Candidates: The final four

by Macauley Peterson
3/27/2018 – The final four games, the final four players who have a chance — Monday's play brought some clarity to the stakes in the last round, but Tuesday is shaping up to be a barn-burner. Sergey Karjakin's late surge (since Saturday) stalled as he made a dry draw against Wesley So from, and he puts all his hopes on Tuesday's game. Fabiano Caruana took advantage: The American won in a wild melee against Levon Aronian and is now half a point ahead of Karjakin. And Shakh is back: the Azerbaijani world number two won Monday against Grischuk and is now equal second with Karjakin. Ding is the dark horse who will have to go all-out to win. | Photo: Niki Riga

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Four crucial games

How do you prepare for one of the most important games if your life? If you're Sergey Karjakin you go to the zoo, which is a short trip across town at one end of the large "Tiergarten" park (Tier means animal in German). As he told the live audience on Monday, he and his second Alexander Riazantsev intended to go inside too, but were dissuaded by the large crowd on an early Spring Sunday. If fighting a crowd was inadvisable, what about fighting with black against Wesley So? The clocks changed to Summer Time in Europe over the weekend, so the first order of business was just to get to the game on time.

Karjakin was the last to arrive at the board, as has typically been the case, and the first to leave. "When you're opponent plays very solidly there's not much you can do", was the Russian's verdict. And indeed, already after the first hour, all games were almost exactly level, but complicated — except for Karjakin vs So, which was quickly simplifying and heading for a draw. When the pair reached a symmetrical rook and knight endgame, commentator Judit Polgar still felt the position was easier for Black to play and that therefore there was no reason for Sergey to press for a win, risk-free. But So gave him no such chance, trading first the knights, then the kingside pawns, a pair of rooks, and finally the remaining pawns before offering a handshake.

Karjakin

Karjakin's make or break game postponed to Tuesday | Photo: Niki Riga

That result already made the chance of a Wednesday playoff match virtually impossible. It also left an opening for Fabiano Caruana, in his final game with the white pieces. Against the struggling Levon Aronian, he took full advantage and, with a win, takes a half point lead into Tuesday's finale. Mamedyarov too, by beating Alexander Grischuk, pulled equal with Karjakin, thereby giving him excellent chances in any tiebreak situation. Even Ding, a full point behind Caruana has chances, should the American stumble. Ding's head-to-head game with Karjakin leaves his fate in his own hands, but he will have to go all-out for a win.

For a detailed look at the standings and what's at stake, see Candidates tiebreak scenarios.

Standings after round thirteen

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So ½-½ Karjakin

Karjakin's play indicated that he was satisfied with a draw. And Wesley So, for his part, was fine with playing no role, even indirectly, in deciding on the winner of the Candidates Tournament. For Karjakin, the draw would put pressure on Caruana to win, especially since the American has black in the last round, while Karjakin has white.

As the game wound down, GM Daniel King, had a chat with visiting guest GM Miguel Illescas, a veteran of three World Championship matches as a second to Vladimir Kramnik.

Daniel King chats with Miguel Illescas for Power Play Chess

 
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1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nc3 Bb4 4.Qc2 d5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6.Qxc3 Ne4 7.Qc2 c5 8.dxc5 Nc6
There are many GM games from this position and the draw rate is quite high! 9.Nf3 Qa5+ 10.Bd2 Qxc5 11.e3 Nxd2 12.Nxd2 dxc4 13.b4 Here Karjakin took a little more time, and his decision to exchanges queens is equivalent to a draw offer. Qf5 14.Qxf5 White could have avoided the queen swap with 14.Qxc4 but there was nothing to be gained. 14...exf5 15.Bxc4 Ke7 16.Nf3 Be6 17.Bxe6 fxe6 18.Ke2 Rhc8 19.Rhc1 Nd8 20.Ne5 Nf7 21.Nxf7 Kxf7 22.e4 Kf6 23.Ke3 g5 24.g3 h5 25.h3 g4 26.hxg4 hxg4 27.f3 gxf3 28.Kxf3 Ke5 29.exf5 exf5 30.Re1+ Kf6 31.Rac1 Rxc1 32.Rxc1 Rd8 33.Rc7 Rd3+ 34.Kf4 Rxa3 35.Rxb7 Ra4 36.Rb5 a5 37.Rxf5+ Kg7 38.Rg5+ Kf6 39.Rf5+ White can't win this ending, despite his extra pawn.
½–½
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
So,W2799Karjakin,S2763½–½2018E37World Chess Candidates 201813

After the game, we grabbed Karjakin for a further comment:

Caruana 1-0 Aronian

Caruana prepared the mild-mannered move 9.Bd2 in the Ruy Lopez, instead of more common 9.c3. The same move had been tried in Grischuk's game with Aronian in round twelve, and Caruana calls it "a brilliant opening invention...a small chapter in the Anti-Marshall". He and his second Rustam Kasimdzhanov checked the line for an hour or so on Sunday before adjourning to see a film, "The Shape of Water", writer/director Guillermo del Toro's latest fantasy drama, "which was excellent", according Caruana. "For two hours I could just forget about chess, which is what I needed."

The shape of the game rather quickly trended in White's favour after the opening phase. Caruana pointed to 18.g3 as an important prophylactic move, preventing a lot of Black's ideas for counterplay. Black could never organise the f5-break, and Aronian resorted to more drastic measures.

A few moves later Caruana was faced with a pleasant choice, though one not at all simply in such an important game.

 
Caruana vs Aronian
Position after 22...Nf6

White has the option to win a pawn on b5, which the computer favours, but requires calculating several complicated lines. Watching the game alongside Daniel King, he remarked that "Magnus would probably go 23.Nh4 and save 15 minutes". Caruana ended up playing the latter after about 12 mins. The expectation was that Caruana would hack off the g6-bishop and have an excellent position. But as Polgar noted, "just because you have a great position, it doesn't mean you're going to win the game."

Instead after 23...Qe6, Caruana spent a further 14 minutes on 24.Bd3, proviking Aronian to sacrifice a piece after 24...Bh5 25.g4 ("Here we go boys and girls, strap in!" was Lawrence Trent's take) 25...Bxg4! Levon pondered the sacrifice for a full 20 minutes.

 
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1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bb5 a6 4.Ba4 Nf6 5.0-0 Be7 6.Re1 b5 7.Bb3 0-0 8.d3 d6 9.Bd2 Bg4 10.c3 d5 11.h3 Bh5 12.Qe2 Rb8 13.Bg5 dxe4 14.dxe4 h6 15.Bc1 Bg6 16.Nbd2 Nh5 17.Nf1 Bc5 18.g3
This position with the symmetrical structure looks manageable at first glance, but the character position plays a big role. Small mistakes can have a big impact. 18...Kh7 And this move was probably such an inaccuracy. 19.Kg2 Qe7 20.Bc2! An important, versatile move. The white king is in the line of fire of the bishop, which will play a role later, as will the white pawns on the queenside. Rfd8 21.b4 Bb6 22.a4 Nf6 23.Nh4 A good move. With 23.axb5! axb5 24.Qxb5 Bxf2 25.Qxc6 Bxe1 26.Nxe1 White also had a concrete, promising alternative. 23...Qe6 24.Bd3 Bh5 25.g4
Here Aronian invested a lot of time, but has nothing better than to go for the sacrifice. 25...Bxg4 26.hxg4 Nxg4 27.Nf5! Caruana finds the best move. Nxf2 28.Bc2 g6 29.N1e3 The Computers want here 29.a5! Ba7 30.N5e3 Nh3 31.Nd5 with a clear advantage, threatening not only Nxc7, but after Qf3 also Nf6+ in some lines. 29...gxf5 30.exf5 White is better but anything can happen in a time scramble. Qf6! 31.Qxf2! It's essential for White to prevent the black queen from reaching h4. e4 Aronian misses his chance and is now lost. Instead, the surprising 31...Nxb4‼ would have turned the tables. Black had to realize the follow up with all heavy pieces quickly attacking the naked white king - at all costs! 32.cxb4 Rd4 33.Kh3 Qg5 34.f6+ Kh8 35.Bd1 Rg8 36.Ng2 Rf4! 32.Rh1! Not only attacks h6, but also protects your own king from further assault. Rd6 33.Bxe4 Rg8+ 34.Kf1 Now the white king is safe and the win is in hand. Ne5 35.Qf4! c6 36.axb5 Or 36.Rxh6+ Qxh6 37.f6+ Rg6 38.Qxh6+ Kxh6 39.Nc4+ Kh5 40.Bxg6+ Kxg6 41.Nxd6 36...Rg5 37.bxa6 Qd8 38.f6+ Ng6 39.Rxh6+!
1–0
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Caruana,F2784Aronian,L27941–02018C88World Chess Candidates 201813

"Three rounds ago, Levon would have found Nxb4, when he was still focused on tournament victory," was Polgar's take. Now the Armenian will have a relatively meaningless game against fellow tail-ender Wesley So.

After his press conference, Daniel King also cornered Caruana for a final thought on the final round:

Mamedyarov 1-0 Grischuk

Many players ditch their semi-formal jackets at the first opportunity but Mamedyarov stayed in his suit jacket throughout the opening, hunched over the board such that it has begun to bunch up in a small triangle at the back of his head. He seems perfectly focused, oblivious to the noise that still regularly emanates from the spectator entrance a few meters away behind a black curtain. He badly needed to rebound after his catestrophic loss to Ding the day before, which had kept him awake through the night.

Grischuck laid out the stakes going into the game this way: “It was a stupid situation, we both needed to win. For me, draw was almost the same as a loss”. 

 
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1.d4 Nf6 2.Nf3 g6 3.g3 Bg7 4.Bg2 0-0 5.0-0 d5 6.c4 dxc4 7.Na3 c3 8.bxc3 c5 9.Re1 Nc6 10.Bb2 Nd5 11.Qc2 cxd4 Grischuk mentioned this as an improvement over the 2017 game Dreev-Puranik 11...Nb6 12.Rad1 Bf5 13.e4 Bg4 14.h3 Bxf3 15.Bxf3 Qc8 16.Bg2 e6 17.dxc5 and White is better but Black actually went on to win. 12.Nxd4 Nf6 13.Nxc6 bxc6 14.c4 Bf5 15.Qc1 Qc7 16.Nc2 Rab8 17.Bc3 Bxc2 18.Qxc2 Ne8 Grischuk liked this move. The point is after something like …a6 then Qa4 is strong, whereas after Ne8 Qa4 is pointless. Grischuk thought for a draw. 18...a6 19.Qa4 19.h4 c5 20.Red1 Bxc3 21.Qxc3 Nf6 22.Bf3 h5 23.Rab1 Rxb1 24.Rxb1 Rb8 25.Rb5 Ne8 26.Qe3 Rxb5 27.cxb5 Nd6 28.a4 c4 29.Kg2 c3 30.Bc6 Qa5 Grischuk thought this offered more chances to Black. 30...a6 "Of course a6 is just an immediate draw", Grischuk said. 31.Qxc3 axb5 32.axb5 Nxb5 33.Qc4 31.Qc5 a6 31...Qxa4 was Grischuk's idea, with a small trap after 32.b6 32.Qxc3 is also fine for White 32...axb6 33.Qxd6 Qc4 34.Qd8+ Kg7 35.Bd5 Qc5 36.Bb3 and a probable draw 32.e4 axb5 32...Qxa4 33.b6 Grischuk planned Qc4 33...Qb3 34.b7 c2 35.Bd5 Qb2 34.Qxc4 Nxc4 35.b7 c2 36.b8Q+ Kg7 but missed this 37.Qf4 33.axb5 Kh7 34.e5 Nxb5 35.e6 Qa3 36.Qxb5 c2 37.exf7 After this Mamedyarov finally took off his jacket. Kg7 38.Be4 c1Q 39.Qe8 Black has an extra queen for one move, but no way to use it in the face of White's mating threats. 1–0
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Mamedyarov,S2809Grischuk,A27671–02018FIDE Berlin Candidates13

Interestingly, Grischuk's assessement of this being an absolute must-win game isn't quite right. A draw would still have given him chances with White in the last round against Caruana. Instead, by self-destructing, he's officially eliminated from contention, and the best he can do is help his teammate Karjakin by knocking off his main rival.

Mamedyarov's task is a hard one. Although favoured by many tiebreak scenarios, his main chance lies with beating Vladimir Kramnik with Black, a tough game to win on-demand. But the way Kramnik had been playing, he's liable to give Shakhriyar chances to mix things up, and stranger things have happened.

Ding ½-½ Kramnik

The draw of Ding Liren, was not really inspiring for the Chinese grandmaster. Although Kramnik has never beaten Ding before (five draws between them), he became significantly better after an oversight from White on move 20:

 
Ding vs Kramnik
Position after 21.Kxg2

Ding grimace

Tactics on the long diagonal allows Black to play 21...Rxa3! After the recapture 22.Nxa3, Trent observed, "you saw for the first time a facial expression from Ding that shows how unhappy he is here."

All in all, Ding, who was significantly worse, had to work hard to salvage a half point and keep a glimmer of hope alive for a tiebreak win tomorrow. It's possible, but unlikely.

Kramnik can play spoiler for Mamedyarov, even by holding him to a draw. A three-way tie on 8 points would favour him, but he can't count on both Caruana losing and Karjakin drawing.

As with all the games, the calculation changes as round fourteen progresses, so the players will all have to keep one eye on their opponents even as they focus on their own efforts.

 
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1.c4 e6 2.Nc3 c5 3.Nf3 Nf6 4.g3 b6 5.e4 Bb7 6.d3 d6 7.Bg2 g6 8.0-0 Bg7 9.Re1 0-0 10.d4 cxd4 11.Nxd4 a6 12.b3 Nbd7 13.Ba3 Nc5 14.b4 Ncd7 15.b5 Ne8 16.Rc1 Ne5 17.Qe2 axb5 18.Ndxb5 g5
It is a demanding position, that must have been exactly what Ding Liren had wanted to have. 19.h3 But this move looks like a waste of time. Black gains the initiative. 19.Red1! 19...f5! 20.exf5 allows Black to gain two pieces for a rook 20.Bb4! 20...Bxg2 21.Kxg2 Rxa3 22.Nxa3 Qa8+ 23.Qe4 Qxa3 24.fxe6 Nf6 25.Qe2 Qa8+ 26.f3 h5 27.e7 Re8 28.Ne4 28.Nd5 was better. 28...g4 29.hxg4 hxg4 30.fxg4 Nfxg4 And here better was 30...Rxe7! 31.g5 Nfd7 31.Qd1 Bh6 32.Rc3 Rxe7 33.Qd5+ Qxd5 34.cxd5 Ra7
Black's advantage has evaporated. Ding gains his twelfth draw in the thirteenth game - and now has but a remote chance to win the Candidates Tournament. 35.Re2 Nf7 36.Kh3 Nge5 37.Nxd6 Nxd6 38.Rxe5 Bg7 39.Rg5 Ne4 40.Rc8+ Kh7 41.Rh5+ Kg6 42.Rh4 Ng5+ 43.Kg2 Rxa2+ 44.Kf1 Ra1+ 45.Ke2 Ra2+ 46.Kf1 Ra1+ 47.Ke2 Ra2+
½–½
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Ding,L2769Kramnik,V2800½–½2018A17World Chess Candidates 201813

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Round-up show with GM Erwin l'Ami

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Macauley served as the Editor in Chief of ChessBase News from July 2017 to March 2020. He is the producer of The Full English Breakfast chess podcast, and was an Associate Producer of the 2016 feature documentary, Magnus.

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