When proofreading Mark Dvorestky's Endgame Manual for the 5th edition in 2019 I had noticed that Mark's winning proof was not convincing. As neither I nor my engines could find a win or drawing proof I decided to leave it out as there were other examples on such fortresses in the book.
The first correct and convincing published win was given by Peter Prohaszka in two excellent articles in American Chess Magazine 21/2021, p.67-73 (this is the second part with the solution). The following by Wolfram Schön based on the comments of the ChessBase readers is a version of it:
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45...Qb6! 46.Qb1! h4! 46...Kb8?! 47.Nxb6 cxb6 48.h4! gxh4 49.Qh1!+- 47.Qf1 Kb8 48.Kb2 Kc8 49.Kc2 Kb8 50.Kd2 Kc8 51.Ke2 Kb8 52.Qb1 Kc8 53.Kf1 Kb8 54.Qb3 Kb7 55.Nb2 Qa7! 55...Kb8?! 56.a4! Qa7 57.Qc3 Kb7 58.Nd3 Qa8 59.Kg1! Kb6 60.Nxe5 Qh8?! 61.Nd7++- 56.Qc2! 56.a4? Kb6 57.Qc3 Qa8 58.Nd3 Qh8= 56...Bh2 56...Kb8?! 57.a4! Kb7 58.Qc3 Qa8 59.Nd3 Bh2 60.Kf2 Bg3+ 61.Kg1! 57.Na4! Qb6 58.g4! Bg3 58...hxg3?! 59.Nxb6 cxb6 60.h4!+- 59.Qb3 Bh2 60.Qa2 Bg3 61.Qc2! Kb8 61...Qa7 62.b6! cxb6 63.Qb3 Qa6 64.Nc3+- 62.Nb2 Qa7 63.a4! Kb7 64.Nd3 Qb6 64...Qa8 65.Qc3 Bh2 66.Nxc5++- 65.Qc3 Bh2 66.Kf2 Bg3+ 67.Kg2 Qa7 67...Kc8 68.Nc1 Kb7 69.Nb3+- 68.Nxe5! dxe5 69.Qxe5 Qb6 70.Qxg5+- - Start an analysis engine:
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Here's the full game in which the position occurred, and the solution worked out by Michael Taktikos. In the following you can click (or tap) on any move or any diagram to get a special replayer, where you can start an engine and explore the moves even further.
The plan to smash the black fortress in a nutshell:
- The knight "wants" (via b2) to square d3, from where it can occasionally sacrifice itself on e5 or c5, or quickly change direction from d3 and act via c1 and b3 on a5.
- The queen "wants" to support him from square c3, from where she can act on a5 and e5
- The king wants to move to the kingside, last not least making room for the correct positioning of the former pieces.
Which of the engines can find the win? Their evaluation is deceptive, since almost all show a win evaluation without recognizing the fortress, and with 1. Nxb6? are immediately caught up in the draw vortex. Among the engines that recognize the fortress and start with 1.Kb3!, Lc0 v0.30.0-rc1 with the NN BT2-768x15smolgen-12h-do-01-3650000 is the one who consistently follows the described plan and evaluates the planned move significantly better than other moves. From this one is the main variant in the pgn (on a GPU 3060ti, roughly 15 sec/move)
The second best is Crystal 5 KWK, and the third place goes to Stockfish XI-r1 FD (fortress detection). The latter two also start right away with 1.Kb3, but in their 4 HV they show roughly the same (winning) evaluation for almost all moves and do not follow the plan in a straight line, but only after lengthy maneuvering and some repetitions of the position. The side variants mentioned in the pgn come from these engines (on a CPU Ryzen 9 3900x, set to 22 threads, roughly 15 sec/ move).