The Titleholder
Magnus Carlsen – Norway – age 30 – World No. 1
1. Openings
9
Carlsen is not only very well prepared in the main lines, but he can also choose to play a "quiet" variation at any time to torment his opponent in an even position. This ability to play any kind of position, and the opening knowledge he has accumulated since his first World Championship match in 2013, make Magnus an unpredictable player.
2. Middlegames and transition phases
8.5
The world champion, to put it simply, has no weaknesses. He calculates well, and is able to discover hidden possibilities when it comes to long-term compensation. One example – of many – is his masterpiece against Richard Rapport.
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25.e5! Bxg2 26.Qxg2 dxe5 27.Nd5! e4 28.Bc3 f6 29.Kh1! Kh8 30.Rg1 Bf8 31.Ne3 Qc6 32.Rd5 Qe6 33.Rh5 33...Qf7 34.Qh3 g6 35.Rh4 Rb6 36.f5 Ne5 37.Nd5 Rd6 38.fxg6 Nxg6 39.Bxf6+! Rxf6 40.Rxh7+! 40.Rxh7+ Qxh7 41.Qxh7+ Kxh7 42.Nxf6+ 1–0 - Start an analysis engine:
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Carlsen,M | 2835 | Rapport,R | 2731 | 1–0 | 2019 | B47 | 81st Tata Steel GpA | 8.1 |
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3. Endgames and transpositions
9.5
If transposing to an endgame or making a drastic change in the position is to his advantage, Magnus Carlsen will know how to assess these positions with great ease. In endgames, he's capable of realizing microscopic advantages in positions, in which most players would agree to a draw. One example – of many – is his victory in an equal ending against Alireza Firouzja, just a few months ago...
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21.Rad1 Rfe8 22.Rxd8 Rxd8 23.Rd1 Rxd1+ 24.Bxd1 Kf8 25.f4 Ke7 26.Kf2 Kd6 27.b4 Bd5 28.g4 h6 29.g5 hxg5 30.fxg5 c5 31.Ke3 cxb4 32.cxb4 Ke5 33.h4 g6 34.Bg4 Be6 35.h5! gxh5 36.Bxh5 Kf5 37.Bf3 Bc8 38.Kd4 Kxg5 39.Ke5! f5 40.Kd6 40...f4? 40...Kf4! 41.Ke5! Kg6 42.Kxf4 Kf6 43.Bd5 Bd7 44.Bb7 44...Ke6 45.Ke4 Kd6 46.Bxa6 Bc6+ 47.Kd4 Be8 48.Bb7 Bd7 49.Bf3 Bc8 50.Be2 Bd7 51.Bd3 Bc6 52.Be4 1–0 - Start an analysis engine:
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Carlsen,M | 2855 | Firouzja,A | 2754 | 1–0 | 2021 | C78 | 9th Norway Chess 2021 | 6.1 |
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4. Strategy and general chess understanding
9.5
Magnus has the best general chess understanding in the world – there is a reason why he is the world’s number 1!
5. Tactics / Calculation
8.5
Of course, Carlsen calculates extremely well, but I do not believe that this is his greatest strength – though this is compensated by his incredibly good instincts. This is a part of the game, where Nepomniachtchi will have to try to catch out his opponent, but when Magnus is in top form, he will not be caught out.
6. Time management
9.5
Magnus Carlsen manages his time excellently: he never plays too fast, but very rarely finds himself in uncomfortable time-trouble.
7. Team and ability to work
8
Magnus has been working with Peter-Heine Nielsen and Laurent Fressinet for many years, while other players on his team seem to be changing year after year. He often invites young talents for training sessions, as he did with players such as Alireza Firouzja, Nils Grandelius and… Ian Nepomniachtchi! Obviously, we do not know who will assist him this year. I expect that several strong players will help him, but perhaps his opponent’s team is stronger, depending how much the best Russian players are involved. In terms of work, it is known that Carlsen is almost always deeply involved with chess, however, I believe he does not work as hard as players like Anish Giri, Fabiano Caruana, or Vladimir Kramnik when he was still active.
8. Psychology / mental strength
9
Carlsen has shown his psychological strengh in his previous World Championship matches. However, if things do not go his way – which does not happen very often – he can collapse. Although the World Champion appears confident in his interviews, his score against Nempomniachtchi in classical games (+4 -1 =6) could have an impact as well, though I I do not think it will.
9. Physical condition
9.5
The world champion is known for his love of sport. Apart from his pure fitness training, he regularly plays football, tennis, and other sports. He has a reasonable level in most of them, a consistency that he probably owes to the fact that he "hates losing", as some of his friends reveal. Physical fitness will be another big asset for Magnus in this long match.
10. Experience
9
Carlsen won his first World Championship match in 2013 and defended his title in three World Championship matches after that. As both players have almost the same age, Carlsen’s match experience should be more than enough to outclass an opponent who has never played a World Championship before.
Overall 90/100
Let our authors show you how Carlsen tailored his openings to be able to outplay his opponents strategically in the middlegame or to obtain an enduring advantage into the endgame.
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The Challenger
Ian Nepomniachtchi – Russia – age 31 – World No. 5
1. Openings
7.5
In general, Ian Nepomniachtchi is seriously behind in terms of opening preparation, however, there is no doubt he has tried to catch up with several months of intense work. Sometimes, he ends up in pretty bad positions after the opening – but that should not happen in Dubai if he prepared for he match the way he should!
2. Middlegames and transition phases
8.5
"Nepo" has great chess instincts, and I think, he relies more on them than on exact calculation. The middlegame is clearly the part of the game where he can pose the most problems for Magnus Carlsen, who is better prepared and a better endgame player.
3. Endgames and transpositions
8
Of course, Nepomniachtchi is excellent in all areas of the game, but nevertheless Carlsen outclasses him in endgames and the transposition to endgames.
4. Strategy and general chess understanding
7.5
Nepomniachtchi has an excellent understanding of dynamics, but Carlsen is the better strategic player. Nepomniachtchi is of course capable of playing great positional games, but from time to time he happens to play moves that are positionally awful – I don’t think, he is very consistent here.
5. Tactics / Calculation
9.5
Tactics and calculation are Nepomniachtchi's strong points, and they could make him World Champion! One example – of many – is the following fine victory against Firouzja. It was a blitz game but shows Nepomniachtchi’s dynamic abilities!
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1.e4 e5 2.f4 exf4 3.Nf3 Nf6 4.e5 Nh5 5.d4 d6 6.Qe2 dxe5 7.Nxe5 Qh4+ 8.g3! Nxg3 9.hxg3 Qxh1 10.Bxf4 Be6? 11.Nc3 g5 12.d5!? gxf4 13.dxe6 Bd6 14.0-0-0 Qh6 15.Qb5+ Nc6 16.Nxf7 Qxe6 17.Bc4 Qe3+ 18.Kb1 Qc5 19.Nxd6+ cxd6 20.Qxb7 Qxc4 21.Qxa8+ Nd8 22.Re1+ Kf7 23.Qxa7+ Kg6 24.gxf4 Qc5 25.Rg1+ 1–0 - Start an analysis engine:
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Nepomniachtchi,I | 2792 | Firouzja,A | 2754 | 1–0 | 2021 | C34 | 9th Norway Armageddon | 2.2 |
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6. Time management
8
It is very unusual to see Nepomniachtchi in time-trouble. Nevertheless... I believe he has a tendency to play too quickly, which could be fatal against Carlsen who is unlikely to miss a good opportunity if he is given one. However, Nepomniachtchi is able to see a phenomenal amount of stuff in a short period of time.
7. Team and ability to work
7
Aside from Vladimir Potkin, no name has been officially disclosed from the "Nepo" squad (as far as I know), although we can imagine he will be heavily supported by Russia. I do not think he is what we can call a "really hard worker" compared to some other top level guys, however, we can easily imagine that he has worked pretty intensively during the last six months.
8. Psychology
9.5
That’s another strength of Nepomniachtchi: he is not afraid of anyone and goes to Dubai with the firm intention to win. His self-confidence explains his positive score against Carlsen, who this time will not benefit from the advantage of a slightly "scared" opponent as in his three previous matches. Nepomniachtchi is one of the few players in the world who is able to slaughter Carlsen in a game, without the slightest fear of a turnaround – the game below being pretty self-explanatory!
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1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6 6.Rg1 b5 7.g4 Bb7 8.g5 Nxe4 9.Nxe4 Bxe4 10.a4 e5 11.axb5 Be7 12.Rg4! axb5 13.Bxb5+ Nd7 14.Bd2 Bb7 15.Nf5 0-0 16.Rxa8 Bxa8 17.Rh4 17...g6 18.Qg4! Nc5 19.Qh3 h5 20.Rxh5! gxh5 21.Qxh5 Ne6 1–0 - Start an analysis engine:
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Nepomniachtchi,I | 2784 | Carlsen,M | 2863 | 1–0 | 2020 | B90 | Legends of Chess Final | 2.13 |
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9. Physical condition
7.5
While the Russian is young and in fine shape, he is far away from Carlsen's overall physical condition, although "Nepo" revealed that he went on a serious diet and followed a rigorous exercise-plan over the last few months, which definitely grant him extra marks.
10. Experience
7
Nepomniachtchi has been part of the world’s elite for a long time and he won the Candidates tournament relatively easily, though Maxime Vachier-Lagrave almost ruined his party! However, it will be Nepomniachtchi’s first World Championship match, and that is still different from playing in top tournaments.
Overall 100:80
The opinion of Veselin Topalov, World Champion 2005: "Naturally Carlsen is the big favourite. Nevertheless, his last two matches have not been a walk in the park, especially against Karjakin. Nepomniachtchi will have a chance if he is the first to win a game and gets a psychological advantage. A tiebreak is unlikely in a 14-game match."
My prognosis: Carlsen dominates most of the tournaments he plays with an impressive consistency. Keeping his crown longer than anyone ever did must surely be his biggest goal in chess so we may expect him to take these three weeks seriously. He might think they are the only really important ones of the year.
And though I expect a lot of fresh ideas from Nepomniachtchi, I believe Carlsen has at least a 75% to win the match. If the Norwegian avoids slippery grounds (especially very tactical positions), the Russian will have a hard time trying to outclass his opponent.
However, three three things give Nepomiachtchi chances to win the match: his self-confidence, his calculation skills, and his strength in games with shortened time control in case of a tie-break (a serious difference compared to the previous two matches).
This article first appeared in French in the French chess magazine Europe Echecs. Translated and reprinted with kind permission.
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