Miguel Illescas previews Carlsen vs. Caruana

by Miguel Illescas Córdoba
10/15/2018 – We are only weeks away from the start of the World Championship in London, where Magnus Carlsen meets his latest challenger, the American Fabiano Caruana, and the fans wait impatiently for this impending train collision. It's a match which a priori promises great emotions and high-quality games because we will witness the indisputable numbers 1 and 2 of the world ranking. Grandmaster Miguel Illescas reflects on AlphaZero and wonders if secret preparation tools could make the difference. | Photo: Peón de Rey
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Equality of forces

In the next issue of Peon de Rey (to be released November 1st) I will examine the possibilities that I believe each one of the contenders has. For this, I took the time to analyse exhaustively the games in which they have faced each other, but not only the result — which favours Carlsen in classical mode 57% -43% — but also the moves.

An advance on the conclusions: it seems that, within the margins of a prevailing equality, Magnus has the initiative, but there is a factor that could alter that scenario.

Preparation, men and machines

From my experience as coach and right arm of Vladimir Kramnik in the three World Championship matches in which Volodya [a nickname for Vladimir -Ed.]  triumphed (London 2000 against Kasparov, Brissago 2004 against Leko and Elista 2006 against Topalov), I know that the preparation before the match plays a decisive role in the outcome. Kramnik surrounded himself with a complete team, not only of grandmasters, but of other specialists. It is well known that for the London match we had a physiotherapist and a cook, as well as a bodyguard that Kramnik insisted on hiring in the middle of the match! And of course, we also had a complete computer park, because its importance then was already very large.

There is no doubt that the role of machines in chess preparation has increased since then. Now the databases are larger and the programs stronger, both for their strategic understanding and the speed of calculation of modern processors. Therefore, it is natural that a fundamental element in the team of the protagonists of the next match in London has to be the technological one. They need to have powerful hardware and an expert team who knows how to get the most out of it.

AlphaZero and American patriotism

What will be the program or programs that Carlsen and Fabiano will use in their preparation? And which computers? Simple laptops or more powerful machines? In the next issue of Peon de Rey we develop some hypotheses, but one of the questions that floats in the air, and that we raised in the magazine last January is the following: could Google allow Caruana to have the help of ALPHAZERO? There are few nations with as high a patriotic sense as the United States of America, and after all, Google is an American company, and the world chess title an iconic prize.

For those who do not know who or what ALPHAZERO is, I am pleased to share the article I signed at number 132 of Peon de Rey, and that ends with the following reflection: "If any elite player had access to the 1,300 games played by ALPHAZERO or the complete statistics of the 44 million games of training, it would have a huge competitive advantage compared to his colleagues. Everything is in the hands of Google".

AlphaZero games to replay and download

 
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1.Nf3 Nf6 2.d4 e6 3.c4 b6 4.g3 Bb7 5.Bg2 Be7 6.0-0 0-0 7.d5 exd5 8.Nh4 c6 9.cxd5 Nxd5 10.Nf5 Nc7 11.e4 d5
12.exd5!? It could be an important novelty in a position where everybody plays 12.Nc3 or Re1 Nxd5 13.Nc3 Nxc3?! With more time for thinking, engines prefer 13...Bf6 which trasposes a very well known variation 14.Qg4! g6 15.Nh6+ Kg7 16.bxc3 Bc8 17.Qf4 Qd6 18.Qa4 White Queen moves are very subtle in this game and would require complex explanations to make them understandable to most readers. Now follows a bold movement of the black pieces, with objective of driving back the oponent's knight. But AZ will play without respite and will reply by sacrifizing a piece similar to Mikhail Tal's style, a long-term strategy only seen in human play until now. g5 19.Re1‼ Kxh6 20.h4! Note that, from now on, some engines, like Komodo, see the white advantage after a reasonable amount of time, which is not the case for Stockfish which considers the position as balanced. f6 21.Be3 Bf5 22.Rad1 Qa3 23.Qc4 b5 24.hxg5+ fxg5 25.Qh4+ Kg6 26.Qh1! This manoeuvre is the one that drew Paco Vallejo's attention. White's pieces keep playing calmly in spite of having one piece less, and will reject, one after the other, the possibility of playing for a draw. Kg7 27.Be4 Bg6 28.Bxg6 hxg6 29.Qh3 Bf6 30.Kg2 Qxa2 31.Rh1 Qg8 Black's pieces defend themselves tenaciously, and enjoy a big material advantage, with one knight and two pawns more. But, any GM will say that the black pieces are bound to lose, hence they have one rook less and a very exposed king. AZ's next move is from another world, but easy to explain. It is about limiting the activity of the black queen through the diagonal g8-a2 and opening even more attacking lines against the opposing king. 32.c4‼ Re8 If ... 32...bxc4 follows 33.f4! and the attack of the white pieces is decisive. 33.Bd4 Bxd4 34.Rxd4 Rd8 35.Rxd8 Qxd8 36.Qe6! Nobody said that the victory woud be easy. White pieces keep dominating the game while keeping the black king under siege. Confronted by the deadly check on e5, SF has no other option than to give pieces back. Nd7 37.Rd1 Nc5 38.Rxd8 Nxe6 39.Rxa8 Kf6 40.cxb5 cxb5 And the victory of the white pieces is a matter of (good) technique. 41.Kf3! Nd4+ 42.Ke4 Nc6 43.Rc8 Ne7 44.Rb8 Nf5 45.g4 Nh6 46.f3 Nf7 47.Ra8 Nd6+ 48.Kd5 Nc4 49.Rxa7 Ne3+ 50.Ke4 Nc4 51.Ra6+ Kg7 52.Rc6 Kf7 53.Rc5 Ke6 54.Rxg5 Kf6 55.Rc5 g5 56.Kd4 1–0
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
AlphaZero-Stockfish 8-1–02017E17AlphaZero vs. Stockfish
AlphaZero-Stockfish 8-1–02017E15AlphaZero vs. Stockfish
AlphaZero-Stockfish 8-1–02017E17AlphaZero vs. Stockfish
Berlin Defence--0–12017C65Stockfish vs. AlphaZero
French Defence--1–02017C11AlphaZero vs. Stockfish
Queen's Indian Defence--1–02017E15AlphaZero vs. Stockfish

Download the full article by Miguel Illescas from Peón de Rey # 132 (PDF)

In computer chess there is no getting past Komodo, a two-time ICGA Computer World Chess Champion. Find out how Komodo can take your game to the next level!

The next issue of Peón de Rey #137 will be released November 1st

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Miguel is a Spanish chess player born in Barcelona. He is the editor of the chess magazine "Peón de Rey" and contributes to the daily newspaper "La Vanguardia" where he tests readers with different chess moves.

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