2/24/2022 – In this article, statistician Bruno Wiesend reports on a scientific controversy about a study on the "Influence of intelligence and practice on the development of skills". The author considers the results of the study to be wrong due to methodological errors. | Photo: Pixabay

10/7/2021 – In a recent article Walter Wolf took a close look at the current development of the Elo ratings. IM Dirk Sebastian and IM Martin Voigt, who are both from Hamburg, have also examined the trends in the recent developments of the Elo ratings and try to answer the question whether there currently is an inflation or a deflation of Elo?

12/19/2020 – What does it take to become a grandmaster? Can it be almost anyone with enough willpower as U.S. president Calvin Coolidge argued, “Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence… Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent”. Or does it require much natural talent, including a high IQ score, and extensive practice? Robert Howard takes a deep look. | Pictured: Frank Marshall

4/19/2020 – Want to know an expert statistical opinion about which FIDE-strength players you should avoid facing? The Elo system is supposed to be fair toward players of all strengths, but Jeff Sonas sees major problems with the current state of the FIDE Elo rating pool, and it's getting worse each year. It will take multiple articles to walk you through the analysis, but here is chapter one of the story.

11/18/2018 – With the long-awaited World Championship match between World Champion Magnus Carlsen and his Challenger Fabiano Caruana finally underway, GM LARS BO HANSEN was inspired to revisit some analyses from the previous World Championship match in New York between Carlsen and Sergey Karjakin in November 2016. As most readers will recall, the reigning World Champion survived a scare in the regular games before eventually dominating the rapid playoff. What conclusions can we draw and how might that impact the 2018 contest? | Photo: Albert Silver

11/3/2018 – In the USA, chess fans are eagerly awaiting the World Championship match to see how Caruana fares as the first American to challenge the undisputed World Champion since 1972. But what about that other eagerly awaited contest that never was: Fischer-Karpov, 1975. It was a match that the whole chess world would have loved to see. Who can say what beautiful ideas the players would have shown us in their games? And who would have won? With statistical modelling, we can at least talk about the likely outcome of the match. Dr. MATTHEW WILSON, economics professor at Truman State University, takes a crack at it. | Artwork: Unknown (via Quora)

3/21/2018 – People are generally worried about draws, which are often considered “boring”, where games may last up to six hours. To the common viewer (non-chess player), this may seem dull, and many believe this has led to a decline in sponsorship. But what do the statistics tell us? Using data now available, Qiyu Zhou, a remarkably young scientist has undertaken a thorough study of the numbers and provides a paper on her findings.

9/19/2017 – With a staggering share of the world’s elite playing in the World Cup, vying for a spot in the forthcoming Candidates in Berlin, it was a surprise to see so many of the biggest names falling like flies by the midway point, such as Carlsen, Kramnik, Caruana and more. However, the truth is Magnus Carlsen only had a 36% chance to even make the final! Here are some eye-opening stats and numbers. | Photo: ChessBase India YouTube

4/8/2014 – Mining the ratings section of the FIDE web site, and combining it with United Nations population statistics, reveals a lot about chess and its popularity in different parts of the world. However rows and columns of numbers are difficult to comprehend. Michal Paterek, a software engineer from Poland, presents the data with some really cool interactive maps. Prepare to be stunned!

2/10/2014 – How many FIDE rated players are there in the different countries? How many open and round robin tournaments are held in each? What is the total number of FIDE rated games played per year in the world, and which country leads the statistics (guess: Russia, India, Germany, France or Spain)? And who are the greatest exporters and importers of players? Numbers and graphs by Martin Huba.

1/9/2014 – After detailed database culling, data crunching, and number calculations, Matthew Wilson brings to conclusion his findings on which is ultimately better: 1.e4 or 1.d4. While the great Bobby Fischer was content to state his preference as "best by test", here charts and mathematics rule the day. However, you will find the answer to which opening move is truly the best.

1/8/2014 – While there is no question much of chess is a matter of choice, what if you could know with mathematical certainty which is stronger: 1.e4 or 1.d4? The late Bobby Fischer swore by 1.e4, claiming it was "best by test", but that was before the era of databases. In the following article, PhD student Matthew Wilson takes a close look to answer that very question.

10/20/2013 – The title of his article and his statistical calculations brought Matthew Wilson, a mathematician and economist, a number of letters of protest. In this third installment he painstakingly answers the objections and clarifies his methods. You can work your way up to PhD level statistics if you take the pains to follow the detailed discussion in this feedback page.

8/22/2013 – Statistician Jeff Sonas has done comprehensive work on the chess rating system, showing us how optimizing various factors and parameters can yield more (or less) accurate values. Now he embarks on another line of research: slicing the actual historical data into various views and visualizing the data from those different perspectives. Here's part one of a series of articles.

3/15/2013 – "Many of you must have heard about sports betting and odds offered by bookmakers," writes Peter Zhdanov. While he is in no way interested in making money by placing bets, the analytical aspect of the problem seemed to him to be worth researching. His article is a lesson in how to precisely work out the odds in a team tournaments.