Eight battles, tough predictions!

by Sagar Shah
9/20/2015 – Our predictions in round three of the World Cup 2015 were a mixed bag - eleven out of the sixteen were correct. Some of the double edged forecasts which were accurate: Andreikin beating Kramnik, Jakovenko defeating Ivanchuk, Tomashevsky losing to Vachier-Lagrave, and Karjakin defeating Yu Yangyi. We continue predicting the outcomes of this extremely unpredictable format.

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World Cup

10th September – 5th October

Baku, Azerbaijan

Eight battles, tough predictions!

Peter Svidler – Veselin Topalov

Both of them have sat across each other for 47 times in their career. We tried to segregate these games based on the time format, and found out that in classical chess Topalov has been doing very well with a score of 16.5-12.5. In rapid too, the Bulgarian outperforms the Russian with 7.5-5.5. But if we go into blitz then Svidler is the better player with a score of 3.5-1.5. If statistics are to be heeded, then Topalov looks like the favourite. Also Svidler blundered big time in his game against Radjabov yesterday. The Azeri couldn’t take advantage of it and hence Peter advanced.

Prediction: Veselin Topalov

Ding Liren – Wei Yi

In a latest edition of New In Chess magazine which includes an interview with Ding Liren, the Chinese number one says, “Maybe I am just a little stream or a little hill in front of him and it’s just a matter of time for Wei Yi to pass me.” With his consistent performances Ding is the favourite to win this duel, but he seems to have great respect for his 16-year-old compatriot. And this might well come in between him winning this all-Chinese battle.

Prediction: Wei Yi

Friends off the board and foes on it! This picture was taken yesterday and you will be surprised
to see both the opponents Ding Liren and Wei Yi sitting and chatting amicably in the background.

Radoslaw Wojtaszek – Anish Giri

It’s going to be the battle between the two newly-weds. Anish has been in scintillating form, making a World Champion eat his own words:

Magnus Carlsen had predicted nine draws in the match between Anish Giri
and Peter Leko, but Anish demolished the Hungarian in just two games

Anish’s sense of humour is intact even in this high pressure event!

Radoslaw Wojtaszek hasn’t been to the tiebreaks yet but it is also true that he hasn’t faced a world class opponent. Anish’s solidity should give him an edge over Radoslaw.

Prediction: Anish Giri

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave – Wesley So

Wesley So has been pretty steady until now. His third round opponent Le Quang Liem committed suicide by marching his king up the board and ended the game in a hurry, but there are no real mistakes that Wesley has made in this tournament. On the other hand, Maxime struggled against Tomashevsky having an inferior position in some of the games before winning the rapid (10’+10”) with a score of 2-0. Nothing much to choose between them but my money is on Wesley So.

Prediction: Wesley So

Hikaru Nakamura – Michael Adams

He is 43 years old, and in the last nine days has played a whopping nineteen games (six classical, eight rapids, four blitz and one Armageddon). Where does Michael Adams get all his energy from? The thing which has separated Mickey from his opponents is his pragmatic approach in the blitz games. While Laznicka and Dominguez managed their time poorly, Adams played with great speed always having a good advantage on time. But will this strategy work against the second best blitz player in the world? Yesterday when Hikaru Nakamura was trailing the match by a point against Nepomniachtchi you could see his determination and will power to fight back. He seems like an extremely hard candidate to defeat in this format.

Prediction: Hikaru Nakamura

Pavel Eljanov – Dmitry Jakovenko

The best part for Dmitry Jakovenko in this World Cup is that he is not the only one trying for his own qualification! If Nakamura or Caruana finish in top two, then Jakovenko goes through to the Candidates 2016 on the basis of being third in the FIDE Grand Prix cycle. This will definitely give him a lot of motivation to try his best, but he now faces a player who has not even conceded a draw in this World Cup. Beating Jumabayev, Ipatov and Grischuk with a score of 2-0, Eljanov is the man in form. It’s difficult to choose between the two but Eljanov looks like the one who will come out on top.

Prediction: Pavel Eljanov

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov – Fabiano Caruana

The playing styles of both the players are quite contrasting. While the American believes in playing the best moves in the position, the Azeri tries to find the move that gives him the best practical chances. Caruana can be said to be the mild favourite in this contest, but Mamedyarov being the only local player left in this competition must be highly motivated. It seems risky but I will go for Mamedyarov in this one.

Prediction: Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Dmitry Andreikin – Sergey Karjakin

The methodical ease with which Karjakin beat Yu Yangyi with a score of 1.5-0.5 shows that Sergey is in excellent form. And if Dmitry Andreikin can beat Vladimir Kramnik there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to beat Sergey Karjakin. You will be surprised to know that the last classical game in which Sergey beat Dmitry was back in 2005 when both of them were just 15 years old. Another coincidence is that these two players met each other in the fourth round of the World Cup 2013. The classical games ended in a draw and Andreikin won both the rapid games. In October 2013 Andreikin beat Karjakin in the Russian Championships and in 2014 in the FIDE Grand Prix. If there is someone who desperately wants a revenge, it’s the 2014 Candidates runner-up Sergey Karjakin.

Prediction: Sergey Karjakin

Photos and information from the official website and their Facebook page

Fourth Round (1/8) Pairings

Player Rtg
G1
G2
G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Pts
V. Topalov (BUL) 2816
           
Peter Svilder (RUS) 2727
           
Player Rtg
G1
G2
G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Pts
Ding Liren (CHN) 2782
           
Wei Yi (CHN) 2734
 
           
Player Rtg
G1
G2
G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Pts
Anish Giri (NED) 2793
           
Radoslaw Wojtaszek (POL) 2741
 
           
Player Rtg
G1
G2
G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Pts
Wesley So (USA) 2773
           
Maxime Vachier Lagrave (FRA) 2744
           
Player Rtg
G1
G2
G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Pts
Hikaru Nakamura (USA) 2814
           
Michael Adams (ENG) 2742
 
           
Player Rtg
G1
G2
G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Pts
Pavel Eljanov (UKR) 2717
           
Dmitry Jakovenko (RUS) 2491
           
Player Rtg
G1
G2
G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Pts
Fabiano Caruana (USA) 2808
           
Shakhriyar Mamedyarov (AZE) 2736
           
Player Rtg
G1
G2
G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 Pts
Dmitry Andreikin (RUS) 2720
           
Sergey Karjakin (RUS) 2762
 
           

Links

The games are being broadcast live on the official web site and on the chess server Playchess.com. If you are not a member you can download a free Playchess client there and get immediate access. You can also use ChessBase 12 or any of our Fritz compatible chess programs.
 


Sagar Shah is an International Master from India with two GM norms. He is also a chartered accountant and would like to become the first CA+GM of India. He loves to cover chess tournaments, as that helps him understand and improve at the game he loves so much. He is the co-founder of the ChessBase India website.
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klintshin klintshin 9/21/2015 05:55
This is very great and interesting report! The writer shows democracy between these great players. Unlike the report of Mr. Ramirez where you can see his reports full of hatred, violence, and discrimination especially to GM So. I'm giving you my props mr Sagar. And I knew, most Indians are very good in any field! Good luck to you mr. Shah, i'm folllowing your report at chessbase with comfort.
disneychannel disneychannel 9/21/2015 06:04
Great game by my mamedyarov yesterday!Really motivating!I was on Caruana side,and if he wins today,I support him in the tiebreaks.Meanwhile,I think the only thing Sagar Shah predicted wrong is Wei Yi's win!Yesterday,he lost with Ding Liren.His chances look slim.But he is a monster in the White side!He will surely put pressure on Ding Liren.Expecting Giri-Wojtaszek to go to Blitz tiebreak.Oh yes,Sagar Shah's prediction of Wesley So winning against MVL doesn't look correct.And what about topa?He lost very badly yesterday after a series of mutual mistakes from Svidler.Today,he can try his chance with White but I am going with Svidler.My overall predictions:Svidler,Ding,Giri,MVL,Naka,Eljanov,Mamedyarov,Karjakin.My prediction of final:Giri vs Naka,with winning of Giri!

Regards,disneycannel.

AzingaBonzer AzingaBonzer 9/21/2015 02:49
@okneechan:

Define "early". Because the way I see it, Carlsen's struggles against the top 10 happened when he was around 16. At the age So is now, Carlsen was already the World No. 1 in ratings and challenging Anand. So it seems like So's a few years behind schedule.
okneechan okneechan 9/20/2015 07:59
Magnus Carlsen did poorly against the top 10 earlier in his career as well.
Denix Denix 9/20/2015 01:35
For me, its Ding.
disneychannel disneychannel 9/20/2015 01:29
Nope,this caurana guy is very tough,mamedyarov can't win against caruana.Wesley So might be playing good in this tournament but when it comes to elite top 10 players,he doesn't seem to score well.Thus,MVL should be able to win against Wesley So.
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