Khanty Rd10: Jakovenko!

by Alejandro Ramirez
5/26/2015 – And just like that, a new challenger has appeared! With Jakovenko's excellent win today against Karjakin, he has put his own fate into his hands. If he is able to defeat Nakamura, with the black pieces, he will qualify for the 2015 Candidates. Anything less than that will leave him out of the competition. Three tie for first, but what everyone cares about is who will qualify?

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The fourth and final stage of the 2014-2015 Grand Prix Series. This tournament is specially important as it will determine the winner and runner up of this year, both of which will automatically qualify for the 2015 Candidates Tournament - the winner of that will challenge Magnus Carlsen to the World Championship Match! The tournament is taking place in Khanty-Mansiysk, Ugra, Russia from May 13 to May 27.

Round Ten

Round 10 – May 25 2015, 15:00h
Gelfand, Boris 2744
½-½
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
½-½
Svidler, Peter 2734
Jobava, Baadur 2699
1-0
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
½-½
Giri, Anish 2776
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
½-½
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
1-0
Karjakin, Sergey 2753

The proud flags of the participants in Ugra

Gelfand, Boris ½-½ Tomashevsky, Evgeny
Sacrificing a pawn in order to equalize when Black gets his material back seems to be all the rage in opening theory. Tomashevsky did that very successfully today. Gelfand might have had the tiniest of pulls at the end of the game, but it was already very close to equal.

Solid Evgeny Tomashevsky

Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime ½-½ Svidler, Peter
A solid Spanish for two players that are not in contention for anything, really. The draw was reached after several trades in a locked position.

MVL has one more game to play before he can finish this tournament and forget about it

Jobava, Baadur 1-0 Dominguez, Leinier
Jobava is the type of player who can be dead last in the tournament, and he is still incredibly strong psychologically and is always a very strong threat. Dominguez, who before this round was still tied for first, suffered a tough defeat at the hands of the Georgian player.

Dominguez falls down to a tie for fourth

In a still positionally complicated battle, Dominguez decided to give up his dark-squared bishop for his opponent's centralized knight. This created an opposite colored bishop situation on the board, but it heavily favored Jobava. White's superior pawn structure coupled with the excellent bishop on e3 - blocking the e4 pawn and safeguarding the kingside - were enough to give him positional advantages to work with. He played with expertise, precision and patience and won a nice point.

Grischuk, Alexander ½-½ Giri, Anish
A pretty complex game. Grischuk certainly had the better position throughout the entire game. His structure was more flexible and he had the opportunities to break in the center, not to mention his knight on b6 was particularly annoying. Even in the final position it did seem that the Russian had the better chances, but the players agreed to a draw.

Grischuk had the better chances today, but did not convert

Caruana, Fabiano ½-½ Nakamura, Hikaru
Another Dragon! Unfortunately trades were heavy today - after Caruana "sacrificed" a bishop (the minor piece could not be taken as Nakamura's king would simply have been too exposed), Nakamura retaliated by taking a seemingly poisoned pawn on h2. The players traded a few blows but the endgame resulted in a draw.

Needing two draws to qualify for the Candidates one wouldn't have thought of playing the Sicilian Dragon!

Jakovenko, Dmitry 1-0 Karjakin, Sergey
An excellent game by Jakovekno. First, at the expense of his structure, he won the pair of bishops. This gave him a great deal of control over the dark squares, and this became even more significant when his bishop landed on d6. Black's queen was suddenly trapped in the middle of the board, but Karjakin obtained a rook, a knight and a pawn in compensation. Jakovenko proceeded to play in both flanks to try to bring down Karjakin's fortress, and he succeeded in doing so after a long struggle - one that was not void of mistakes in mutual time trouble.

With this result Jakovenko puts his fate in his own hands: a win against Nakamura tomorrow seals the deal and he will qualify for the Candidates.

Standings

Current Grand Prix Standings:

Caruana - 370

Nakamura - 347

Jakovenko - 310

Round Ten Games

Select from the dropdown menu to replay the games

Photos from the official website by Kirill Merkurev

Schedule

Round 01 – May 14 2015, 15:00h
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
½-½
Gelfand, Boris 2744
Jobava, Baadur 2699
0-1
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
½-½
Svidler, Peter 2734
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
½-½
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
1-0
Giri, Anish 2776
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
½-½
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
Round 02 – May 15 2015, 15:00h
Gelfand, Boris 2744
½-½
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
Giri, Anish 2776
½-½
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
1-0
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
Svidler, Peter 2734
½-½
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
½-½
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
½-½
Jobava, Baadur 2699
Round 03 – May 16 2015, 15:00h
Jobava, Baadur 2699
½-½
Gelfand, Boris 2744
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
½-½
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
1-0
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
0-1
Svidler, Peter 2734
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
½-½
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
½-½
Giri, Anish 2776
Round 04 – May 17 2015, 15:00h
Gelfand, Boris 2744
½-½
Giri, Anish 2776
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
½-½
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
Svidler, Peter 2734
½-½
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
½-½
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
0-1
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
Jobava, Baadur 2699
½-½
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
Round 05 – May 19 2015, 15:00h
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
½-½
Gelfand, Boris 2744
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
½-½
Jobava, Baadur 2699
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
1-0
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
1-0
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
½-½
Svidler, Peter 2734
Giri, Anish 2776
½-½
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
Round 06 – May 20 2015, 15:00h
Gelfand, Boris 2744
½-½
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
Svidler, Peter 2734
1-0
Giri, Anish 2776
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
½-½
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
0-1
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
Jobava, Baadur 2699
½-½
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
0-1
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
Round 07 – May 21 2015, 15:00h
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
½-½
Gelfand, Boris 2744
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
½-½
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
½-½
Jobava, Baadur 2699
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
1-0
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
Giri, Anish 2776
1-0
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
1-0
Svidler, Peter 2734
Round 08 – May 22 2015, 15:00h
Gelfand, Boris 2744
1-0
Svidler, Peter 2734
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
½-½
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
½-½
Giri, Anish 2776
Jobava, Baadur 2699
0-1
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
1-0
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
0-1
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
Round 09 – May 24 2015, 15:00h
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
½-½
Gelfand, Boris 2744
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
½-½
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
½-½
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
Giri, Anish 2776
1-0
Jobava, Baadur 2699
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
½-½
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
Svidler, Peter 2734
0-1
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
Round 10 – May 25 2015, 15:00h
Gelfand, Boris 2744
½-½
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754
½-½
Svidler, Peter 2734
Jobava, Baadur 2699
1-0
Dominguez, Leinier 2734
Grischuk, Alexander 2780
½-½
Giri, Anish 2776
Caruana, Fabiano 2803
½-½
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799
Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
1-0
Karjakin, Sergey 2753
Round 11 – May 26 2015, 15:00h
Karjakin, Sergey 2753   Gelfand, Boris 2744
Nakamura, Hikaru 2799   Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738
Giri, Anish 2776   Caruana, Fabiano 2803
Dominguez, Leinier 2734   Grischuk, Alexander 2780
Svidler, Peter 2734   Jobava, Baadur 2699
Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749   Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754

Links

The games will be broadcast live on the official web site and on the chess server Playchess.com. If you are not a member you can download a free Playchess client there and get immediate access. You can also use ChessBase 13 or any of our Fritz compatible chess programs.


Topics Grand Prix, Khanty

Grandmaster Alejandro Ramirez has been playing tournament chess since 1998. His accomplishments include qualifying for the 2004 and 2013 World Cups as well as playing for Costa Rica in the 2002, 2004 and 2008 Olympiads. He currently has a rating of 2583 and is author of a number of popular and critically acclaimed ChessBase-DVDs.
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SuperMoverBros SuperMoverBros 5/26/2015 05:01
How do they tie break?
Dean Arvidson Dean Arvidson 5/26/2015 08:38
Nice, complete and accurate analysis by filiusdextris! Here's a question....assuming Nakamura and Caruana qualify for the Candidates tournament by GP points (which is the most likely case), then which 2 players will qualify by rating points? Topalov and Kramnik? Are there any scenarios where So gets in?
oputu oputu 5/26/2015 06:00
with the frequency with which these games enter into time trouble, Carlsen is going to have a blast playing any of these opponents. I wish them all the best
ChessNumbers ChessNumbers 5/26/2015 04:27
The statement that for Jakovenko "Anything less than that will leave him out of the competition" is not true. He can qualify with a draw as well, provided Caruana loses and other results go the right way for him. All told I have Jakovenko at an estimated 19.5% chance of qualifying (and the not-quite-dead-yet Tomashevsky with about a 0.3% chance).

There's also a ridiculously unlikely scenario where it's technically possible for both Jakovenko AND Tomashevsky to advance (it will happen roughly 1/5500 times).
filiusdextris filiusdextris 5/26/2015 03:56
Gelfand

If Gelfand defeats Karjakin, and if Giri defeats Caruana, and if Nakamura draws Jakovenko; and if Dominguez draws Grischuk, Gelfand would tie 1st-3rd with Nakamura and Jakovenko, winning 140 GP points, having 310 overall. Caruana would tie for 4th-6th with Giri and Dominguez, winning 80 GP points, having 310 overall. In that scenario, Tomashevsky would, at best, tie for 7th-8th with Grischuk, winning 55 GP points and 307 overall.

Nakamura would finish first in the GP standings with 347 GP points, Gelfand and Jakovenko and Caruana would tie for 2nd with 310 points. Under the first tiebreak, cumulative game result points, Caruana has 18.5; Jakovenko has 17.5; Gelfand has 16.5. Caruana would advance as 2nd place in the GP series, with Jakovenko as first alternate, and Gelfand as second alternate.

Instead of scenarios where Gelfand finishes tied for 2nd, finishing 4th on tie-breaks, it might be better to finish clear 3rd. Gelfand cannot pass Caruana on the final GP standings, even if the latter loses. This requires a decisive Nakamura-Jakovenko result (either way), and of course a Gelfand win vs. Karjakin. Gelfand would win at least 100 GP points with a 3rd-4th place tie with Dominguez, a 110 if Dominguez does not win, and a 140 if he also passes Caruana, for respective possible totals of 270, 280, or 310. If Nakamura wins in this scenario, Gelfand always finishes ahead of Jakovenko. But if the decisive game favors Jakovenko, Nakamura can finish 3rd in the overall GP standings behind Caruana/Jakovenko, ahead of Gelfand in some cases. Tomashevsky can also catch him in some scenarios. Gelfand does better when Dominguez doesn’t catch him, and when he also passes Caruana in the current event. If both of these happen, his clear-2nd finish would only lose to Tomashevsky if the latter finishes clear 7th, possible if Tomashevsky wins and Jobava defeats or draws Svidler.

Karjakin

Karjakin can best finish in a five-way tie at 6 points for 2nd-6th place with Giri, Caruana, the Nakamura-Jakovenko loser, and the higher of Grischuk-Dominguez. This would give him 98 GP points and a total of 255. He would still finish behind Tomashevsky, Caruana, Nakamura, Jakovenko for 5th place overall in the GP standings no matter what happened. This is still better than anyone else, even Mamedyarov, who also will finish at least behind either Karjakin or Gelfand.
filiusdextris filiusdextris 5/26/2015 03:54
Caruana

If Caruana wins, he wins 155-170 GP points, the lesser number if Nakamura-Jakovenko is decisive. Since we know Nakamura can win and advance (see above analysis for Nakamura), the same is true for Caruana who has the same current score, but more GP points coming in. There is a highly unlikely scenario where Nakamura won’t advance with either 1st or 2nd with a draw (see same analysis) because Tomashevsky can catch him, but Caruana has an additional 23-point buffer to eliminate this possibility.

If Caruana loses to Giri, and Nakamura draws with Jakovenko, Caruana will still finish ahead of Jakovenko if either Gelfand or Dominguez wins or both (see above analysis for Jakovenko), which dilutes Jakovenko’s point total too much. He defeats Jakovenko only on tie-break in the case of one extra winner (see same), but that’s good enough. He even defeats Jakovenko and Gelfand on tie-break at 310 if that winner is Gelfand, but again, that’s good enough (Caruana’s 6.5+6.0 +6.5 vs. Gelfand’s 6.5+3.5+6.0). At worst case in that scenario, Caruana finishes tied for 5th-6th with Giri, behind Nakamura, Jakovenko, Dominguez, and Gelfand. He would gain 75 GP points, putting him at 305 total, ahead of Jakovenko at 297. However, in this case, Tomashevsky could finish clear 7th by defeating Vachier-LaGrave which would give him 60 GP points and 312 total, narrowly advancing over Caruana. This requires Svidler to also draw or lose against Jobava, thereby not catching Tomashevsky and thus diluting his standing.

Tomashevsky

Based on the above analysis, Tomashevsky can finish 2nd overall in the GP series, thus qualifying for the Candidates, but only if both Gelfand and Dominguez win, which would dilute second-place ties too much in various scenarios. In the case of Caruana winning and a Nakamura-Jakovenko tie, he only needs to win his own game to pass Nakamura. In the case of Caruana losing to Giri, he also needs Jobava to defeat or draw Svidler in order to pass Caruana.
filiusdextris filiusdextris 5/26/2015 03:52
Nakamura

If Nakamura wins, he wins 155-170 GP points for a total of 362-377. Tomashevsky cannot catch him, even if he finishes clear 6th, his highest possible finish, with 70 GP points, and a total of 322. He would finish either first or second in the final GP standings depending on how Caruana does.

If Nakamura draws with Jakovenko, he finishes ahead of Jakovenko in the GP series since he had more points coming in and they finish on the same score here. If Nakamura and Caruana both draw, he finishes behind Caruana in the GP series since he had less points coming in and they finish on the same score here. If Nakamura draws, and Caruana loses, Nakamura needs to make up the difference of 23 points in the current GP standings. If Nakamura draws with Caruana losing, the worst he can do is a four-way tie for first with Jakovenko, Gelfand, and Dominguez. Caruana would tie with Giri in that scenario for 5th-6th and 75 GP points, but Nakamura would gain at worst 127 points, easily erasing the current 23 points deficit.

So, if Nakamura draws, and Caruana draws or wins, the only person who could then push Nakamura out of 1st or 2nd and a ticket to the Candidates is Tomashevsky. In a five-way tie for 1st place, Nakamura nets 118 points. Added to his current total, his final GP point total would be 325. Tomashevsky could finish at best with a tie with Giri for 6th-7th and 65 points. Added to his current total, his final GP point total would be 317, still behind Nakamura. However, if Caruana defeats Giri, and Nakamura draws into a four-way tie for 2nd-5th, Nakamura wins 105 points, going to 312 points. In this scenario, Tomashevsky can finish clear 6th by defeating Vachier-Lagrave and gain 70 points, pushing his total to 322. Even a shared 6th-7th tie with Svidler (if the latter beats Jobava), still surpasses Nakamura.

Thus, if Nakamura draws, in order for him not to finish at least 2nd in the final GP standings with a ticket to the Candidates, all of the following must occur: Caruana must defeat Giri (with Black), Gelfand must defeat Karjakin (with Black), Dominguez must defeat Grischuk, and Tomashevsky must defeat Vachier-Lagrave.

Jakovenko

If Jakovenko wins, he wins 155-170 GP points for a total of 325-340. Tomashevsky cannot catch him, even if he finishes clear 6th, his highest possible finish, with 70 GP points, and a total of 322. He would finish either first or second in the final GP standings depending on how Caruana does.

If Jakovenko draws, he would finish behind Nakamura. To finish in 2nd place overall, Caruana must lose. Jakovenko would gain between 127-155 points, depending on whether Dominguez and Gelfand can win their games, taking a tied share of first place. In a four-way tie for first place among Jakovenko, Nakamura, Gelfand, and Dominguez, Jakovenko only gains 127 points, bringing his total to 297. In that scenario, Caruana ties for 5th-6th winning 75 GP points, and surpassing Jakovenko with 305. In a three-way tie for first place among Jakovenko, Nakamura, and only one of Gelfand, and Dominguez, they each gain 140 points, bringing Jakovenko’s total to 310. In that scenario, Caruana finishes tied 4th-6th with Giri and one other among the group of Gelfand, Dominguez, Karjakin or Grischuk. Caruana would gain 80 points, bringing his total to 310, the same as Jakovenko. Caruana defeats Jakovenko on the first tie-break as Caruana’s cumulative score across the GPs (6.5 + 6.0 + 6.0) is higher than Jakovenko’s (4.5 + 6.5 + 6.5).
Therefore, Jakovenko can only advance to a 2nd place final GP standing, and a ticket to the candidates, with a draw if Caruana loses and both Gelfand and Dominguez draw or lose. Note that in this scenario, Jakovenko gains 155 points for a first-place tie for a total of 325. Tomashevsky cannot catch him, since his highest finish in this hypothetical, a clear 7th, adds 60 GP points to his current total of 252 and a final tally of 312, short of Jakovenko.
DJones DJones 5/26/2015 03:27
The likelihood of this happening is very, very small. Tomashevsky has easier ways in but they involve Caruana Losing, not winning.
Dean Arvidson Dean Arvidson 5/26/2015 02:11
It's worth noting that Tomashevsky is not mathematically eliminated from qualifying yet! All 6 games will need specific results, but in the unlikely situation where Caruana defeats Giri, Nakamura and Jakovenko draw, Gelfand defeats Karjakin, Dominguez defeats Grischuk, Svidler does not defeat Jobava and Tomashevsky defeats MVL, then Tomashevsky will qualify for the candidates (along with Caruana)! ;-) Nakamura will still likely qualify for the Candidates tournament on rating points.
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