Which countries have the most inflated Elo ratings?

In this respect, it is interesting to analyse the results of the most recent World Cups in the U08, U10 and U12 categories (held in Batumi, Georgia) and in the U14, U16 and U18 categories (held in Mamaia, Romania), both for men and women. The sample is large enough (1,355 players from 85 different countries) to draw conclusions and be statistically significant. Of these, Georgia was the country with the largest number of players (114), followed by Kazakhstan (94) and Russia (under the FIDE flag because of sanctions due to Russia's war in Ukraine).

If we analyse the total Elo points gained by country, we see that the winner is India (with 2,966.5 Elo points, distributed among 43 players), followed by Georgia (2,483.2 Elo points gained), Kazakhstan (2,469.7 ELO points) and the countries under the FIDE flag (2,225.3 ELO points).
In terms of Elo losses, Spain leads the way with 2215 Elo points lost, followed by Romania (-1,742.8) and Slovakia (-1,523.2).

Elo gains and losses at the World Age Group Championships (2022). Based on data from chess-results.com. Click here to see the graphic in larger size.

These results can be influenced by the number of participating players per country, so it is interesting to analyse the average Elo gain or loss per young chess player grouped by country. If we exclude countries with less than three participating players per country, so that individual results do not influence the results at country level, we obtain the following data:

Average Elo gain/loss per country in the World Chess Championships by age group (2022). Based on data from chess-results.com. Click here to see the graphic in larger size.

This means that on average the country that lost the most Elo per player was Denmark (-112.77), followed by Slovakia (-89.60) and New Zealand (-83.40). The countries that gained the most Elo per player were Sri Lanka (118.44), Vietnam (104.55) and Brazil (84.73). Among the most powerful countries in chess today is India (with an average gain of 68.99).

These statistics do not reveal the reasons why players from certain countries consistently underperform, while the opposite is true in other countries. However, certain patterns do emerge (the countries with the highest Elo losses are in many cases in Western Europe, while the countries with the highest Elo gains are in Asian and Eastern European countries), which may suggest that the countries with the highest Elo gains have fewer FIDE-rated tournaments (so their players' Elo does not reflect their current level of strength), whereas the countries with more FIDE-rated tournaments have their players' Elo adjusted to reflect their players' level of strength.

Below is the table of countries sorted by Elo gains and losses per country according to the results of the recently held World Age Group Championships in 2022, which could also be interpreted as a ranking of the countries with the most "inflated" and the most "deflated" chess players:

Average ELO gain/loss per country at the World Chess Championships for Age Groups (2022). Author's calculations based on data from chess-results.com.

Links

• The Elo ratings: Inflation or Deflation?
• Elo rating system: How underrated are the kids?