1.e4
1,186,706
54%
2421
---
1.d4
960,560
55%
2434
---
1.Nf3
286,913
56%
2440
---
1.c4
185,115
56%
2442
---
1.g3
19,902
56%
2427
---
1.b3
14,609
54%
2428
---
1.f4
5,959
48%
2376
---
1.Nc3
3,919
50%
2383
---
1.b4
1,791
48%
2379
---
1.a3
1,252
54%
2406
---
1.e3
1,081
49%
2409
---
1.d3
969
50%
2378
---
1.g4
670
46%
2361
---
1.h4
466
54%
2382
---
1.c3
439
51%
2425
---
1.h3
289
56%
2420
---
1.a4
118
60%
2461
---
1.f3
100
47%
2427
---
1.Nh3
93
66%
2506
---
1.Na3
47
62%
2476
---
Please, wait...
1.Nf3d52.g3Nf63.Bg2Bg44.0-0e65.d3Be76.h3Bh57.Nbd2c58.e4Nc69.Re1dxe410.dxe40-011.e5?!A dubious decision, extending the scope of Black's light-squared bishop on the b1-h7 diagonal.Nd712.g4Bg613.Nc4Nb414.Ne3Nb615.Qe2N6d5With more time on the clock, Magnus would probably have preferred a gradual improvement of his already comfortable position with15...Qc7, with ideas of ...Nc6 and ...c4, when Black is already significantly better.16.Rd1Qc717.Nxd5Nxd518.a3c419.Nd4Rfd820.Kh1It was better to simplify the position with20.Nf5exf521.Bxd5, since White's d4-knight has a smaller radius of action than its colleague on d5.20...c321.b4Qb622.Nb3Rd723.f4Rad824.Rf1Black has somehow lost momentum, because the pawn on c3, although strong in itself, is blocking Black's pieces from entering White's position. Time for some fun!h625.f5Bh726.Na5The direct approach26.f6Bf827.fxg7Bxg728.Nc5Rc729.Qf2looked more promising, even though Black could arrange for counterplay by sacrificing the rook for the annoying knight withRdc830.Qh4Rxc531.bxc5Qxc532.Bxh6Bxc2, with an unclear position.26...Qc727.Nc4A strange move, since the knight doesn't really have anywhere to go to. Again,27.f6would have been better.27...b5Even stronger was27...Rc8!, forcing White to withdraw the knight or to sacrifice a pawn by jumping to d6. Objectively, Black's advantage would be nearly decisive in that case.28.Na5a629.Nb3Nb630.Bf4It's not clear how exactly White wants to break through on the kingside, since Black's control of the d-file and of some key squares is extremely annoying.Nc431.Bg3Bg5?!Entering the dragon with31...Nd2!was crushing. White cannot allow Black a passed pawn on d2, and must start giving away a serious amount of material.32.Rf3Rd2Nice, but not at all necessary.32...Nd2was still winning.33.Nxd2cxd234.h4Now begins a series of the most incredible mistakes recorded in a game between two world top chess players. Of course, it is a blitz game, but let's just see what happens before drawing our own conclusions.Ne3?A losing move. After the best sequence34...Be335.Rd1Nb236.Rxe3Qxc237.Rxd2Rxd238.Qf3Qd1+39.Kh2Qxf340.Rxf3exf541.gxf5Nc442.e6Bxf5!43.exf7+43.Rxf5Rxg2+!43...Kf844.Rf2Rxf245.Bxf2Kxf7the endgame should be a draw.35.hxg5d1Q+36.Rxd1Rxd1+37.Kh2?Now it's White's turn to go wrong. After37.Be1!Black's knight cannot keep defending the rook on d1, and White collects an exchange with a winning position.37...Nxg4+38.Kh3Rd4?This logical-looking move, guarding the knight on g4, is a losing mistake. Black could have kept the balance with the incisive38...Qd7‼39.g6fxg6. Now the position is completely crazy, because Black has three viable options: ...g5, ...Rd2 and ...gxf5, all leading to roughly level positions. For example:40.Kxg4g541.Bf2‼Bxf5+42.Kg3Rd243.Qe1Rxc244.Kh2.39.g6fxg640.fxe6g541.Rf7The unlikely41.c3!was even stronger, overloading the rook on d4, but Fabi's move is also quite strong. Now we see that White needs to get rid of Black's defending knight on g4 as quickly as possible.41...Qc8But here White played:42.Qf3??This move turns a winning position into a losing one and deserves two question marks. The only winning move, and a logical one, was42.Rd7!Rxd743.exd7Qxd744.e6, winning the knight on g4.42...Bg6??Black's logical-looking reply is also a losing blunder, turning a win into a loss. Instead, Black should have given his king breathing room with a tempo as follows:42...Be443.Qb3Bxg2+44.Kxg2Qc6+45.Qf3Qxe6, with a totally winning position.43.Re7??The third double question mark in a row, returning the favour again. The winning concept43.Rd7!Rxd744.exd7Qxd7is now demonstrated with45.Qd5+Qxd546.Bxd5+, picking up the knight on g4.43...Nxe5??Magnus once again plays a losing move in a winning position. The correct idea was to finally protect the knight on g4 with43...h5!, whereupon White's Rd7 would no longer work.44.Qf2??Fabiano is playing the same game. His winning combination now started with a queen sacrifice as follows:44.Bxe5‼g4+45.Qxg4Rxg446.Rxg7+Kf847.e7+Ke848.Rg8+Kxe749.Rxc8Bf550.Rc5!, and Black is down a piece without a significant discovered check by the rook.44...Qd8??The final mistake in this incredible battle of nerves. Black plays another losing move instead of winning with44...Qc3‼with the very unpleasant threat of 45... Rh4 mate. After45.Ba8Rd2it becomes pretty clear that White is simply lost.45.Rxg7+!Kxg746.Bxe5+Kg847.Bxd4Qd648.Qf6g4+49.Kxg4and the World Champion resigned.1–0
The Blitz Whisperer column, by Max Dlugy Republished with kind permission of New in Chess magazine
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