Fabiano Caruana shares his predictions on the World Cup

by André Schulz
11/7/2025 – In his C-Squared podcast on YouTube, Fabiano Caruana recently discussed the results of recent chess events and then shared his observations and analysis of the ongoing FIDE World Cup. Finally, he was tempted to make a prediction about the possible winner. After some consideration, he chose...
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"Faustino is really strong"

A cheerful Fabiano Caruana spoke about the Clutch Chess tournament in Saint Louis, the new Total Chess World Championship in Norway, and then shared his observations on the World Cup on his YouTube podcast C-Squared with Cristian Chirila.

"The World Cup is my favourite tournament", said Caruana, "both to watch and to play. There are an incredible number of games, exciting openings, close matches and lots of tiebreaks. But the first round is rarely interesting. Most matches are quite one-sided". However, there are exceptions. Caruana pointed to the success of 12-year-old Faustino Oro, who knocked out favourite Ante Brkic in round one after an exciting tiebreak battle.

"I can hardly remember such a young player competing in the World Cup, let alone surviving the first round. Brkic is, after all, a grandmaster who was around 2650 in his prime. It was a close match, but the boy showed what he can do", said Caruana.

In round two, Faustino Oro also held his own for a long time against the nominally much stronger Vidit: "Vidit is over 2700 Elo, an experienced player, has already been in the Candidates, won the Grand Swiss – a world-class player. It's impressive that Faustino can keep up with him", Caruana said. "Faustino is really strong – there's no doubt about that".

Wesley So's elimination came as a big surprise to Caruana: "It was really shocking, Wesley was playing a relatively unknown opponent, and everything was going well... until a single move. After that, the match was practically over. Wesley overlooked a tactical threat from his opponent and immediately lost material. And later, he resigned in a drawn position".

Another big surprise was the elimination of Ian Nepomniachtchi: "A huge mistake with the white pieces right from the opening. He forgot about the bishop on a6. Then he basically tried to stay in the game somehow, and Ghosh just took him apart. He played very well, exploited his advantage and eliminated him".

Caruana continued: "Nepo complained about the conditions afterwards. I've also heard from other participants that the hotel isn't in the best condition. I don't want to name names, but some reported that there are even bedbugs".

At the end of the conversation, Caruana was also persuaded to give his prediction for the possible winners of the World Cup. Caruana saw Levon Aronian as a possible winner because Aronian has already won the format twice. Then his secret tip was Peter Leko. But he then backtracked a little when he realised that Leko would soon face Arjun Erigaisi. Caruana also gave Richard Rapport a good chance, as Rapport is currently in good form.

Ultimately, however, Caruana named Vincent Keymer and Arjun Erigaisi as his top favourites. And in the end said: "I'm going to go with Vincent. He wants that Candidates spot. He just missed it at the Grand Swiss. I think he has a good case for deserving it".

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Topics: C-Squared Podcast, FIDE World Cup 2025
André Schulz started working for ChessBase in 1991 and is an editor of ChessBase News.