Tata Steel R7: Dubov forfeits, Carlsen leads

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Books, boards, sets: Chess Niggemann

Carlos Alberto Colodro Carlos Colodro is a Hispanic Philologist from Bolivia. He works as a freelance translator and writer since 2012. A lot of his work is done in chess-related texts, as the game is one of his biggest interests, along with literature and music.

Discuss

Rules for reader comments

fgkdjlkag 1/27/2022 04:36

I think the cause of this sort of idiocy exhibited by Dubov, who is putting an opponent at risk (and even young, perfectly healthy persons are dying of covid), is a result of specialisation. Historically all chess-players had another profession, so it was not possible to be generally ignorant. But now chess-players are specialised, hence they can not have any domain expertise outside of chess. I believe chess960 would return general knowledge to chess-players, as it is no longer necessary to spend months every year (in total) memorising openings, which could be put to other productive use.

@azri, what are you talking about? heart attacks and alcohol are not contagious diseases, so obviously have to be treated differently. It's not possible to prohibit heart attacks either. Also the idea that natural immunity from infection is stronger than vaccination is false. It depends on the specific disease and vaccine.

The idea that we have to live with covid is false. There were well written articles at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 outlining the right approach, which is eradication. If it was originally eradicated, there would be no delta, no omicron, and none of the concerns with chronic lung disease and everything else that covid may cause. Lockdowns, masks, vaccines, social distancing, contact tracing are all very effective. The original covid took 10-15 minutes in close contact with someone else to cause transmission. Lockdowns before vaccines dramatically reduced numbers. The problem is that all countries and regions within countries were having lockdowns at different times, there was little contact tracing, international travel without proper testing, misallocation of resources, etc. Once vaccines came out, combined with other measures it should have been enough to end delta and covid. But there was no incentive for much of population to take them because they did not believe in them.

lajosarpad 1/27/2022 01:21

"Truth is like Einstein`s relativity theory. It depends on where, when and who says it."

No, it does not depend on who says it. A mentally challenged person may be right and a genious may be wrong. Or, do you claim that the truth value of the quote above depends on who says it? Also, there are absolutely true claims, like "the Earth is a globe" or "diseases are bad, pandemics are even worse". And Einstein's relativity theory does not depend on where and when. Some things depend on these variables, but not the theory itself.

@Jacob woge

"seems to have been turned upside down. To-day, if a vaccinated person meets an un-vaccinated one, the vaccinated person is prone to be the one claiming himself to be at risk. If not, others do it on his behalf. Reference to 7th round."

Everyone is at risk in times of a pandemic. It is just that the unvaccinated are underestimating the danger.

"I believe this take on reality is rather new, as is the idea of vaccinating, and even mandating vaccination of, people who have already been thru an infection. I don't know, perhaps in the military, but I wouldn't admit to living in a war camp. "

There are compulsory vaccines in Eastern Europe, for example. This is how polio has virtually disappeared. I know people who have been infected by COVID several times. They say that it was bad and they had post-COVID syndrome and their recovery was long and hard.

"You just don't stop a pandemic in a globalized world"

Maybe we can restrict the effects of globalization when a pandemic occurs.

lajosarpad 1/27/2022 01:20

@arzi "Really? It is like saying :" ... in my subjective and humble opinion she/he must be pedophile.""

No, because your fallacies can be read by anyone here, so we have the factual basis that led me to form that opinion. And, as I have explained earlier, I might be wrong. It is possible that you are honest and you just do not know how to form an argument properly.

"I can count only to three so it is possible I have missed some of your arguments."
Let me quote my third point, because it seems that you have missed that part when reading my comments:
"Third, when we discuss the problems related to an epidemic, you use another logical fallacy, a red herring (whataboutism, to be specific) when you point out other problems that you presumably consider to be more serious. Assuming that problem2 is more serious than problem1, even if that's true, it does not mean that problem1 should be ignored. "

"First one, mortality in relation to population, is about 0.3%. Second is about 0.04%. Yep, epidemic handling about 10 times better in Finland. Maybe there were too little information at hand about covid in USA? Who knows. "

So, people are dying of this disease, we can establish this fact. Epidemic handling is unnecessary if the epidemic is not a serious problem. So, do we agree that COVID is a serious problem? Do we agree that epidemic handling is necessary? Do we agree that we, the people should protect ourselves and others? Do we agree that Dubov should have been wearing that mask in that round?

lajosarpad 1/27/2022 01:19

@arzi "Do you think, this sentence "my subjective opinion" entitles you to call me dishonest?"

Since we do not live in a communist dictatorship, we can express our views. I'm openly stating that I do not trust your honesty and I'm openly stating that it's my subjective view, which contains some assumptions. If you want to prove that you are honest, then you will represent your position with far less fallacies. If you do not care about what I think subjectively about your honesty, then you can accept the fact that I disbelief in its presence. And speaking with me as if I ever claimed that I know more about Finland than you is a final proof of your dishonesty in my view. So you have those two possible choices.

"Why are you saying, falsely, that I`m ignoring your writings /events?"

I was not saying that you are ignoring "my" writings / events. I was saying that you focused on Finland, but not on the USA. Finland's data somewhat supports your narrative, because the country was not hit very hard by the epidemic. The USA's data totally disproves your narrative. It is fallacious to discuss a problem by focusing solely on the regions where it is not manifesting. It is possible that you just do not know how to properly argue in a debate. Since I cannot exclude that and I subjectively think that you could do better and choose not to, my opinion is that you are being dishonest. It is true that you have addressed the USA since my remarks, but you started to speak about its healthcare problems, rather than the fact that almost 900 000 people died there due to the disease. So even when you mention the USA, you start to argue based on your leftist views about poor people. But it's irrelevant to the topic, because almost 900 000 people died there. So the disease is dangerous. Was 9/11 dangerous? Yes. It killed 3 000+ people. COVID killed almost 3 000 * the number of people killed by 9/11.

lajosarpad 1/27/2022 01:18

@arzi "Maybe the poor people in USA have not the same benefits as wealthier people?"

I expected that sooner or later you will arrive to social justice in your arguments. I would just point to the fact that in the USA almost 900 000 people died due to the disease so far. In Poland 262 people died today due to the disease.

"I still have to ask you if you have any statistics of any other deaths in Netherlands. Something like I wrote about below - "Statistics Finland". Then you can comapre those figures with each other. "

The whole incident is COVID-related. So, while the off-topics you bring up may be interesting in the general sense, they are completely irrelevant to our topic, unless YOU show us how the whatever death cause YOU bring up is relevant. The number of COVID-related casualties will not be decreased even if there are death causes of higher impact factor in the Netherlands. There is no need to be a telepath in order to understand my point. You just need the ability to read attentively, which I assume is not a problem on a chess forum.

lajosarpad 1/27/2022 01:17

@arzi "Let`s not talk about bacterial infections and , shall we? "

Why not? Do you mean that if we had a bacterial pandemic, then you would be more responsible?

"It is dangerous ONLY for the risk group."

By "dangerous" I mean that it may have severe short-term or long-term consequences. Saying that it's not dangerous for those who are not of the risk group, as you claim, essentially means that does not have the potential of having severe short-term NOR long-term consequences. Can you cite the scientific paper which says that it was proven that omicron DOES NOT CAUSE CANCER long-term?

"Why don`t you take statistics for the other epidemics, famines or wars?"

Classical whataboutism. There were worse epidemics and there are worse problems, I have never claimed otherwise. But we are speaking about this one.

Malaria is a disease caused by a parasite. Earlier you have said we should not speak about bacterial infections. Now, all of a sudden it is okay to speak about parasite-caused diseases? Why are you shifting your goalposts?

A dangerous disease is a disease which can cause you severe consequences, like death, paralysis, etc. without medical care. If COVID was not a dangerous disease, then the level of healthcare would be irrelevant, because people would not even need to go to the hospital.

lajosarpad 1/27/2022 01:16

arzi "Why, because it is much faster way to have antibodies to all people than trying to vaccinate everybody to have those same antibodies. You just vaccinate the risk groups."

If people on average would show more wisdom, then they would vaccinate. There are enough vaccines. It is way better to never get the disease in the first place than to risk its short-term and long-term consequences, while risking others around you. You say that omicron is no very dangerous. Oh, really? What do you know about its long-term effects? Some cancers are caused by viruses. So, letting all healthy people getting the disease might have long-term risks, like the possibility of cancer. So, someone catches the disease, let's suppoes that he/or she quickly recovers. And then catches cancer after 3 years and dies. How can you ignore this possibility? You are actually arguing for letting the disease spread, because - you think that - it's not dangerous. You can lose the sense of smell even due to omicron. How can you advocate that people should risk that? Even if there is no health risk for the healthy, as you claim?! Catching the disease on purpose (a phenomenon you advocate on the level of the society, not the individual) is a bad idea.

"I did not and I am not going to get every year the new vaccination for the new covid version. You can have it. "

You are free to do so. But even if you avoid vaccination, how in the name of common sense can you advocate the same for others? If you are a free rider, whose safety is helped by the vaccination of others, then your interest is that those around you will get vaccinated.

lajosarpad 1/27/2022 01:16

@arzi "If you have a very infectious but mild disease then it is ok to have this illness to spread fast to whole society."

You earlier stated that it's not dangerous to healthy people. So, even according to you it is dangerous to many. So, in the above your statement essentially means that omicron is okay to spread, because only the endangered people would die. Also, evolution is not a linear model. Omicron is a variant, but other variants also exist. The Delta variant has not disappeared. It is outcompeted by the more infectuous omicron variant. So, while the delta variant still exists, the omicron is more frequent. So, what if we let the disease spread? Maybe the omicron or the delta or another variant will mutate into a highly infectuous and highly lethal new variant.

lajosarpad 1/27/2022 01:15

@arzi I'm getting used to the fact that you are misrepresenting my points with cheap tricks. I did not claim that I know more about Finland than you. My point was that Finland was not hit hard by this epidemic. I pointed out that some countries were less fortunate, the U.S.A. has lost almost 900 000 people due to the illness and objectively seeing the numbers, Finland's number of casualties increased. I have also pointed out that you cherry pick countries where the situation did not go very bad, e.g. Finland, whereas globally we find much worse examples. When we discuss the problems of a health crisis, it is fallacious and dishonest to focus on the places where the situation did not go bad. Maybe you will come up with the example of the South Pole the next time where the number of infected with COVID is 0 (so far). COVID has claimed 5,647,243 deaths so far. It is dangerous.

"NOT DANGEROUS to normally healthy man, woman or child."

That's a shortsighted and egoistic point of view. Shortsighted, because you do not see that a highly infectuous disease can become extremely dangerous any time, even if it is less dangerous in a point of time and shortsighted, because healthy people were killed in many cases, especially by the delta variant. And it is egoistic, because, assuming (maybe wrongly) that it's not dangerous for healthy people, you advocate letting the disease spreading through the whole of society, which will inevitably lead in the death of many of the endangered, even if your assumption is correct. Advocating to let the disease spread and infect everyone is immoral, irresponsible and idiotic.

For me an increased number of casualties is bad. Period.

arzi 1/27/2022 08:01

Well written, Jacob woge.

Truth is like Einstein`s relativity theory. It depends on where, when and who says it. It is like watching the world through different colored filter glasses. Someone sees the world and the other people as red images. The other one in turn sees as blue images. The third one sees only in black and white, like chessboard with the pieces. They all think that his/her perspective is the only truth. E.T from deep space haven`t got any filters and tries to explain for those three pieces of game that you are all both right and wrong. "Go back home, E.T. Don´t try to teach us. We are using WYSIWYG -technology in our devices. What you see is what you get. We know better than you."
Truth and only truth, nothing more and nothing less. Like white horse against black bishop. Which one is better depends on the situation of the game. Game over.

It has been a fun conversation. Let`s do it again in somewhere else topic, like disrespecful Dubov, dishonesty and my subjective opinion ...

Jacob woge 1/27/2022 01:53

A comment on other virus infections mentioned here.

Polio had a massive death or cripple rate for those infected, orders of magnitude above covid. Different from covid this infection was (and is) to be avoided by all. Also, kids were particularly at risk.

The first vaccine, U.S. mid-1950'ies, using live virus, turned out to infect and damage the recipients. The scandal implicated some ~100,000 volunteering individuals who thought they had won in the lottery - no mandates, but a rush. The lawsuits were massive.

Escape strains from early polio vaccines still exist today.

__

The Spanish Flu had a death toll of ~17 million, which would correspond to ~50 million today, given the population increase. Covid stands at present an order of magnitude lower. Even more so, if you take into account the difference in age profile: SF was fatal for the young (<40), Covid is for the (very) elderly.

Based on the number of living years lost (I would argue it makes a difference both to yourself and to those close to you if you kick the bucket at eight, eighteen or eighty), SF was an estimated 100 times more severe than covid, at present.

This is not reflected in the measures currently taken, which I think are quite a bit less lenient than a hundred years ago. You did see local lockdowns at the time, but THBOMN not nation-wide. And it turned out that at the end of the day, the death toll in open and closed societies were about the same. Taking severe measures just meant, you spread it out over time.

You just don't stop a pandemic in a globalized world - as it also was in the wake of WWI. Today, globalization in the full is back, with "society" closing in on 8 billion souls, and much of the "doing something" is a mirage. There is plenty of mutation space around the globe, and eventually nobody can count on escaping. Island states may try to isolate, but chances are this will turn out to be merely postponement.

Jacob woge 1/27/2022 12:43

As for the U.S. of A. question marks below - I have got a nasty feeling that the country's high rate of obesity might have something to do with the pandemic's severity. Americans are getting bigger, and death due to covid is proven to be related to BMI.

Is the present Wijk aan Zee contingency the slimmest ever?

Jacob woge 1/27/2022 12:37

"We are getting a bit far from what should be on a chess forum."

That is true. Godwin's Second Law.

This issue plays a significant rôle in a number of sports as well. Tennis springs to mind. The European hardball Ch. has largely been transformed into a competition of which team is better at keeping infection out of its locker room. But there, in a sport with a lot of sweaty close encounters, you have to test positive yourself in order to be banned. Negative, you can play, no matter who you've been close up with.

Will countries only recently having cast off the yoke of dictatorship have a tendency to be more careful retaining about civil rights than countries that take them for granted? It seems that in Europe, the idea of mandates, or of pursuing a politic amounting to the same thing, is a fixation west of the iron curtain.

One odd thing with the present incident is that the classical view on virus infections:

- vaccinated : your health is not at risk
- not vaccinated : your health is at risk

seems to have been turned upside down. To-day, if a vaccinated person meets an un-vaccinated one, the vaccinated person is prone to be the one claiming himself to be at risk. If not, others do it on his behalf. Reference to 7th round.

I believe this take on reality is rather new, as is the idea of vaccinating, and even mandating vaccination of, people who have already been thru an infection. I don't know, perhaps in the military, but I wouldn't admit to living in a war camp.

Still, the control aspect of that particular modus operandi is at least as present as the medical aspect, as I see it. Politics enters, common sense leaves.

arzi 1/26/2022 03:35

"lajosarpad:"In the USA so far 894,880 people have died due to COVID ... Finland has lost 1894 persons so far due to COVID."

First one, mortality in relation to population, is about 0.3%. Second is about 0.04%. Yep, epidemic handling about 10 times better in Finland. Maybe there were too little information at hand about covid in USA? Who knows.

arzi 1/26/2022 03:14

Lajosarpad:"Fourth, you take the example of Finland, which was not hit very hard by the epidemic compared to other countries, which is the Texas sharpshooter fallacy and cherry picking at the same time, using a part of the pattern that supports your narrative, while ignoring more relevant parts of the pattern."

I can count only to three so it is possible I have missed some of your arguments. I guess it's just about knowing how to act at the right time? Maybe Texas has too many sharpshooters and less thinkers? The kingdom of freedom without kings and queens. That is good old USA, the best of the best.

arzi 1/26/2022 02:54

lajosarpad:"In the USA so far 894,880 people have died due to COVID. But you ignore that example, for reasons I do not care about and bring us a country which was not hit that hard. If there is any country whose statistics is specifically interesting here, it is the Netherlands, where the incident happened. Netherlands lost 21227 citizens due to COVID so far. But you ignore even that. What do you want to achieve with this dishonest (my subjective opinion) way of arguing?"

Maybe the big and beautiful USA is not so big and beautiful in health care? Maybe all people in USA does not have a good health care? Maybe the poor people in USA have not the same benefits as wealthier people? I do not know, you tell me. Maybe the authorities of the health care In USA do not know which people belong to risk group? They have not that information? I do not know, maybe you tell me?

I still have to ask you if you have any statistics of any other deaths in Netherlands. Something like I wrote about below - "Statistics Finland". Then you can comapre those figures with each other.

Why are you saying, falsely, that I`m ignoring your writings /events? What writings/events you have told me before? Sorry, I`m not telepath and it is possible that I have missed some of your writings but do you really blame me: "dishonest (my subjective opinion) way of arguing?" Do you think, this sentence "my subjective opinion" entitles you to call me dishonest? Really? It is like saying :" ... in my subjective and humble opinion she/he must be pedophile." Nice, a great way to handle writing. Thanks.

arzi 1/26/2022 02:14

Lajosarpad"Just to make sure that we know the magnitude of the problem: in total 5 636 081 people have died due to the disease. An epidemic is a serious problem and irresponsible ideas, such as yours are making it worse."

Why don`t you take statistics for the other epidemics, famines or wars? They have been here for decades. Influenza, Hiv, Aids, HPV -virus. Let`s not forget malaria, hepatitis,...

Covid is still a risk group disease. If you have a poor state with a lot of people it is quite natural that there are also bigger risk groups. Famine and other diseases are making those risk groups bigger. Then it is not just a question about age but also your basic health before covid infection is hitting.

arzi 1/26/2022 01:51

lajosarpad: "This is not how things work. If there ... everyone."

If you have a very infectious but mild disease then it is ok to have this illness to spread fast to whole society. Why, because it is much faster way to have antibodies to all people than trying to vaccinate everybody to have those same antibodies. You just vaccinate the risk groups.

Lajosarpad: " Also, if you allow COVID ... the disease spreading rapidly and hoping for the best."

Mutations are everywhere. With human it takes time but with virus it is very fast happening. You cannot prevent mutations. It is a part of life. Now there are new vaccinations (for omikron) that are different from the original vaccinations. What then? New vaccination for another new variation? Hoping best? Did somebody believe that the original vaccination was enough for covid? I did not and I am not going to get every year the new vaccination for the new covid version. You can have it.

Lajosarpad: "That is what happened with the plague ... because the survivors became immune long-term."

Let`s not talk about bacterial infections and , shall we? The spanish flu is the good example. I would have taken that vaccination. Why? Because that infection was the real deal. It was dangerous, actually very dangerous, also other groups, especially for young people who had the strong immunity. The spanish flu used the the patient's own immunity against himself/herself. Covid is not the same kind of illness. It is dangerous ONLY for the risk group.

arzi 1/26/2022 01:10

lajosarpad: "By now, according to worldometers, Finland has lost 1894 persons so far due to COVID, which proves that the situation has worsened in Finland"

You do not see the forest because of those little trees are blocking your view. It is funny how you think to know more about Finland than me who is living there. Before the covid hysteria (in 2020) began there were about 2000 deaths in Finland because of the seasonal flu, every year. That seasonal flu was dangerous for all groups, not just for the risk groups. Now in 2021 and 2022 there are no records of those seasonal fludeaths. Where has seasonal flu gone? Every media, every day and everywhere writes only covid this and covid that. You do not see about covid incident that is NOT dangerous. All those news shows pictures about people lying in bed with hoses in the nose and saying "I should have taken that vaccination". Those news do not tell that those same persons lying in bed with hoses in the nose actually belonged on risk group. Why? Because people would have gotten the "wrong picture" of the situation. Wrong picture means in this sentence NOT DANGEROUS to normally healthy man, woman or child.

Omikron has increased infections In Finland at least or over tenfold compared to delta variation but at same time patient beds, intensive care unit beds, and deaths have not increased as well. They are almost the same. What does it say to you? I guess nothing but to me it says that situation has not worsened but gotten better. Below 2000 covid deaths between 2019-2022 compared seasonal fludeaths, average 2000 every year, before year 2019. What do you think of that? Do you see the forest or those little trees?

lajosarpad 1/26/2022 12:17

@arzi

"Maybe we should lock ourselves home because "something" may happen? Maybe I should not go out because the car may drive over me or lightning strikes me? Maybe this omikron is the savior? Maybe."

Yes and no. If someone is endangered, then locking himself/herself home is a good way to prevent him/her from getting sick. My grandmother did not listen to us, she absolutely ignored all warnings and has gone to the temple. For her, religious life was more important than her safety. She contracted the disease and died. Yes, she had a bunch of diseases and was of advanced age. But, if people would be more careful in order to protect the elderly, then life would be safer for them. I do not advocate irrational fear. But I advocate precaution. I advocate that people should not listen to bad ideas, such as not getting vaccinated, not wearing a mask and so on.

Just to make sure that we know the magnitude of the problem: in total 5 636 081 people have died due to the disease. An epidemic is a serious problem and irresponsible ideas, such as yours are making it worse.

lajosarpad 1/26/2022 12:17

@arzi

In the case of the plague, no, it reappeared every 20 years accross medieval times. How did they eventually get rid of the disease? By burning everything that was infected, sanitation, the use of a toilet and getting rid of rats as much as possible. So, in one of the cases the disease disappeared automatically. In the other, severe anti-plague measures were needed. What is the case of COVID? I don't know. And YOU don't know. So it is irresponsible to bet with the lives of the weak and the elderly on a situation without protection. I disagree with totalitarian measures, but I would like people to act like adults and to protect themselves and others. In the Netherlands the law do not allow the situation of a chess game being played while someone being potentially infected, even when wearing a mask. So the organizers were lenient with Dubov, they could have just applied Dutch laws. Instead, they risked being harrassed by the authorities for being lenient with Dubov in order to have the tournament as close to normal as possible. Dubov was ungrateful and his reaction was scandalous.

lajosarpad 1/26/2022 12:16

@arzi

"Longer you try to prevent the spreading the longer time the virus has to mutate."

This is not how things work. If there is a lower amount of diseased people in a society, then all possible mutations will have less impact than if they have the chance of infecting everyone. Also, if you allow COVID to thrive, which seems to be your idea, correct me if I misunderstood you, then vaccination will be practically impossible because of parallelly developed different mutations at the same time. We want people to avoid the infection. Your idea seems to consist of letting the disease spreading rapidly and hoping for the best. That is what happened with the plague (it is a bacterial infection to be precise) and the Spanish flu (maybe that's virus-based, I'm not sure). What happened? Lots of people less resistant to the disease died quickly. Did the disease disappear? In the case of the Spanish flu yes, probably because the survivors became immune long-term.

lajosarpad 1/26/2022 12:15

@arzi

"Do you think that getting vaccination is any different than getting sick and that way have a resistant body against the covid?"

No. Getting sick and recovering is a reliable way of getting protection from the disease for the foreseable future. But it is extremely stupid to knowingly choose the infection, its risks on yourself and its risks on those around you in order to get protection against the disease. If you get vaccinated, then you get a protection to a degree without getting the disease. You may still get infected, but the probability of getting infected at all while being vaccinated is significantly lower than getting the disease while not being vaccinated. Experts also claim that if you are vaccinated and you still get the disease, then there is a high chance that the disease will be far milder than without the vaccine. Are you against vaccinational defense against COVID? If so, what are your arguments against the vaccines? Are all COVID vaccines bad in your opinion, some of them or none?

lajosarpad 1/26/2022 12:14

@arzi

In the USA so far 894,880 people have died due to COVID. But you ignore that example, for reasons I do not care about and bring us a country which was not hit that hard. If there is any country whose statistics is specifically interesting here, it is the Netherlands, where the incident happened. Netherlands lost 21227 citizens due to COVID so far. But you ignore even that. What do you want to achieve with this dishonest (my subjective opinion) way of arguing? Should we ignore the disease? I have heard of totally healthy people dying from the disease. They represent a minority of the casualties and you are right when you point out that mostly the elderly and the sick are endangered. But don't we, healthy people have a responsibility in protecting them? I consider it highly unprobable that I would die from this infection. But 1. I cannot exclude 100% that from happening and 2. I want to protect the elderly and sick people around me by avoiding their infection. The best approach to that is not to get infected in the first place.

lajosarpad 1/26/2022 12:13

@arzi

You are operating with logical fallacies in this discussions. First, my point was that we should protect ourselves and others as much as we can from the disease, so I did not claim that COVID is the most frequent cause of death, so that's a strawman argument fallacy. Second, the fact that I recommend prudency in relation with COVID does not mean that I do not recommend prudency in other domains, such as alcohol consumption or car driving, which is another dishonest fallacy on your part, this is another little strawman. Third, when we discuss the problems related to an epidemic, you use another logical fallacy, a red herring (whataboutism, to be specific) when you point out other problems that you presumably consider to be more serious. Assuming that problem2 is more serious than problem1, even if that's true, it does not mean that problem1 should be ignored. Fourth, you take the example of Finland, which was not hit very hard by the epidemic compared to other countries, which is the Texas sharpshooter fallacy and cherry picking at the same time, using a part of the pattern that supports your narrative, while ignoring more relevant parts of the pattern. By now, according to worldometers, Finland has lost 1894 persons so far due to COVID, which proves that the situation has worsened in Finland.

arzi 1/25/2022 01:03

Frits: "arzi,
Even if you are one of the people trained to make risk assessments; amongst them, you are still in a minority group, given the measures still in force. So why would I believe you?"

This is not a religous and I am not the God. So don`t worry be happy.

arzi 1/25/2022 12:48

Frits:"And what did the medical experts advise and what measures did the Finnish government take? And what are they doing now?"

Actually medical experts and the Finnish government have tried to prevent the spreading many different way, also with the omikron. They tried that with the "covid passport" (certification paper) forexamble but then they noticed that the virus was still spreading fast even though all those unvaccinated people could not go to pubs, restaurants, sporting events. So they closed the pubs for all. Nice.

arzi 1/25/2022 12:19

lajosarpad:"Such genetic mutations can transform the virus into something totally different. So, if 50% of the population gets vaccinated because of their lower risk to the current version of the disease, then, assuming that they get the disease, they will create an opportunity for the virus to mutate into something different, maybe dangerous version. "

Do you think that getting vaccination is any different than getting sick and that way have a resistant body against the covid? Actually you are more resistant against the disease when you get those antibodies through illness. If the disease is very infectious and mild (like omikron) it will spread quickly to all people. Longer you try to prevent the spreading the longer time the virus has to mutate. You cannot prevent that. All you have done is a waste of time, closure of society for nothing.

"We do not know whether the "less dangerous" omikron can cause severe problems, like cancer on the long run."

Maybe we should lock ourselves home because "something" may happen? Maybe I should not go out because the car may drive over me or lightning strikes me? Maybe this omikron is the savior? Maybe.

Frits Fritschy 1/25/2022 12:15

And what did the medical experts advise and what measures did the Finnish government take? And what are they doing now?
My main point stays: what is more reliable for a non-specialist as me, the point of view of the majority of experts, or the opinions of people on a forum?

arzi 1/25/2022 11:53

Some statistics from Finland 2020. You must remember also that there was no vaccination on that time to covid.

-According to Statistics Finland, a total of 55,500 people died in Finland in 2020. However, the total mortality in relation to the population and age structure did not increase from the previous year.
-A total of 558 people died from covidvirus disease in 2020
-Deaths in coronary heart disease were mostly elderly: the median age was 84 years.
-The highest number of deaths was still caused by circulatory diseases, tumors and memory disorders, 42,000.
-In 2020, approximately 1,700 people died from alcohol-related diseases and alcohol poisoning.
-In 2020, a total of 2,200 people died in accidents.
-The number of deaths from drugs increased from the previous year, 258.
-In 2020, 717 suicides were committed.

A little different perspective. Should the authorities prohibit cars, alcohol and heart attacks?

lajosarpad 1/25/2022 11:31

Omikron is spreading more quickly and has less severe symptoms, endangering those who are of advanced age or some illness. However, evolution happens as we speak. What happens if a virus is spreading quickly? Each sick human being (and even animals) have millions of individual virus entities inside his/her body. Such a population always has the potential of changing via genetic mutation. Such genetic mutations can transform the virus into something totally different. So, if 50% of the population gets vaccinated because of their lower risk to the current version of the disease, then, assuming that they get the disease, they will create an opportunity for the virus to mutate into something different, maybe dangerous version. That future version might be mildly dangerous, like omikron, or severely dangerous. I think that the best we can do both for the endangered people and to ourselves (even if we are young and healthy) is to minimalize as much as we can the chance that we get the disease and of the chance of us transmitting it to others, maybe leading to some severe illnesses or worse. COVID is new. We do not know whether the "less dangerous" omikron can cause severe problems, like cancer on the long run. The best we can do is to accept the fact that there is an epidemic and do our best to protect ourselves and others from it. Less contact with people, wearing masks, vaccination are possible measures. But the intention of sitting down and play a long chess game while being possibly infected (contacted someone who is infected) without taking any protective measures is irresponsible and immoral. I think that everyone should be able to decide what gets into their body, including Giri. Should he be forced to play with someone who is possibly ill and not even wearing a mask? I don't think so. The organizers were lenient with Dubov.

Frits Fritschy 1/25/2022 11:25

arzi,
Even if you are one of the people trained to make risk assessments; amongst them, you are still in a minority group, given the measures still in force. So why would I believe you?

arzi 1/25/2022 11:07

Leavenfish:"Jacob woge - those things are not deadly/communicable. Also, 'higher risk groups' are not the only ones who can get it, spread it and even die...they are just more likely to. I know, I have an aunt who died."

Yes, maybe your aunt belonged to the risk group? Everybody can die even on common flu but the statistics tell that the greatest death amount in covid patients are the people who belong to risk group.

Jacob and Frits: If the disesase threatens the entire population with very severe sickness, maybe death, then I would understand the mandatory vaccination but this is not the case with covid/omikron. It is only death serious for the risk group. All you need to do is to vaccinate the risk group, not the whole nation. Is the next mandatory vaccination about common flu or cold in the head? Those can also be death serious to a certain risk group.

Frits Fritschy 1/25/2022 10:21

Jacob,
We are getting a bit far from what should be on a chess forum. But I will remind you that vaccination against poliolmyelitis was mandatory on pain of a penalty in the Netherlands in the late 1950's, and in other countries as well, as far as I know. Mandatory vaccination is not something new. On the other hand, vaccination against the humane papillomavirus (cervical cancer) was just advised. Meaning: whether vaccination is to be made mandatory or not is a politcal decision, based on risk assessments by people who are trained to make them, not based on the will to 'control people'. So professionals give an advice, and politicians take a decision, taking into consideration other than medical factors. I wouldn't know a better way to do it.

Jacob woge 1/25/2022 09:25

Pick another transmittable disease then. The common flu. Lethal to some.

The (ignored) question was, where does compulsory vaccination stop. Once the lid is off, you will never get it back on again. Already, annual booster is on the cards. For how long? The last reported case of the spanish flu was in the early 1950’ies, if I remember correctly.

I regard the proponents for vaccine mandates as every bit as radical as anti-vax’ers berating others for being vaccinated.

It’s a freedom of choice, and the limits of that does IMNSHO not come with covid in its 2019 form. All due respect for us elderlies, but simply reverse the age profile, then we can discuss.

arzi 1/25/2022 08:41

Leavenfish:@Jacob Woge - I'm NOT going to get cervical cancer sitting across the table playing a game for hours while inhaling your breath. Full stop. End of debate."

There are thousands, maybe millions, of better ways to get a cervical cancer than sitting across the table playing a game for hours while inhaling your breath.

Leavenfish 1/25/2022 01:15

@Jacob Woge - I'm NOT going to get cervical cancer sitting across the table playing a game for hours while inhaling your breath. Full stop. End of debate.

Jacob woge 1/24/2022 08:47

“those things are not deadly/communicable”

No? Then why is vaccination vs. Cervical cancer, which can definitely be lethal, recommended - for boys? The answer : due to the risk of asymptomatically transmitting a virus instrumental for spreading the disease. Not so different from the present concern, in that respect.

Is, for instance, this enough to enforce vaccination of all males against this particular disease? Females, goes without saying. After all, it’s not really their body, is it.

I would still like to know, where does it stop - if anywhere? Is any disease, for which a vaccine exists, exempted from being “compulsory unless you volunteer”? Consider the below:

“I would expect Dubov to wear a mask even if he caught an old-fashioned, not dangerous cold. ”

The severity plays absolutely no role. Masks it is then, from now on into oblivion. Because you never know.

Unless we have a vaccine ... in which case there are other methods.

Many of which, like the suggested one, have a totalitarian streak. To stay with us, long after the disease has gone.

I would be suggest to be very careful using that particular instrument.

Frits Fritschy 1/24/2022 06:22

Just had a positif test. Well, that's what you get visiting forums like this...

Leavenfish 1/24/2022 05:48

@Jacob woge - those things are not deadly/communicable. Also, 'higher risk groups' are not the only ones who can get it, spread it and even die...they are just more likely to. I know, I have an aunt who died.