Speelman on the Candidates: Fog of War

All photos by Amruta Mokal

One rest day and three rounds ago - an eternity given the drama in-between - I suggested that if Sergey Karjakin wobbled then it would be the winner of Caruana vs Anand, if there were one, who would be favourite.

That winner was Caruana, who not only supplanted Anand in the lead with Karjakin, but also gained a tiebreak advantage over Anand. When Anand defeated Karjakin in the next round he gave Caruana a chance to pull clear, but Caruana wobbled both in what at one moment was a winning position against Veselin Topalov; and then as white against Aronian.

Caruana with his second Rustam Kazimdhanov

Karjakin's defeat as black against Anand must have been very painful, but it was also potential pain that he must have foreseen at the back of his mind from the moment he took the lead in round four by beating Anand for the first time in his life. Karjakin roared back into action by beating Veselin Topalov on Friday, and when Anand stumbled badly against Hikaru Nakamura, Karjakin regained his position as joint leader and is very possibly the favourite, whatever the statisticians may say. This is because he has the crucial advantage that if he ends up equal with Caruana after drawing their last round game then he will win since they will be equal head to head but Caruana having won fewer games (and so also lost fewer) will lose out.

With such a prize at stake, and it being so close, almost anything could happen and normal expectations may well not really apply, but what I can do is to rehearse the standings and the pairings in the last two rounds:

Karjakin and Caruana resume battle on Sunday with 7.0/12, ahead of Anand's 6.5/12. Svidler, Aronian and Anish Giri have 6.0; Nakamura 5.5 and Topalov 4.0. The last two rounds are

Round 13

Caruana vs Svidler

Aronian vs Karjakin

Topalov vs Nakamura

Anand vs Giri

Round 14

Svidler vs Anand

Giri vs Topalov

Nakamura vs Aronian

Karjakin vs Caruana (!)

The rest day on Saturday is really important because it gives the players the chance to regain some measure of equilibrium before the final shoot out. This applies especially to Caruana and Anand after Caruana wobbled in both rounds 11 and 12 and Anand had a bad reversal in round 12.

I guess under normal conditions Caruana would have a higher expected score as white against Svidler than Karjakin as black against Aronian, but the most likely result is presumably two draws. Then Caruana would have to beat Karjakin as Black in the final round which would be a pretty big ask. That said, having to draw as White isn't always easy, with the last round game Mikhail Gurevich vs Nigel Short at the Manila Interzonal in 1990 being a shining example.

Anish Giri has been the image of consistency: 12 draws in 12 games

In fact, it's mathematically possible for any of the three on 6.0/12 to make it with the "right" results even if pretty unlikely (if FC 0-1 PS, LA 1-0 SK and VA doesn't beat AG there could be a five way tie for first before the last round and a sole winner would then be first). However, Anand is of course not to be discounted if he can break Giri's run of draws by beating him or if the two leaders imploded before their final round meeting.

Just as I was completing this, the initial statistical report came through from the simulation by James Jorasch and Chris Capobianco. To my surprise, it puts Caruana at 50% to win ahead of Karjakin 42 and Anand 4.5.

Still, that isn't really the point. Three men have to hold themselves together for three more days until the fog disperses. It's been a real pea-souper and increasingly hard for everyone to breathe.