Who will win the match?

by ChessBase
11/13/2014 – The match between Magnus Carlsen and Vishy Anand is getting exciting. Four of twelve games are played, in the first two Carlsen dominated, but in game three Anand inflicted the first loss in a World Championship match on Carlsen. The fourth game was an unspectacular, hard-fought draw. Today's a rest day. A good opportunity to predict who will win the match.
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FIDE World Chess Championship Carlsen-Anand 2014

The FIDE World Chess Championship match between defending champion Magnus Carlsen and his challenger Viswanathan Anand is taking place from November 7 to 27, 2014 in Olympic Media Center located in the Adler City District of Sochi, Imeretinsky Valley, on the Black Sea.

The match is over twelve games, with time controls of 120 minutes for the first 40 moves, 60 minutes for the next 20 moves and then 15 minutes for the rest of the game, with an increment of 30 seconds per move starting from move 61. The games start at 3:00 p.m. Sochi Time, which is the same as Moscow time:

Moscow (Russia)   3:00:00 PM MSK UTC+3 hours
New York (U.S.A. - New York)   7:00:00 AM EST UTC-5 hours
Paris (France)   1:00:00 PM CET UTC+1 hour
Beijing (China - Beijing Municipality)   8:00:00 PM CST UTC+8 hours

Who will win the World Championship 2014 match in Sochi?
Vishy Anand will win the match and regain the title.90
43%
Magnus Carlsen will win the match and defend his title.87
42%
The match will end in a 6-6 draw and we will see a tie-break.30
14%

Replay previous games of the match

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1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 g6 3.Nc3 d5!? The Grunfeld must be one of the most popular ways of meeting 1.d4 at the top level of chess; however it is not part of the World Champion's common repertoire. It is clear that Carlsen is bringing new things to the table and Anand's team will have to adapt quickly. 4.cxd5 Nxd5 5.Bd2 In the face of an opening that he did not expect, Anand decides to play a variation that is relatively quiet and is far from being a theoretical duel. Bg7 6.e4 Nxc3 7.Bxc3 0-0 8.Qd2 This type of Grunfeld focuses on holding the central tension without committing White's pawn to c3, which leaves it vulnerable to the pressure from the g7 bishop. In this case White will rely on his pieces to support his d4 and e4 pawns. Nc6 Carlsen played this relatively quickly, but it is a rare line. 8...c5 has been seen in many grandmaster games. 9.d5 e6 10.Bc4 was the very recent Tomashevsky-Kasimdzhanov from the Grand Prix last month. 9.Nf3 After this move Carlsen went on a 15 minute think. Interestingly, Carlsen this time around has already revealed that his seconds are "the Dane and the Hammer" referring to Nielsen and Hammer. However, many speculated that maybe Nepomniachtchi would help Carlsen, and this line has been played by the Russian player recently. 9.Ne2 is also possible but it blocks the development of the f1-bishop. 9...Bg4 10.d5 Bxf3 11.Bxg7 This is a novelty already. 11.gxf3 Ne5 12.Be2 c6 Moiseenko-Nepomniachtchi, 0-1 August 2014. 11...Kxg7 12.gxf3 Ne5 13.0-0-0 c6 13...Nxf3? Drops a kn ight. 14.Qc3+ 14.Qc3 f6 15.Bh3 cxd5 16.exd5! Anand ruins his structure! To compensate this he now has a strong hold over e6 and will be able to kick out Black's knight from e5. For Black, he will be able to reroute this knight somewhere else that is useful and his structure remains very solid. 16.Rxd5 Qb6 starts looking bad for White. His control of the d-file is worthless as long as the knight is stable on e5, since it guards d7. Kicking out t he knight is not an option. 17.f4? e6! And the strong threat is Rac8. Black would already be winning. 16...Nf7 17.f4 Qd6 Black's blockade on the dark-squres is keeping his position together. There is no easy way to penetrate and Black will create counterplay if left alone. The idea of pushing the a-pawn down the ranks comes to mind. 18.Qd4 A fascinating strategical game. White has a clear clamp on the position, but on the long-term he is worse because of his ruined pawn structure. Practically speaking it seems as if White has the easier time finding moves, but by no means do I think Black is objectively worse. Carlsen whos great resilience in finding passive but solid moves. Rad8 19.Be6 Qb6! I like this plan. Anand can now go into an endgame, but that seems counter-intuitive. 20.Qd2?! This might be turning point. The concession seems natural; give up the good position of the queen on d4 to avoid the queen trade. However It seems that after this White has no good way of continuing. 20.Qxb6 axb6 21.Kb1 Even though this might still be far from an advantage, the possibility of quickly going to c7 with the rook and the passive position of the black rooks allow White to have some chances to create problems. Nd6 22.Rc1 f5! 23.Rc7 Kf6 24.Bd7! Ne4 25.Rxb7 is only slightly unpleasant for Black. 20...Rd6 21.Rhe1 21.Kb1 Nd8 22.Bg4 Nc6!? 22...e6 23.Bf3 exd5 24.h4!? This kind of computer idea is hard to play over the board. It is, at least immediately, not c lear to me why White has enough compensation for the pawn. There is some initiative on the queenside but Black's position does look solid. 23.h4 Nb4 24.Bf3 Rc8 21...Nd8 22.f5 Nxe6 23.Rxe6 Despite White's bind on the e6 square, it is Black that is now better. As soon as he solidifies his e7 pawn he can start working on grinding down White's structure. Qc7+ 23...Rxe6 24.fxe6 Rc8+ 25.Kb1 Qd6 is also rather appealing, but it does seem that Black might run out of ideas if the blockade must be preserved. 24.Kb1 Rc8?! perhaps letting White establish a rook on e6 is not a good way to push for any advantage. 25.Rde1 Rxe6 26.Rxe6 Rd8 27.Qe3 Rd7 28.d6! A tactical way of getting rid of his weakness. Anand is v ery close to equalizing. exd6 29.Qd4 Rf7 30.fxg6 hxg6 31.Rxd6 White's structure on f2 and h2 is still somewhat weak, but with his piece activity it does seem as if he should hold comfortably. a6 32.a3 Qa5 33.f4 Despite the computer's approval of this move, it is somewhat strange. Why push the f-pawn instead of the h-pawn? 33.h4 Qf5+ 34.Ka2 Qe5 perhaps Anand didn't want to deal with another rook endgame, considering how haunted by them he was last year... 35.Qxe5 fxe5 36.Re6= 33...Qh5 34.Qd2 Qc5 35.Rd5 Qc4 36.Rd7 Qc6 36...Rxd7 37.Qxd7+ Qf7 would force the queen to permanently defend the second rank, leaving it as a simple draw. 37.Rd6 37.Rxf7+ Kxf7 38.Qe3 a5! This would be what we have been calling a "Carlsen position". With the weak structure on the kingside Black has some chances of making progress by bringing in the king, as long as there is no perpetual, but of course with perfect play it should be drawn. 37...Qe4+ 38.Ka2 Re7 39.Qc1 a5 White has no way to improve so Black tightens the noose around White's king ever so slightly. This doesn't have a particular threat in mind, it is simply improving Black's chances. 40.Qf1 a4 With time control reached it is clear that the position is nothing but unpleasant for White. He is now passive, has to defend f4, and his king doesn't feel very comfortable. 41.Rd1 Qc2 42.Rd4 Black has to set-up some kind of lethal threat to make progress. The main thing is that if he can create real problems to the White king, White might run out of resources to defend both the king and the pawns on the kingside. Re2?! 42...Re3 The commentary team was very worried about this move appearing on the board. 43... Rxa3+! is a lethal threat. 43.Qd1 43.Rd7+ Kf8 44.Rxb7 Rb3 45.Rxb3 axb3+ 46.Ka1 Qxh2 White's badly placed king and the need to keep the queen on the first rank (or at lest protect the checkmate threats on the first rank) make this an incredibly unpleasant endgame that might just be lost. 47.Qd1! immediately threateining perpetuals. 47.Qd3 Qh1+ 48.Qb1 Qf3 49.Qxg6 Qxf4 47...Qh3! A hard move to find, especially from far away. 47...Qxf4 48.Qd8+ Kg7 49.Qd7+ Kh6 50.Qh3+ Kg5 51.Qxb3= 48.a4 Kg7 49.a5 Qe6! 50.Kb1! Qe4+ 51.Kc1 Qxf4+ 52.Qd2 Qf1+ 53.Qd1 Qc4+ 54.Kd2 Qd4+ 55.Ke1 Qe5+ 56.Kf1 Qxb2 57.Qd7+ Kh6 58.Qh3+ Kg5 59.Qe3+ Kf5 60.Qf3+ Ke6 61.Qg4+ Kd6 62.Qf4+ Kd7 63.Qg4+ f5 64.Qa4+ Ke6 65.Qc6+ Ke5 66.Qc7+ Ke4 67.Qc6+ Kd3 68.Qb5+ Kc2 69.Qe2+ Kb1 And Black has finally run away from the checks. 43...Qxd1 44.Rxd1 Rb3 is very unpleasant as Black's king will march in and once b5 is played the queenside is locked down. 43.Rb4 Now White's defensive set-up also includes pressure against the b7 pawn. Black cannot be careless with his own king. b5 Paralyzing White's position, but Anand still has an important resource. 44.Qh1! Incredibly important! Now Black's king is under threats of a perpetual. Re7 45.Qd5 Re1 46.Qd7+ Kh6 47.Qh3+ Kg7 48.Qd7+ ½–½
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WhiteEloWBlackEloBResYearECOEventRnd
Anand,V2792Carlsen,M2863½–½2014D85WCh 20141
Carlsen,M2863Anand,V27921–02014C65WCh 20142
Anand,V2792Carlsen,M28631–02014D37WCh 20143

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Live comments on playchess.com

Our team of commentators will analyse and comment the games of the match live on the playchess.com server. In four languages: English, German, French, and Spanish.

Schedule

Saturday 08.11.2014 Round 1 Daniel King, Parimarjan Negi
Sunday 09.11.2014 Round 2 Simon Williams, Nicholas Pert
Monday 10.11.2014 Rest day  
Tuesday 11.11.2014 Round 3 Daniel King, Loek van Wely
Wednesday 12.11.2014 Round 4 Daniel King, Rustam Kasimdzhanov
Thursday 13.11.2014 Rest day  
Friday 14.11.2014 Round 5 Simon Williams, Irina Krush
Saturday 15.11.2014 Round 6 Daniel King, Yannick Pelletier
Sunday 16.11.2014 Rest day  
Monday 17.11.2014 Round 7 Simon Williams, Loek van Wely
Tuesday 18.11.2014 Round 8 Daniel King, Loek van Wely
Wednesday 19.11.2014 Rest day  
Thursday 20.11.2014 Round 9 Simon Williams, Irina Krush
Friday 21.11.2014 Round 10 Daniel King, Simon Williams
Saturday 22.11.2014 Rest day  
Sunday 23.11.2014 Round 11 Chris Ward, Parimarjan Negi
Monday 24.11.201 4 Rest day  
Tuesday 25.11.2014 Round 12 Simon Williams, Rustam Kasimdzhanov

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Schedule of live commentary, TV shows, training and tournaments

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Our team of World Championship commentators (English)


Irina Krush: The female in the commentator team, several times US Women's Champion.		  
Daniel King: Well known, popular, experienced, and very good. Author of many Fritztrainer DVDs

Simon Williams: Englisher grandmaster, author of two popular ChessBase King's Gambit DVDs.		  
Chris Ward: Dragon expert and chess commentator at the London Chess Classic.

Nicholas Pert: Grandmaster, trainer, and author of a number of excellent Fritztrainer DVDs.		  
Loek van Wely: Several times Dutch champion and quick-witted chess commentator.

Parimarjan Negi: Once the world's youngest grandmaster, author of books and DVDs.		  
Rustam Kasimdzhanov: The FIDE-World Champion 2004, former second for Vishy Anand

Live commentary on Playchess is also available in other languages:

German

  • Klaus Bischoff: German Champion and Anchor of the German chess commentary on Playchess
  • Oliver Reeh: Also known as "Tactics Reeh" for his regular column in the ChessBase magazine and the ChessBase website
  • Dr. Karsten Müller: Graduated mathematician and chess grandmaster. His works on the endgame changed endgame training completely.
  • Thomas Luther: Several times German champion. Active in the FIDE commission for the handicapped.
  • Merijn van Delft: From the Dutch dynasty of the van Delfts. Lives in Hambug and in Holland.
  • Yannick Pelletier: Several times Swiss champion. With a linguistic gift he can provide commentary in a number of languages.
  • Markus Ragger: Grandmaster and Austria's number one.
  • Harald Schneider-Zinner: Chess trainer and moderator of ChessBase TV Austria.

French

  • Christian Bauer: Grandmaster, several time French Champion and member of the French national team.
  • Fabien Libiszewski: International Master and member of the French national team.
  • Romain Edouard: Grandmaster, European Junior Champion and Vice-World Junior Champion, member of the French national team.
  • Sebastien Mazé: Grandmaster and French national coaach

Spanish

  • Ana Matnadze, Marc Narcisco, Sergio Estremera

Links

The games will be broadcast live on the official web site and on the chess server Playchess.com with full GM commentary. If you are not a member of Playchess get instant access, but you can also use ChessBase 12 or any of our Fritz compatible chess programs to log on.

 

 

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The Bear The Bear 11/14/2014 11:29
Worth mentioning, We've got a brand new Anand this time around!
Carlsen can only win if he stop complicating the position in a way that result the position to be complicated to himself.
zedsdeadbaby zedsdeadbaby 11/14/2014 09:15
I was expecting articles when I clicked on the link, instead it was a poll. Looks like I think Vishy is going to win - I did not know this :)
pantheracorbetti pantheracorbetti 11/14/2014 07:54
@ Camembert

Fischer was right. The first quality to be good at chess is memory. Also,

• “A strong memory, concentration, imagination, and a strong will is required to become a great Chess player” (Bobby Fischer)
• “Chess is the art of analysis” (Mikhail Botvinnik)
• “Strategy requires thought, tactics require observation” (Max Euwe)
• “I don’t believe in psychology. I believe in good moves” (Bobby Fischer)
• “Could we look into the head of a Chess player, we should see there a whole world of feelings, images, ideas, emotion and passion” (Alfred Binet)
• “During a Chess competition a Chessmaster should be a combination of a beast of prey and a monk” (Alexander Alekhine)
• “Chess is as much a mystery as women” (Purdy)
• “Chess is everything: art, science and sport” (Anatoly Karpov)
• “Chess is the art which expresses the science of logic” (Mikhail Botvinnik)
• “Not all artists are Chess players, but all Chess players are artists” (Marcel Duchamp)

And finally…

• “Those who say they understand Chess, understand nothing” (Robert Hubner)

As you can see, chess is not just about memory and grandmasters are not just parrots. There is much more to it than having a strong memory. Chess is mathematics, analytics, logic, art, science, psychology, exercise, emotion, imagination and many other things (I’m not saying it, but the ones who are qualified to say so). If it was just a game of parroting with the help of computers, then any individual with a good memory would be replacing Anand or Carlsen at Sochi, isn’t’ it? Do you think that Kramnik, Caruana, Topalov, Aronian, Karjakin and such players don’t have good memory or don’t use computers that they couldn’t make it to Sochi? Chess is not just a game of parroting my friend. And top players are not just parrots. Let’s give them the respect they deserve. And let's enjoy their games coz that's the best we can do!
bronkenstein bronkenstein 11/14/2014 07:01
Vishy will win the match even before the tiebreak, in fact the match might even last only 9 or 10 games if he continues to play brilliantly as he did in his crushing victory over the young champ - at least that is what I hope for. I will be patiently waiting for Kasparov´s tweets in that case =)

PS just a little remark on Carlsen´s supposed ˝domination˝ in game 1 - for whatever reason people (including journalists and, strangely, even GMs) like to put an accent on the final phase of that game, forgetting that Vishy had promising position in the beginning.
Had he not misplayed his advantage (and it seems that he wanted more than just a microplus) he could even comfortably push for victory, and with reasonable winning chances according to GM Pavel Maletin, who took few days (!) to do quite extensive analysis of that game (available on the site of Russian chess federation, only on Russian thou).

Shortly, IMO the word ˝domination˝ is quite inappropriate and misleading (even somewhat populistic), or - at best - onesided, if used to describe the content of the first game.
Rinzou Wilkerson Rinzou Wilkerson 11/14/2014 04:53
Carlsen the Magnusifent!
thlai80 thlai80 11/14/2014 03:46
Anand made the mistake by taking Carlsen as his junior and revealed everything about his team of seconds during the 1st match, while Carlsen then choosed to keep it secret.

Anand major trump this time around is his secretive seconds. Remember when Kramnik, Kasparov and Carlsen himself helped Anand during his match vs Topalov ... I believe at least Kramnik is behind helping. Especially interesting is Anand managed to obtain good fighting position right after the opening rather than the dry games during the 1st edition.
samvils samvils 11/14/2014 03:40
i like this match no one can tell who will win,,,this is more exciting than the previous match,,,
cptmajormajor cptmajormajor 11/13/2014 11:25
Computers being the death of chess. Laughable.
Its a very exciting time to be a chess fan.
Only thing changed now is that everyone is an expert during the game about who is winning and what the players should have done because they sitting with a 3300 + computer telling them so. Before this, very few other than the champions at the board ,knew the story of the battle.
I'm hoping for a Magnus win.
Balthus Balthus 11/13/2014 11:21
Bostonian, who are you? Some sort of an Oracle? If you just look at 2-2, surely, it seems very similar to the previous match, where Carlsen drew first blood after this stage. But this time around, two very important psychological factors benefit Anand: (1) he has come back from -1 to level, which is emotionally central; (2) he has beaten Carlsen for the first time in so many years, and the first ever time in World Championship matches. That sure qualifies as a significant breakthrough. On Monday, I had no fears for Carlsen. Now I see a match that has opened up wide. I would estimate chances at 50-50% now. Friday will answer many questions.
Steven E DuCharm Steven E DuCharm 11/13/2014 10:38
Lovers of good chess will emerge victorious!....hopefully
Camembert Camembert 11/13/2014 06:44
Lol !
Who will win ? the Tiger or the Python/Boa ?
None of both, but the Parrot !

With all these home-prep, computer prep, it's just a question how good a parrot you can be.
Fischer said it in a famous interview, first quality to be good at chess is MEMORY.
Fischer said also " With the coming of computers, Chess is dead and it's only about books".

The game won by Anand was just a remake of the game Aronian-Adams Bilbao, 9/10/2013, where
Carlsen forgot at the 23rd move, that he should take back the pawn with the pawn and not the rook as any engines underlines it.
(I heard also it was a replica of the game Tomachevsky-Riazantsev, but couldn't find it, anyone has any info ?)

May the best Parrot win !
LOL !
Felixtiza Felixtiza 11/13/2014 06:37
The one who scores the best... or not?
H B H B 11/13/2014 06:18
Anand will win!
hpaul hpaul 11/13/2014 06:08
Hm... The poll results so far seem to suggest that there are more Indians than Norwegians. I suspected that all along.
karavamudan karavamudan 11/13/2014 04:42
Simple - Carlsen will win. But it will be closer this time. Anand should avoid time trouble, Berlin, passive

play and loss of self confidence
begamot begamot 11/13/2014 03:48
Carlsen seems agitated and tired. It could be a personal or physical issue, or, it could be his dislike for the Sochi site. He did not want to play there and it shows. Of course, he is still the favorite, as he is 20yrs younger and the match will become an endurance contest. He will drag every game out to wear down his opponent, just as he does in all his games, no surprise here. And I believe he will triumph. But, my heart is with Anand.
Bostonian Bostonian 11/13/2014 03:34
Pointless article. All the predictions have been done already before the match started. The match is still evenly tied after 4 games so predictions don't change much. The statistical favorite remains the favorite and the challenger remains the dark horse. The tide is still even.
ulyssesganesh ulyssesganesh 11/13/2014 03:07
one who displays steely nerves/determination ; makes less mistakes and has a bit of champion's luck is going to become the world champion! it can be both the MAGNIFICENT CHAMPION OR THE VICTORIOUS ACE!!!!
Anandkumar Anandkumar 11/13/2014 01:44
Expected an article with opinions of some experts. Instead, its a poll. I think Chessbase can improve its coverage of the WC match

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