Speelman on the Candidates final sprint

3/22/2016 – It has been a fascinating event as one would expect, with chances taken, chances missed, and chances grabbed. After nine rounds of competition, the veteran former World Champion Vishy Anand has elbowed and kicked his way to the top to join Sergey Karjakin in the lead. Anything still goes, and reviewing the results and stats, here is the assessment and prognosis by Jon Speelman.

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Speelman on the Candidates final sprint

By Jon Speelman

All photos by Amruta Mokal

A standard plot in old fashioned crime fiction (most famously in Agatha Christie's "Ten Little Indians") involves locking the protagonists in a closed system and then bumping them off one by one.

The Candidates tournament has something of this about it, admittedly without the actual killing. Of the eight who were lured to Moscow, just four are now effectively still alive in the battle for first place. They are of course the two leaders Viswanathan Anand and Sergey Karjakin and the two trailing half a point behind: Levon Aronian and Fabiano Caruana.

Anish Giri is only a further half a point behind but he really ought to have beaten Caruana in round nine and gets just a 5.7% chance of victory in the latest simulation by James Jorasch and Chris Capobianco. This looks a bit low to me since successive games of chess in a tournament are certainly not independent, but his next game as black against Karjakin really does look like a last chance saloon.

Anish Giri squandered a golden opportunity in round nine. Will this come to haunt him?

One of the most interesting things about this simulation is a point that they made about the tie-break: By beating Aronian in round nine on Monday, Anand not only moved ahead of him, but also established the better first tie-break which is head-to-head results. This means that Aronian now has to effectively score a full point more than Anand to overtake him (Reading the regulations article 3.7 it seems less obvious what happens if there's a three-way tie between, for example, Anand, Aronian and Karjakin, but I can't see that Aronian would ever be first).

The same article notes that the most critical "power games" in the final rounds will be between these four, and it's worth listing the head to head results thus far and the coming fixtures:

Anand 1.5 Aronian

Karjakin 1-0 Anand (Anand vs Karjakin is in round 11)

Anand 0.5 - 0.5 Caruana (Caruana vs Anand is in round 10 tomorrow)

Caruana 0.5 - 0.5 Karjakin (Karjakin vs Caruana is in round 14!)

Karjakin 0.5 - 0.5 Aronian (Aronian vs Karjakin is in round 13)

Aronian 0.5 - 0.5 Caruana (Caruana vs Aronian is in round 12)

Working abstractly, you can also note that Anand has had an extra white and the other three an extra black thus far, but the most important question from my perspective is the psychological one of momentum.

Anand's fine win against Aronian on Monday certainly gave him wings and set Aronian back. These guys are all very tough but Anand has the experience of world championship matches (both as champion and challenger) and of qualifying from the Candidates last time round and that is certainly likely to stand him in good stead.

Vishy Anand climbed to the top and is also the player with the most wins

Karjakin still seems to be managing to float along as if in a normal tournament. In one of the reports a few days ago he was asked about sleep and said that he's been having at least nine hours. That was the first moment when I really thought he might qualify, but as he himself pointed out: the real tension of the finish has yet to set in, and we'll have to see how he copes then.

Sergey Karjakin has not lacked energy, but he has still slowed down

Caruana has survived some huge scares and is still well in contention. I always thought that one of the very best ways to start a tournament (especially for somebody as miserably prepared theoretically as myself) was to escape from a lost position, thus getting your hand in and putting half a point (or even a whole if it was a spectacular escape) on the score table. You could see the first nine rounds in Moscow as an extended version of this for Caruana (of course with a couple of big misses by him too) and he must be cheerful after that great escape against Giri.

As for Aronian he's now got quite a large hill (if not a mountain) to climb, though he is more than capable of course.

Levon Aronian suffered a setback in round nine, but he is more than capable of bouncing back

I guess I ought to make some sort of prediction. The final rounds of the Candidates, especially the famous last round in London, have shredded the players' nerves. If, and it's a big if, he can keep calm than Karjakin surely is favourite not only statistically but in fact - though whatever his state of mind this should involve not losing to Anand on Thursday.

Otherwise it's most likely between Caruana and Anand and if there's a result in their round ten game on Wednesday then it will probably be in favour of the next challenger.

About the author

Jon was born in 1956 and became a professional player in 1977 after graduating from Worcester College Oxford where he read mathematics. He became an IM in 1977 a GM in 1980 and was a member of the English Olympic team from 1980-2006.

Three times British Champion he played twice in the Candidates reaching the semi-final  (of what was then a knockout series of matches) in 1989 when he lost 4.5 - 3.5 to Jan Timman. He's twice been a second at the world championship for Nigel Short and then Viswanathan Anand against Garry Kasparov in London 1993 and New York 1995.

He's written the Observer (weekly) since 1993 and The Independent since 1998. With its closure (going online but without Jon on board) he's expanding online activity and is also now offering online tuition.

He likes puzzles especially (cryptic) crosswords and killer sudokus.

If you'd like to lambast Jon or otherwise he can be contacted via his email

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Hawkman Hawkman 3/23/2016 09:07
I would have liked to see these articles written by Michael Adams.
Rational Rational 3/23/2016 08:23
Anand is class but he has 3 blacks 2 whites and is behind on tie break to Karjakin who has 3W and 2B, Sergei also finished the last Candidates the strongest.At this levelIf a player wants a draw with Whitehe can almost guarantee it.Anand White V Karjakin is crucial game.
Still all these 8 players are very even and dangerous. I had lost a lot of interest in chess but this tournament has got me really pumped again!
Resistance Resistance 3/23/2016 06:39
I think that, from what we've seen from the players so far (9 rounds), no one is an obvious favorite to win the tournament yet. But who has the better chances at this particular point? Anand, in my opinion. For he has managed to wrestle the psychological advantage from his opponents; he is in the lead, and he is playing solid chess (--also: Aronian lost (to him!), Naka is in second to last place, Giri isn't convinced of his chances now, and Fabiano is still 'waiting'--). Anand also has more experience in events of this sort, which means more solid chess, and prepares himself pretty well for games, too. Since I don't see Caruana (Round 10), nor Karjakin (Round 11) going all out for the win in their respective games against him (draw - draw), and since the last part of the tournament will apparently be easier for him (for Anand) than for his opponents (since he faces Nakamura, Giri and Svidler), I can see Anand winning the Candidates (main strategy for him now: solid, non-risky chess; let the opponents risk, since they are not good at it, and they have to if they wanna win the tournament).

On the other hand, the best chance I see for the others is to go out and win the event 'by themselves', that is, by playing to win at every single game without relying on the results others might get in their own individual games! There are just five rounds left, and the time for observing the moves of your opponent is over: you gotta act, NOW. Nobody is saying you have to play stupidly or recklessly: play your way, but with intent! Do not allow the game to slip from your hands, from your sight; impose your will!
toronto toronto 3/23/2016 02:59
One side story that I think hasn't been noted enough is how Topalov failed to spot some interesting f2/f7 sacs.
First, missing 20.-Bxf2! against Anand in round 1, later a possible 16.Nxf7!? against Karjakin. What a pity!
We fondly remember
14. Nxf7!! Topalov-Anand, MTEL 2005
12. Nfx7!! Topalov-Kramnik, Coris 2008
4.Nxf7 Topalov-Kramnik, Linares 1999

imdvb_8793 imdvb_8793 3/23/2016 01:48
Love the predictions! I, like many others, though I love Vishy and think he's one of the greatest ever, am very much rooting for anyone but him, because I want a match as interesting as possible. (The last two were immensely disappointing for me to watch.) I thought Aronian and Caruana would be the toughest opponents for Carlsen in a match, but, now that Aronian is pretty much out (since he's effectively one point behind and it's going to be incredibly hard for him to come back, psychologically, after being outplayed like that in such a crucial game, and win two more until the end, without losing any), and I don't think Anand will lose to Fabi right after such a big win in the previous round (though it could happen, if he's outprepared, which, of course, won't be easy to pull off), so Caruana's chances aren't looking that hot either (at least in my opinion), I'm definitely rooting for Sergey Houdini to get first place. I don't think his style is best suited to pose the maximum amount of problems for Magnus, but I definitely think he has solid chances, nonetheless, with his amazing fighting spirit. Most opponents just collapse under Carlsen's pressure (including, or perhaps especially, Anand), but Karjakin is unlikely to do that (much), based on what we've seen from him, especially in recent months. He definitely stands a much, much better chance than Vishy would.
quantentunnel quantentunnel 3/23/2016 01:17
maybe Peter Svidlers announced brain surgery will have impact, who knows ;-)