11/3/2018 – In the USA, chess fans are eagerly awaiting the World Championship match to see how Caruana fares as the first American to challenge the undisputed World Champion since 1972. But what about that other eagerly awaited contest that never was: Fischer-Karpov, 1975. It was a match that the whole chess world would have loved to see. Who can say what beautiful ideas the players would have shown us in their games? And who would have won? With statistical modelling, we can at least talk about the likely outcome of the match. Dr. MATTHEW WILSON, economics professor at Truman State University, takes a crack at it. | Artwork: Unknown (via Quora)

1/9/2014 – After detailed database culling, data crunching, and number calculations, Matthew Wilson brings to conclusion his findings on which is ultimately better: 1.e4 or 1.d4. While the great Bobby Fischer was content to state his preference as "best by test", here charts and mathematics rule the day. However, you will find the answer to which opening move is truly the best.

1/8/2014 – While there is no question much of chess is a matter of choice, what if you could know with mathematical certainty which is stronger: 1.e4 or 1.d4? The late Bobby Fischer swore by 1.e4, claiming it was "best by test", but that was before the era of databases. In the following article, PhD student Matthew Wilson takes a close look to answer that very question.

10/20/2013 – The title of his article and his statistical calculations brought Matthew Wilson, a mathematician and economist, a number of letters of protest. In this third installment he painstakingly answers the objections and clarifies his methods. You can work your way up to PhD level statistics if you take the pains to follow the detailed discussion in this feedback page.

9/6/2013 – In November Norwegian GM Magnus Carlsen, currently the world's highest ranked player, will challenge reigning champion Viswanathan Anand in a 12-game match. Many chess fans expect Carlsen to win. But what are his real chances? Matthew Wilson has been running 40,000 match simulations, based on previous results, rating and the event format. He comes up with precise figures.

9/4/2013 – Some players – notably Fischer – were expected to win the title and did so convincingly. With others, such as the FIDE knockout world champions, clearly luck was involved. Statisticians like PhD student Matthew Wilson tell us what to expect from world championship matches, based on the previous results of the players, the event format. Part one (of two) of his statistical study.