Who will win the Candidates Tournament? A prediction

by André Schulz
6/17/2022 – Today, the most important tournament of the year starts - the Candidates Tournament. The winner will challenge Magnus Carlsen for the World Championship and can become new World Champion. But who will win? We will know in three weeks but we still dare a prediction now, based on the games the eight candidates have recently played against each other. And the winner is...

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Who will win the Candidates?

Of course, you can't really predict the outcome of this tournament, and therefore our experiment is rather playful and should not be taken too seriously. But who knows? Maybe we are not that wrong. Based on the games the eight candidates have recently played against each other, we created a virtual Candidates Tournament with a possible result of the real Candidates Tournament.

For each of the encounters that will take place in the Candidates Tournament in Madrid, we took the two most recent games with reversed colours the candidates had played against each other.

If possible, we took the two most recent classical games. If there were no such games, which was rare, we took over-the-board rapid games, and if there were no such games, we took rapid games from online tournaments.

Ding Liren was already one of the favourites in the last Candidates Tournament 2020-21, but was particularly affected by the pandemic as he had to spend a long time in quarantine before the start of the Candidates 2020-21 in Ekaterinburg, and then didn't find his form when the tournament began.

But in Madrid Ding should be in form. After all, in the last months Ding has played several tournaments to reach the required number of 30 games which he needed to qualify as a replacement for Karjakin, who was suspended by the FIDE after supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a number of tweets.

Alireza Firouzja shot way up in the world rankings at the end of 2021. In the press conference of the Candidates Caruana said that he doesn't think that Firouzja, who will turn 19 on 18 June, is quite as strong as his rating indicates. After all, Firouzja is the youngest participant in the field and still somewhat inexperienced in such tournaments though he definitely has a lot of energy and is extremely motivated.

Caruana, on the other hand, is an extremely experienced player, who had already played in three Candidates Tournaments and has also played a World Championship match.

Ian Nepomniachtchi, too, has won a Candidates Tournament though the following World Championship match against Carlsen did not go particularly well. It will be seen whether and to what extent the best Russian player is and will be affected by current political events.

Hikaru Nakamura and Richard Rapport recommend themselves by winning and finishing second respectively in the Grand Prix tournaments.

Teimour Radjabov was also not very active before the pandemic. As a prelude to the Candidates Tournament he played in the Norway Chess Tournament, where he finished second to last, but of course did not show everything there.

Jan-Krzysztof Duda has not yet reached his zenith but the young Pole has shown that he can beat anyone.

And here is our prediction:

Rg. Tit. Name Country Elo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Pts.
1 GM Ding Liren
 
2806   ½½ ½1 ½½ ½½ 9.0
2 GM Fabiano Caruana
 
2783   ½½ ½½ ½½ ½1 8.0
3 GM Hikaru Nakamura
 
2760 ½½   ½½ ½½ 11 7.5
4 GM Teimour Radjabov
 
2738 ½0 ½½   ½½ ½1 ½1 7.5
5 GM Ian Nepomniachtchi
 
2766 ½½ ½½   ½1 ½½ 7.0
6 GM Alireza Firouzja
 
2793 ½½ ½½ ½½ ½0 ½0   11 6.5
7 GM Richard Rapport
 
2764 ½½ ½½ ½½   00 5.5
8 GM Jan Krzysztof Duda
 
2750 ½0 00 ½0 00 11   5.0

The Elo-ratings are based on the Live Chess Rating list.

As you can see, there is a high number of draws, but this can happen in a Candidates Tournament.

And here are the games on which our prediction is based:

 
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1.Nf3 d5 2.d4 Nf6 3.c4 e6 4.g3 Be7 5.Bg2 0-0 6.0-0 dxc4 7.Qc2 a6 8.a4 Nc6 9.Qxc4 Na5 10.Qc2 b6 11.Ne5 Bb7 12.Bxb7 Nxb7 13.Nc6 Qe8 14.Rd1 Bc5 15.Ne5 Bd6 16.Nc3 c5 17.Ne4 Nxe4 18.Qxe4 cxd4 19.Nc4 Nc5 20.Nxd6 Nxe4 21.Nxe8 Rfxe8 22.Rxd4 Nf6 23.Be3 Rec8 24.Rd6 Rc2 25.Rc1 Rxb2 26.Rxb6 Rxb6 27.Bxb6 h6 28.a5 Nd5 29.Rc6 Ne7 30.Rd6 Rc8 31.e4 Rc1+ 32.Kg2 Nc6 33.Kf3 Kf8 34.Ke2 ½–½
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Ding,L2811Firouzja,A2702½–½2019E05Kandidaten Prognose3.2
Firouzja,A2702Ding,L2811½–½2019E20Kandidaten Prognose3.1
Ding,L2805Caruana,F28421–02020D17Kandidaten Prognose3
Caruana,F2842Ding,L2805½–½2021C90Kandidaten Prognose10
Ding,L2805Nepomniachtchi,I27751–02019A20Kandidaten Prognose6
Nepomniachtchi,I2774Ding,L2805½–½2019C54Kandidaten Prognose6
Ding,L2809Rapport,R2726½–½2019E11Kandidaten Prognose1
Rapport,R2726Ding,L2809½–½2019C47Kandidaten Prognose6
Ding,L2805Nakamura,H2754½–½2019D27Kandidaten Prognose4
Nakamura,H2743Ding,L2805½–½2019C88Kandidaten Prognose4
Radjabov,T2758Ding,L2811½–½2019C89Kandidaten Prognose7.1
Ding,L2811Radjabov,T27581–02019A19Kandidaten Prognose7.2
Ding,L2804Duda,J27391–02018D24Kandidaten Prognose10.1
Duda,J2738Ding,L2813½–½2019C47Kandidaten Prognose13
Caruana,F2786Firouzja,A2702½–½2022D35Kandidaten Prognose1
Firouzja,A2702Caruana,F2823½–½2021C54Kandidaten Prognose11
Nepomniachtchi,I2792Firouzja,A2702½–½2021C78Kandidaten Prognose2
Firouzja,A2702Nepomniachtchi,I27730–12022C24Kandidaten Prognose2
Rapport,R2760Firouzja,A27021–02021D90Kandidaten Prognose4
Firouzja,A2702Rapport,R2776½–½2022B45Kandidaten Prognose4
Nakamura,H2736Firouzja,A2702½–½2021C67Kandidaten Prognose14
Firouzja,A2702Nakamura,H2736½–½2021C54Kandidaten Prognose10
Firouzja,A2702Radjabov,T2765½–½2021C67Kandidaten Prognose2
Radjabov,T2765Firouzja,A27021–02021D43Kandidaten Prognose3
Duda,J2757Firouzja,A27020–12020B19Kandidaten Prognose1
Firouzja,A2702Duda,J27431–02021D02Kandidaten Prognose7
Nepomniachtchi,I2774Caruana,F2842½–½2021C47Kandidaten Prognose11
Caruana,F2786Nepomniachtchi,I2773½–½2022C42Kandidaten Prognose6
Rapport,R2763Caruana,F2806½–½2021B44Kandidaten Prognose9
Caruana,F2786Rapport,R2776½–½2022B45Kandidaten Prognose8
Caruana,F2819Nakamura,H27541–02019D37Kandidaten Prognose1
Nakamura,H2743Caruana,F2818½–½2019C84Kandidaten Prognose1
Caruana,F2804Radjabov,T27261–02016B31Kandidaten Prognose5
Radjabov,T2765Caruana,F2820½–½2021D38Kandidaten Prognose1
Caruana,F2823Duda,J2743½–½2021C42Kandidaten Prognose3
Duda,J2760Caruana,F27920–12022D02Kandidaten Prognose7
Nepomniachtchi,I2792Rapport,R2760½–½2021D06Kandidaten Prognose5
Rapport,R2776Nepomniachtchi,I2773½–½2022E36Kandidaten Prognose9
Nepomniachtchi,I2742Nakamura,H27921–02017D37Kandidaten Prognose4
Nakamura,H2754Nepomniachtchi,I2775½–½2019D85Kandidaten Prognose5
Nepomniachtchi,I2763Radjabov,T2757½–½2019C67Kandidaten Prognose13
Radjabov,T2759Nepomniachtchi,I2775½–½2019B97Kandidaten Prognose5
Duda,J2748Nepomniachtchi,I27731–02019A29Kandidaten Prognose1.1
Nepomniachtchi,I2773Duda,J2748½–½2019B35Kandidaten Prognose1.2
Nakamura,H2736Rapport,R27631–02022D36Kandidaten Prognose1.1
Rapport,R2763Nakamura,H2736½–½2022A07Kandidaten Prognose1.2
Rapport,R2730Radjabov,T26960–12016A01Kandidaten Prognose7.2
Radjabov,T2759Rapport,R2735½–½2019E19Kandidaten Prognose3
Rapport,R2738Duda,J27310–12019B08Kandidaten Prognose1.2
Duda,J2760Rapport,R27631–02022D02Kandidaten Prognose1
Radjabov,T2759Nakamura,H2761½–½2019E05Kandidaten Prognose1.1
Nakamura,H2761Radjabov,T2759½–½2019E06Kandidaten Prognose1.2
Duda,J2724Nakamura,H27810–12018B76Kandidaten Prognose5
Nakamura,H2736Duda,J27531–02020B51Kandidaten Prognose10
Radjabov,T2757Duda,J2738½–½2019C24Kandidaten Prognose5
Duda,J2756Radjabov,T27630–12021B31Kandidaten Prognose4.4

But even when the winner is decided, there is still a big question: Will World Champion Magnus Carlsen defend his title or will he give up his title without playing another World Championship match? Should he do so, the top two finishers in the Candidates Tournament will play a match for the title.

Translation from German: Johannes Fischer

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André Schulz started working for ChessBase in 1991 and is an editor of ChessBase News.

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