Newsblog WCC Carlsen-Karjakin: Game 1 draw

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Peter B 11/12/2016 11:43

Thanks Thomas. Of course none of this matters if Karjakin plays above his rating. My point is that if the 81 point difference is a true reflection of playing strength, then an upset is very unlikely.

Thomas Beuman 11/12/2016 10:59

@ Peter B: Thanks for clarifying. With the way it is phrased here ("winning a 12 game match") I thought you didn't include the tie-breaks. With those included and the slightly altered odds I can confirm the 90.2% result.

hserusk 11/12/2016 09:45

No post game summary segment by Daniel King this time?

jarreth22 11/12/2016 08:42

@Basler88 The FIDE President is on a US sanction list connected to his past visit to Damas and did not get visa to enter US on the occasion of the WCC, so just try to get interested in facts before writing that "he woudn't show up".

flachspieler 11/12/2016 08:28

I think Carlsen's joke with the opening (Trompowski Attack) goes at
least one step further than the obvious: Let Trompowski be transcribed
as Trump-of-sky. Donald Trump won the presidential elections quasi
"out of the sky" or "out of the blue". But having chess history in mind
things might go even another step further: Paul Morphy from the US
"conquered" the chess world back in year 1857 like a meteor (so also
out of the sky). But he disappeared after a rather short span of time.
PErhaps this will also happen with DJ Trump. Just my thoughts - not
meant completely seriously.

koko48 11/12/2016 07:15

Agon as competent as always....and they want exclusive rights to broadcast the match in the interest of "promoting the game" - i.e. filling their own pockets

They decided to choose the challenger to Carlsen via Sonnenborg Berger tiebreaks in the Challenger's Tournament rather than rapid matches....Next they misspell "Championship" ("Chumpionship"?), and then make people pay for a poor feed....How long was the blackout?

Peter B 11/12/2016 05:15

Thomas Beuman - the discrepancy is because I rounded the numbers. If Carlsen has a 61% probability of winning each game, or 36% if a draw is 50% probability, your numbers are correct (Carlsen has an 89.2% probability of winning a 12 game match with tie breaks). But the per game probability is actually 61.45% [using an 81 point difference and the logistic formula of p = 1 / (1+ 10^(Rdiff/400))]; which with the same assumption (50% draw probability) translates to Carlsen having a 90.2% winning probability in a 12 game match with tie breaks.
[This assumes an equal strength difference in tie breaks; and a 4 game tie break followed by an unlimited number of 2 game tie breaks if required. I ignored the possibility of an armageddon game.]

citron26 11/12/2016 04:44

I did not realy like the commentaries for the game. Judith was perfect but the questions she had to answer was stupid

WillScarlett 11/12/2016 04:04

The "polls" all say Magnus will win. We all saw how that works out.
"Lies ... damned lies ... and statistics" - Mark Twain
Unknown, unaccredited amateur that I am- with neither pretensions nor shame - say
50-50. The match is too short and it's a toss up .

geraldsky 11/12/2016 12:35

Carlsen dedicated the move 2.Bg5 ( TRUMPovsky) to the new American president Donal Trump.

mvh999 11/11/2016 10:45

what is the URL for watching a live video feed? (free, as with all recent past WCC)

Thanks!

oxygenes 11/11/2016 08:09

@basler88
Calm down, man
First step for solving this problem was done (Trump won elections). :)

hpaul 11/11/2016 06:10

With a combined age of 51, I believe this is the youngest Chess World Championship ever.

basler88 11/11/2016 05:25

What did I say a long time ago, Kirsan Ilyumzhinov wouldn’t show up at the World Chess Match, he knows that he will be arrested for his criminal ways he does business, and at another comment I told he is a total liar about he wrote to President Obama and ask for a speedy US Citizenship? Yeh right, you can’t even show your face at such an important event, stop to lie Kirsan and step down from your high chair! You are a wanted man and yes, you’ll be some day in the US, but not on the street as you think you will be in a nice and cozy prison cell. Can the Chess Community not stop this criminal and replace him with an honest and with a high level of chess knowledge? I know someone is out there with this qualification so please step forward the Chess Players of the World would thank you!!

geraldsky 11/11/2016 02:43

This is an exciting World Chess Championship match, but expect dry and boring games and few wild games.

Thomas Beuman 11/11/2016 02:09

The numbers from Peter B, that are quoted here, appear to be wrong. My calculations and simulations agree that with 36-50-14 win-draw-loss probabilities for each game, the percentages for the 12-game match are 82-9-9. (If the tie-breaks are included, with the same odds per game, it's 89% for Carlsen.)